He will be the first pilot to steer the fortunes of IndiGo in its two-decade existence. He joins the airline as it marks 20 years of operations (having launched its first flight from Delhi to Guwahati and onward to Imphal on 4 August 2006).

Since then, both India's and IndiGo's global ambitions have largely been aligned.

Why Willie Walsh

Given his career profile, Walsh will probably be one of the ideal choices to steer these ambitions. 

Walsh started his career as a cadet pilot in Irish carrier Aer Lingus in 1979. Since then, he has risen from the ranks to become the CEO of British Airways in 2005. He is now joining IndiGo after demitting office as Director General, International Air Transport Association.

India stands out from Singapore, Dubai, and other global hubs due to a unique advantage: a large domestic market.

Dubai and Singapore have become hubs because they have strong airlines that back the government's objective: Singapore Airlines, in the case of Singapore, and Emirates, in the case of Dubai.

While there are at least four major commercial airlines, it is only IndiGo, with around 440 aircraft (with Air India coming up second at 185 aircraft), that has a fleet in three figures in India.

Walsh can work on creating IndiGo as an airline that carves out a new strategy and initiative, making it the preferred travel option without taking on Emirates and Singapore Airlines directly. This needs delicate footwork but is not impossible to achieve.

As a pilot, Walsh will know intimately the optimal aircraft-mission mix that will also make money for IndiGo. With Airbus 321 Xtra Long Range already in the fleet and with more to join, Walsh’s immediate task will be to identify the best domestic and international routes these aircraft can fly for IndiGo.

What Walsh Brings To The Job

Satyendra Pandey, Managing Partner, Aairavat Technology & Transport Ventures Pvt Ltd, says that Walsh has had a remarkable career spanning from a line-flying role to a pilot, and then in leadership roles in an airline where he turned around the airline, positioning it as a low-cost leader. His career trajectory does not stop there, as he later moved on to a full-service airline, then a group holding structure, and finally a global regulatory/industry body (IATA).

“This gives him [Walsh] a rare 360-degree view that few airline executives possess," he says. 

With Walsh as CEO, IndiGo raises the stakes not just for Air India but for India's civil aviation policy, since a leader of his stature will force a serious discussion on issues brought to the table, Pandey further says, pointing out that Walsh's IATA tenure gave him direct visibility into India's bilateral air services agreements (ASAs), and this may be a topic that could come up directly or indirectly.

According to Pandey, IndiGo, under Walsh's leadership, is expected to accelerate widebody and long-haul ambitions. This has been a long-standing objective for the country and the government. 

This will require discussion on MRO policy, aircraft leasing taxation, and fuel (ATF) taxation that have kept Indian airline economics uncompetitive against its global peers.

His experience negotiating with regulators across the UK, the EU, and international bodies reflects his ability to engage directly and, thereby, elevating the tone and substance of industry-government dialogue, Pandey adds, highlighting that having led IATA's advocacy for fair airport charges and infrastructure investment globally, Walsh is likely to push India on addressing airport capacity constraints and the pace of new airport/runway development to support fleet growth.

Interestingly, the Airports Economic Regulatory Authority (AERA) is currently also involved in a similar discussion on airport capex and how it is funded.

Walsh's appointment as the IndiGo CEO reframes the "strong Indian airline" objective as achievable through IndiGo's global ambitions rather than solely through Air India. 

Captain Gustav Baldauf, consultant and former first Operating Officer of Air India, feels that whatever Walsh does has to follow a certain pattern. “I define it as vision, mission, and strategy process. In his vision, I would look into the new strategy he is trying to introduce because this decision has the biggest impact on the aircraft to be used for the targets of the airline. The strategy will tell you the business models he wants to run and out of that the type and amount of aircraft he needs,” Baldauf says.

A Big Country Needs A Big Airline

As cliched as this may sound, it is true. India is aiming to become a global economic warehouse. A strong airline that can support its supply chains is important for that.

Consider this: beyond Chennai is a thriving auto business that supplies to various parts of the world. Indian companies from Aequs to Mahindra Aerospace to Tata Advanced Systems Limited are suppliers to Boeing, Airbus, and other defence and civil aircraft manufacturers who would not be able to meet their aircraft production target if Indian companies were not part of the supply chain.

But on the flip side, most of this cargo is carried on international airlines or freighters.

Airbus A350

Enter the Airbus A350, of which IndiGo has ordered 60 aircraft. The induction of these aircraft will immediately enhance the belly cargo capacity, or the amount of cargo that can be carried in the belly of the aircraft. At the moment, only Air India has six Airbus 350, and by 2028, IndiGo will start inducting the Airbus A350, which means at least two Indian carriers will be in a position to carry more supply chain cargo in their belly to satisfy the needs of Indian industry.

This will surely be something that will increase India's dependency on Indian carriers.

The induction of the Airbus A350 will also help the airline's bottom line, as apart from first class and business class seats, it is the only cargo revenue that helps an airline head towards profitability. 

The pandemic highlighted why the country requires a big airline. Initially, it was Air India that was roped in to bring Indians stranded from different parts of the world, but eventually other airlines were also given permission. If there had been no big carrier, the Indian government might have been forced to deploy military jets or foreign airline charters.

The Indian government has been trying to create the right environment for domestic airlines to operate. The evidence is the large number of open skies agreements that allow Indian carriers and carriers of other countries to connect.

The Indian west-bound air travel market is largely a Visiting Friends and Relatives market. To facilitate this, the Indian government has signed open skies policies with the US, the UK (limited open sky), and with Canada in November 2022. 

Air India is the only Indian carrier flying to the US, Canada, and Australia from India.

Walsh, with his experience in dealing with global aviation policies as the head of the IATA, will be in a position to lead IndiGo’s expansion into the US, Canada, Australia, and further into Africa. This is a time-consuming process and requires deep scrutiny of the airline, which is planning these routes. Having worn various hats as the CEO of an airline and then dealing with governments at IATA, Walsh is well-equipped to lead IndiGo as it expands into the multi-billion-dollar US aviation market.  

Challenges For Walsh & IndiGo

But it is not going to be a bed of roses. Before IndiGo can look at any more expansion into the West, Walsh will have to deal with geopolitical global realities that are affecting Indian airlines: the closure of the Pakistan airspace, the on-again, off-again war in West Asia, and, of course, the depreciation of the Indian Rupee and high taxes on ATF.

For an Indian airline, flying from north India through Pakistan airspace and onwards to the West is the most economical and least time-consuming route. But with Pakistan airspace closed and the West Asia crisis, Indian airline operations to the West are facing challenges.

While India has large airports, doing a hub operation has its own issues for airlines. For instance, one glaring deficiency in India’s ambition of becoming a hub is the lack of a fast people-moving system like a train which can, at one time, take a few hundred passengers from one terminal to another. Be it Bangkok or Singapore, they all have such systems and transport hundreds of people seamlessly every time they run. Delhi airport, a major hub in India, is getting one, but it comes almost two decades after the private sector started managing the operations of the airport. 

It is unlikely that Walsh will pilot an IndiGo aircraft during his tenure in India. An email sent to Mr Walsh seeking his comments on whether he would pilot an IndiGo aircraft remained unanswered.

Walsh joins the airline with the fiasco of December last year (when IndiGo fell short of pilots and had to cancel scores of flights, leaving passengers inconvenienced) remaining fresh in the mind of the flyer. This saw IndiGo cancel 2,507 flights and delay another 1,852 flights. It also caused inconvenience to over 300,000 passengers. The airline was fined ₹22.2 crore, and it was also castigated by the Competition Commission of India, which many felt was extraordinary, as this was probably the first time that a formal detailed order was passed, which was considered damaging for the airline. 

The December happenings are widely believed to be the cause of the departure of the former airline CEO. 

Now, Walsh will be well advised not to follow strategies that earned him the nickname “slasher Willy” (for cutting over 2,000 jobs in Aer Lingus and continuing the same in British Airways). Job loss is still considered a bad thing in the Indian market, and IndiGo can do without any more adverse publicity in the marketplace.  

(The writer is a senior civil aviation journalist. Views expressed are personal.)