The restriction was imposed four years ago following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Despite being the second-largest producer of wheat in the world, it never made a mark in the global market. But the larger policy conundrum is the Centre’s knee-jerk approach to exports.

Food Grains Export Policy

The country’s erratic stop-go food grains export policy has prevented the country from either becoming a trustworthy supplier or finding long-term buyers. This is not just for wheat - even in the case of rice, India has lost a sizeable market globally.

In international trade, finding a reliable supplier is the key.  For a country of India’s size, these shifts reveal how loosely New Delhi’s policy juggles between food security, inflation control, and farm incomes.

Wheat, a Rabi crop, is typically grown during the onset of winter, around October-November.

An exporter, speaking on condition of anonymity, said such roller-coaster policy decisions “do not go well with exports. The government needs to take a well-thought-out decision, not one based only on optics”.

Policy Certainty

According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, followed by the European Union (as a bloc), Australia, Canada, the United States, Argentina, and Ukraine.

It is true that India has its own domestic needs compared to developed nations. It has to feed 1.4 billion people and provide for social and welfare schemes, including free rations for a large section of people. 

However, if the nation wants to be a serious player in the global export market, it ought to craft a predictable and rule-based workable framework. The exports could be linked to a transparent buffer stock threshold, so that market participants can know with certainty when the ban would be imposed or lifted.

Why Was The Ban Lifted?

Record production, large buffer stock, and subdued prices led to the lifting of the ban. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) revised the export policy for wheat from ‘prohibited’ to ‘free’. The relaxation covers different varieties, including durum wheat, as well as flour, maida, semolina, and wholemeal atta.

Wheat, in fact, is not an isolated case. India has repeatedly used export bans and restrictions on staples such as rice, sugar, onions, and pulses when domestic prices spike. Conversely, it has occasionally allowed duty-free or subsidised imports of pulses, edible oils, and even wheat in 2016–18 to cool prices.

India is the second-largest producer of wheat after China, but its flip-flop policies have come in the way of the country becoming a serious player in the international market.

Record Production

Thanks to favourable climate conditions, the country produced a record 120.65 million tonnes of wheat during the 2025–26 crop year, up from 117.94 million tonnes a year ago. As a result, the buffer stocks, which are needed not only to service food security programmes but also to provide direction to the export-import policies, swelled.

According to a Reserve Bank of India report, “Wheat procurement during Rabi Marketing Season (RMS) 2026-27 (Apr-Mar), as on June 30, 2026, stood at 35.76 million tonnes, which has surpassed the government’s procurement target of 35.54 million tonnes. It is 19.4% higher than the procurement during RMS 2025-26.”

The Food Corporation of India (FCI) currently holds nearly 49 million tonnes in buffer stocks, far more than the normative requirement of around 20-25 million tonnes for food security and welfare schemes. In 2025–26, wheat procurement hit a four-year high, with agencies buying over 34 million tonnes in the rabi marketing season.

As of July 1, 2026, wheat stock stood at 1.9 times the quarterly buffer norms, the RBI pointed out.

With such large stocks, the government faced a dilemma -- holding too much grain is costly and risks wastage, but releasing it into the open market could depress mandi prices and hurt farmers. The current decision to lift the export ban was explicitly framed as a move to boost farm gate prices by tapping overseas demand, without jeopardising domestic food security.

The Rationale

Explaining the rationale behind the policy decision, Sanjeev Chopra, Secretary of the Department of Food and Public Distribution, said the ban had been lifted to protect farmers from any slump in wheat prices.

“The export ban has been lifted in the interest of farmers. Domestic wheat prices are depressed currently. Allowing exports will increase market prices, encourage good sowing in the coming rabi season, and help farmers receive better prices,” Chopra has said.

After the 2022 ban, domestic wheat prices initially stabilised, but in some surplus states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, farmers complained of depressed prices during the harvest season. By 2025–26, with bumper crops and full godowns, open market prices in several mandis fell below comfortable levels for growers, even as retail prices for consumers remained relatively stable.

India’s Export Bans On Onions, Rice

In December 2023, India imposed a ban on the export of onions, an essential kitchen ingredient, to contain a price surge in the domestic market. 

India exported 15.4 lakh tonnes of onions in 2024-25, the main destination being Bangladesh. The sudden ban on the export of onions became a political issue, with Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina calling out India on the issue.

Such abrupt moves have consequences: India’s onion ban led to Pakistan and Afghanistan gaining the export market. In the last three years, these two countries have come up as credible alternatives.

Besides, Bangladesh, the UAE, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and several other countries in West Asia have been the top importers of Indian onions.

An exporter pointed out that abrupt policy decisions only help competitors gain market share to the detriment of domestic players. There must be policy certainty, he stressed.

India, considered a key supplier of food to the world, needs to ensure that decisions are taken only after weighing all pros and cons.