China’s Air-Launched ASBM Puts Indian Warships At Risk

The combination of KD-21, the world’s first air-launched ASBM, with the H-6K bomber — a modernised variant of the licensed Chinese copy of the Soviet-era Tu-16 strategic bomber that can carry four such missiles — will have strategic and military consequences in the Indo-Pacific.

What makes the KD-21 more lethal is its ability to launch from a stand-off range with a Mach 10 terminal speed, making American carriers more vulnerable to an attack in a conflict in the South China Sea (SCS) or a war over Taiwan without exposing Chinese naval assets to the US Navy or Air Force.    

Similarly, in a conflict with India, which has neither an air-launched ASBM nor a strategic bomber, China can use the KD-21 against Indian warships and naval bases from stand-off ranges. 

Coupled with the YJ-21, carried by Type 052D and Type 055 destroyers and nuclear- and diesel-electric-powered attack submarines, the KD-21 is a formidable challenge to the navies of both the US and India. 

The latest development is part of China’s advanced air-launched anti-shipping capability, a cornerstone of its anti-access/area-denial strategy.

Strategic Bomber 

Strategic bombers are long-range, usually dual-capable heavy aircraft designed to deliver both conventional and nuclear payloads and strike deep into enemy territory to destroy high-value targets. 

Operated only by the US, Russia, and China, strategic bombers, along with nuclear-capable fighter jets, are the airborne leg of the nuclear triad, ensuring Mutually Assured Destruction and power projection.

India never opted for strategic bombers because its military doctrine focuses on regional deterrence, with China and Pakistan as the only threats and no intercontinental adversary. 

Instead, India relies on its nuclear-capable warplanes —Jaguar, Mirage 2000, Su-30MKI, and Rafale — for its nuclear triad.

However, in contested airspace, even fifth-generation fighter jets get exposed to enemy aircraft or surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries. For example, a US F-35A was struck by an Iranian Majid short-range, passive infrared-guided air defence system in March.

Moreover, fighter jets can’t carry the same payload as strategic bombers.  

Strategic bombers can also be targeted by fighter jets and SAMs. 

Therefore, non-stealth strategic bombers — B-52 or B-1B —in a strike package in hostile or contested airspace are escorted by jets, especially AWACS, electronic warfare, and SEAD aircraft.

Another big advantage of strategic bombers is striking targets from stand-off ranges without being vulnerable to air-to-air missiles or SAMs.     

Chinese Strategic Bombers Vs India

In a conflict with India, China can use its strategic bombers, numbering more than 120, against Indian land and sea military assets with or without escorting jets.

Indian Army sites and air bases will be exposed to the H-6K’s CJ-20 LACM, which can be fired from a stand-off range. 

At sea, India faces a double danger.

First is the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s long-range maritime surveillance and anti-ship bomber, the H-6J, which can carry seven YJ-12 supersonic ASCMs, its main arsenal, and has a combat radius of 3,500 km. 

The H-6J also carries the CJ-20 and YJ-63 LACMs. The YJ-63’s maximum range is 240 km, speed 0.7 Mach, and the warhead is a 500 kg shaped-energy blaster.

The second is the H6-K bomber, armed with the “carrier killer” KD-21 hypersonic ASBM and LACMs. 

Both bombers are standoff missile launchpads that can target Indian military assets on land and at sea from within Chinese airspace or Xinjiang or Tibet. 

In a strike package against India, China’s main fifth-generation stealth jet, the J-20, will escort an H-6K against Indian fighter planes and SAM batteries.

In August, China released footage of an H-6N, the nuclear-capable strategic bomber, carrying the nuclear/conventional JL-1, the world’s only long-range air-launched ballistic missile, escorted by two J-20s.

The JL-1 (range 3,000-8,000 km, speed Mach 5+ and a 600 kg warhead) has changed China’s nuclear calculus with both the US and India. 

The H-6 bombers can also target India, which lacks a fifth-generation fighter jet, without J-20 escorts, launching missiles at military bases on land and at sea from stand-off ranges without being vulnerable to Indian fighter jets or SAMs.

During the 2020 eastern Ladakh crisis, China deployed H-6 bombers as a warning to Indian airbases, missile launch sites, and other military posts near the Line Of Actual Control (LAC).

In August 2020, three H-6 bombers were seen at an airfield in the Tibet Autonomous Region. Another eight bombers were spotted at Golmud Air Base, Qinghai province. In November 2021, an H-6K bomber, stationed in Kashgar, Xinjiang, was seen flying along the LAC.

These lethal missiles, when deployed on the H-20 bomber, under development, will be the biggest danger to the Indian Navy.

Chinese Kill Chain In Indo-Pacific

The Chinese kill chain — detection, tracking and targeting —at sea comprises not only bombers/fighters, but a series of all-weather surveillance satellites in geosynchronous orbit, 35,786 km above Earth. 

The Ludi Tance-4, Gaofen, and Yaogan satellite series can track ships and provide maritime surveillance across the Indo-Pacific 24x7.

In April, China stunned the world by tracking a moving Japanese tanker near the Spratly Islands, in the SCS, from geosynchronous orbit, meaning it could track entire American naval formations in the region.

If China positions three satellites over the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific oceans, it can monitor every major shipping lane.

Indian warships and bases in the Indian Ocean or US naval assets in the Pacific Ocean could be easily targeted by Chinese ASBMs and cruise missiles launched from air or at sea if China fuses satellite tracking data with radars, drones, and intelligence networks.

The H-6K or H-6J bomber can target moving Indian warships tracked by Chinese satellites, providing real-time data from stand-off ranges.

Last December, a leaked Pentagon wargame involving several simulations showed that China could attack US surveillance and navigation satellites and launch waves of ASBMs, cruise missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs), destroying carrier strike groups, including the newest and most powerful and technologically advanced USS Gerald R. Ford, in a war over Taiwan. 

(The writer is a columnist and journalist. Views expressed are personal.)