India faces an immediate danger from the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) in both quality and quantity - and nowhere is the gap wider than in fifth-generation fighter technology. 

India kicked off the Medium Combat Aircraft programme, renamed as the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), in parallel with the Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) programme in 2010.

India wanted to purchase 166 single-seater FGFAs built by Sukhoi and to manufacture 48 twin-seaters based on 43 improvements to Russia’s fifth-generation fighter, the Su-57.

After eight years, India quit the FGFA project over a lack of proper stealth and a “modular engine concept”, doubts about the power of Saturn AL-41F afterburning turbofan engines, and Russia’s refusal to share the Su-57’s flight computer and mission software.

The AMCA design was finalised after 13 long years. The prototype isn’t expected before 2029, and production will not start before 2033-35. 

By then, China will have around 1,200 J-20s, more than double the entire IAF’s current fleet of only 29 squadrons.

India’s Hot, Cold Response To Su-57   

In December 2020, Russia hinted that India was interested in a twin-seater variant of the Su-57. 

At the Aero India 2025 show, Russia’s state-owned defence export company Rosoboronexport offered to develop the Su-57E (export version) jointly. 

At the Wings India airshow in Hyderabad in January this year, United Aircraft Corporation CEO Vadim Badekha said that Russia and India were discussing the “production of the Su-57 at the facilities used to produce the Su-30MKI”. 

In May, the twin-seater variant underwent taxi trials, and Russia again offered to develop the Su-57 jointly in June. 

Moreover, Russia has agreed to provide the Su-57’s source code so that the IAF can modify it and integrate indigenous weapons easily. Russia has also offered licensed production at HAL’s Nashik line, which already manufactures the twin-seater Su-30MKI.

However, Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh effectively shut the door to the Su-57 acquisition at the end of July.

“No, we have not thought about Sukhois,” Singh said, adding that the Super Sukhoi (Su-30MKI) upgrade programme is the priority.

Russia, however, is still willing to quickly deliver 8-10 Su-57Es fitted with the 200-km range active radar-guided R-77M beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM). India hasn’t responded to the Russian offer.  

India’s Next Aerial Combat

India’s next aerial combat, whether against Pakistan or China, will be against a Chinese fifth-generation jet. 

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is set to acquire 30-40 J-35AEs (the export version of the land variant) by year-end. 

“It will give them [Pakistan] an advantage,” ACM Singh said last year. 

In fact, during Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos against India in May 2025, the PAF didn’t deploy F-16s due to the AIM-120C-5 BVR missile (100 km) against the Chinese PL-15E BVRAAM (145 km), deployed on Chinese J-10C and JF-17 fighters. 

Like the J-20, the J-35 can carry the PL-15 and the long-range PL-17 and PL-21 (under development) BVRAAMs, both with a range of 300-400 km. It carries six missiles in its internal weapons bay and six more in “beast mode”.  

In a war with China, the IAF would face two fifth-generation fighters - and possibly, two sixth-generation jets.     

The J20 Strategic Impact

The J-20 has already been deployed at three air bases targeting India — Shigatse Air Base (Tibet), Hotan Air Base (Xinjiang), and Damxung Air Base (Tibetan Lhasa prefecture). 

The J-20’s sophisticated sensor fusion, radar integration, infrared search-and-track system, electro-optical targeting, and missile approach warning sensors detect and track targets without emitting signals. 

The J-20 is a stealthy command post coordinating with drones and fourth-generation fighters - J-10C, J-11, J-15, and J-16 - in a networked battlespace.

Fifth-generation stealth jets - like the J-20, which appears like a baseball on a high-frequency radar - have made close-range dogfights redundant, as they can snipe enemy jets from hundreds of kilometres away without being detected.  

The J-20’s missile payload shows it was designed for long-range interception, networked operations, and high-value asset destruction, not dogfighting. 

Except for the short-range PL-10 AAM (22 km), all other missiles are BVR that can snipe enemy jets: PL-12 (70 km), PL-15 (300 km), PL-16 (under development, 350 km), PL-17 (500 km), and PL-21 (under development, 400 km).

A 4th or 4.5-generation fighter - the current Su-30MKI or the Super Sukhoi (upgraded) and Rafale - can’t counter the J-20. 

The Su-30MKI’s longest-range BVRAAM is the Russian R-77-1 RVV-SD/indigenous Astra Mk-1 (110 km). Even after the integration of Astra Mk-2 (220-240 km), Astra Mk-3 (350 km) and R-37M (350-400), the Su-30MKI can’t match a stealth jet from an advanced generation.

Neither can the Rafale’s two BVRAAMs, the MICA RF/EM/IR (80 km) and Meteor (200 km), match the J-20’s BVR missile arsenal. 

India Needs To Plan For Long-Term

China aims to establish air superiority and dominance against the US in the Indo-Pacific and has long planned to counter forthcoming superior American military technology. 

India needs to plan to stop China from establishing air dominance in a conflict. 

Fifth-generation fighters play a critical role in destroying air bases, C4ISR and other military assets in a highly contested airspace.

Therefore, India should seriously consider a limited acquisition of Su-57s. The IAF would have sufficient experience with a fifth-generation fighter without waiting for the AMCA.

Recently, former IAF chief Air Chief Marshal R.K.S. Bhadauria said, “If you get the Su-57, it is as good as killing AMCA.”

What if the AMCA project is delayed? The LCA (Tejas) project started in 1983, but the delivery of 180 advanced Tejas Mk1As is still pending. Similarly, the Super Sukhoi programme, conceptualised in 2006, has kicked off after 20 years.

If AMCA is delayed, India can always buy more Su-57s after a limited acquisition.

(The writer is a columnist with more than two decades of experience in journalism. Views expressed are personal.)