According to data released by the Ministry of Agriculture (July 17, 2026), the area under oilseeds stood at 147.09 lakh hectares, compared to 155.72 lakh hectares in the same period last year, reflecting a decline of 8.63 lakh hectares, or 5.54 per cent.

That is a serious cause for concern.

Bhavna Shah, Chief Executive Officer, Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association, said improving monsoon conditions have already started to support the sowing activity. “With monsoon conditions improving, farmers are catching up on sowing, particularly in soybean-growing areas. There is still sufficient time for acreage to improve over the coming weeks,” Shah told The Secretariat.

There is still sufficient time for acreage to improve over the coming weeks

- Bhavna Shah, Chief Executive Officer, Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association

The sharp fall in oilseed acreage this season demonstrates how closely domestic production remains tied to monsoon performance.

Soumyak Biswas, Partner, Food and Agribusiness, Government Advisory, BDO India, said a prolonged spell of deficient or uneven rainfall affects the entire edible oil value chain. “A prolonged spell of deficient or uneven rainfall can be a cause of concern for the oilseed sector not only because it affects production, but also because of its impact on the entire value chain, from farmers and processors to edible oil manufacturers, food companies and consumers,” he said.

Why Rainfall Matters

According to Biswas, delayed rainfall affects sowing decisions, input application and crop development, creating uncertainty around both acreage and yields. “Even if sowing recovers later in the season, productivity may not be optimal if moisture stress persists during critical growth stages,” he said.

When domestic production prospects weaken, companies often become more cautious in procurement and inventory planning, while concerns about raw material availability can push up procurement costs.

Even if sowing recovers later in the season, productivity may not be optimal if moisture stress persists during critical growth stages

- Soumyak Biswas, Partner, Food and Agribusiness, Government Advisory, BDO India

Over the years, the government has launched programmes such as the National Mission on Edible Oils-Oil Palm (NMEO-OP), National Mission on Edible Oils-Oilseeds (NMEO-Oilseeds), the National Food Security Mission and irrigation initiatives under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana.

Yet domestic production continues to lag behind demand.

Sudhakar Desai, president, Indian Vegetable Oil Producers’ Association, in conversation with The Secretariat earlier highlighted that the government should expand procurement so that acreage can be shifted. “The procurement can be expanded ideally to a larger number of oilseeds to make it more attractive so that there is an acreage shift from other crops, which we are in abundance,” he said.

“In terms of price and profitability, I think there’s only one thing. Oilseed growers should get the fair remunerative assured price,” he added.

How To Manage Shortfall?

If domestic production falls significantly, both industry and policymakers have a limited set of options.

Biswas said one response would be to secure imports earlier than usual and diversify sourcing across multiple countries. While Indonesia and Malaysia remain major suppliers of palm oil, buyers may increase purchases of soybean oil from South America and sunflower oil from Black Sea producers.

Highlighting the country’s continued exposure to international markets, Biswas said, “Any significant shortfall in domestic oilseed production could potentially increase reliance on imports at a time when global agricultural markets are affected by weather disruptions, freight costs and geopolitical uncertainty.”

Processors and refiners may also strengthen procurement and inventory planning by securing supplies over longer periods and maintaining inventory buffers.

For managing short-term requirements, the government would need to focus on facilitating imports, monitoring domestic availability, and ensuring the smooth movement of commodities through the supply chain to prevent excessive price volatility.

Building Long-Term Resilience

Experts argue that the real solution lies in improving domestic productivity rather than repeatedly managing shortages through imports.

Biswas said existing programmes under the National Mission on Edible Oils, the National Food Security Mission, PMKSY, watershed development initiatives and soil-health programmes can be leveraged more effectively to reduce vulnerability to rainfall variability and improve productivity.

He also highlighted the importance of climate-resilient seed varieties, micro-irrigation systems, weather-based advisory services, and technology-enabled farming practices.

Strengthening farmer-industry linkages through Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs), digital advisory platforms, and direct market-connect models could further improve crop planning and resilience.

“Ultimately, while a single weak season can be managed through trade and supply-chain interventions, long-term resilience will depend on improving domestic productivity, strengthening climate preparedness, and reducing structural dependence on external markets,” Biswas said.

For now, improving rainfall may help oilseed sowing recover during the remainder of the kharif season.