India Looks To Central Asia – And Not For Warhorses

New Delhi, which held the first India-Central Asia Summit in 2022, has been quick to deepen ties with these economies, especially Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Boosting connectivity, trade, investments, and even people-to-people contacts now tops the chart of priorities. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visits to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, just ahead of the BRICS summit, were therefore closely watched. Modi was in Kyrgyzstan to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Bishkek but also undertook a tour to Uzbekistan.

Central Asia’s Rising Importance 

For India, critical minerals are essential for clean energy, electronics, electric vehicles, defence, and advanced manufacturing, making secure access to them increasingly important. 

According to the Hague Research Institute, the “region holds a notable share of global reserves” in several essential minerals – 38.6% of manganese ore, 30.1% of chromium, 20% of lead, 12.6% of zinc, 8.7% of titanium, 5.8% of aluminum, 5.3% each of copper and cobalt, and 5.2% of molybdenum.

“Central Asia’s mineral endowment is staggering but underutilised,” it said, adding that the distribution of critical material reserves across Central Asia is both diverse and strategically significant.

“We are establishing four critical mineral processing plants in India. The raw materials arriving from abroad will be processed there,” G. Kishan Reddy, Union Minister for Coal and Mines, told The Secretariat. 

Following the fourth India-Central Asia Dialogue last year, New Delhi and the five Central Asian countries announced an interest in exploring rare earth and critical minerals. 

But the key question is whether the deposits in Central Asia will be translated into dependable supplies for India.

We are establishing four critical mineral processing plants in India. The raw materials arriving from abroad will be processed there

– G. Kishan Reddy, Union Minister for Coal and Mines

A member of the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) told The Secretariat that turning this resource potential into meaningful economic engagement will depend as much on connectivity and execution as on the minerals themselves. 

Strategic Relevance

A report published by Observer Research Foundation (ORF) noted that Central Asia is part of New Delhi's extended neighbourhood and matters for energy security, critical minerals, counter-terrorism, connectivity, and the broader balance of power in Eurasia.

India’s Former Ambassador B. Bala Bhaskar said India needs a regional approach for connectivity while engaging each country separately. “In terms of a bilateral relationship, we should deal with every country based on our mutual interest. In terms of connectivity, yes, we should take the entire region as one unit,” he told The Secretariat.

The wider strategic relevance extends beyond trade. 

Uzbekistan: Trade Meets Critical Mineral Potential

Uzbekistan, a landlocked nation, is rich in magnesium, aluminium, zinc, graphite, molybdenum, vanadium, and lithium.

India and Uzbekistan identified geology, mining, and critical and strategic minerals, exploration, processing, value-added products, recycling, and integrated value chains as areas of cooperation.

In terms of a bilateral relationship, we should deal with every country based on our mutual interest. In terms of connectivity, yes, we should take the entire region as one unit

– B. Bala Bhaskar, senior diplomat

According to the joint statement issued at the end of Modi’s visit, the two sides agreed to explore cooperation in the fields of geology, mining, nuclear energy, industrial cooperation, and critical and strategic minerals, including projects for the processing of mineral resources, production of value-added products and recycling initiatives.

The joint statement called for expanding cooperation in the field of critical minerals through the implementation of joint projects in geological exploration, mining, mineral processing, and the development of integrated value chains. It was resolved that Indian companies would participate in the development of prospective mineral deposits in Uzbekistan, and Uzbek enterprises will collaborate in India.

The leadership of the two countries decided to elevate bilateral relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and achieve bilateral trade of US$ 5 billion by 2030. Bilateral trade has nearly doubled from US$ 342.53 million in FY2021-22 to US$ 672.55 million in FY2025-26, driven largely by India's exports, which rose from US$ 271.18 million to US$ 657.91 million. India's imports from Uzbekistan, however, declined from US$ 71.35 million to US$ 14.64 million over the same period. 

Kazakhstan: Declining Trade, Significant Mineral Potential

Although trade between India and Kazakhstan increased in FY2022-23 to reach US$ 641.62 million, the figure has dropped to US$ 266.89 million in 2025-26. Over the same time period, India's exports fell from US$ 436.50 million to US$ 185.23 million. 

But Kazakhstan has another opportunity: 75,600 tonnes of lithium, 208,121 tonnes of cobalt, 1 million tonnes of molybdenum, and 45.61 million tonnes of titanium. 

The challenge, however, is turning mineral deposits into dependable supplies for Indian industry. “The objective should be to secure supply chains, not merely secure mineral deposits,” the FIMI expert said.

That would require Indian companies to look beyond buying ore and participate across the value chain, including exploration, mining, beneficiation, processing and long-term offtake arrangements.

The FIMI expert also cautioned that Central Asia should be viewed as a diversification opportunity rather than an overnight replacement for existing suppliers. The region’s mineral potential can strengthen India’s supply options, but building dependable flows would require sustained investment in projects, infrastructure, and commercial linkages.

Kyrgyzstan: Small Trade, SCO-Driven Strategic Opening

The trade volume between India and Kyrgyzstan is not significant but has grown from US$ 34.68 million during 2021-22 to US$ 58.45 million in 2025-26. Most of the exchanges are with India, with imports from Kyrgyzstan growing to US$ 13.89 million. The relationship also took fresh momentum during the August meeting of Prime Minister Modi with President Sadyr Zhaparov, where both the leaders agreed to deepen economic and commercial ties. India also sought connectivity, which enhances trade, during the 26th SCO Summit in Bishkek.

Tajikistan: Export-Heavy Relationship

India's bilateral trade with Tajikistan has been increasing at a moderate pace, growing from US$ 46.09 million during 2021-22 to US$ 58.91 million in 2025-26. More striking, however, is the growing gap: Indian exports rose to US$ 58.12 million while imports from Tajikistan were just US$ 0.79 million in the last year. There is ample scope to expand the partnership beyond India's shipments, especially through increased connectivity and business ties, to facilitate more bilateral trade.

Turkmenistan: Imports Driving Trade Growth

Turkmenistan, however, is the only Central Asian market to buck the trend in the latest trade data. India-Turkmenistan trade has more than doubled from US$ 114.36 million in 2021-22 to US$ 278.16 million in 2025-26, but the trade composition has shifted sharply. 

India's imports from Turkmenistan jumped by 2025-26 to US$ 186.30 million, while exports were valued at US$ 91.86 million. The change is notable because it makes Turkmenistan the most obvious case in the five-country group where India's imports now exceed its exports.

The shift is also indicative of the fact that India's Central Asia policy is not solely about exports. The area could also be a source of goods and strategic resources for India and thus help achieve a more balanced trade relationship.

Challenges To Diversifying

India is building the capacity needed to process critical mineral raw materials sourced from abroad. Speaking about the four plants for processing critical minerals, Union Minister Reddy said, “Two states, Maharashtra and Gujarat, have already announced incentives for these plants, including for power, land acquisition and taxation, and we are also discussing this with Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.”

India is, however, dependent on China for critical minerals.  In 2023-24, the biggest volumes of rare earth metals and compounds came from China, with a total of 699 tonnes and 780 tonnes.

Central Asia thus provides India a chance to diversify its sources of critical minerals and its trade ties generally. The FIMI expert noted that mineral resources in the region alone are not the answer to the challenge of the supply chain. 

India remains poorly connected in trade, with freight fares and delays, and the lack of reliability of the landlocked routes, impacting the competitiveness of trade with Central Asian markets. 

For this opportunity to grow, Chabahar and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) should become more predictable and commercially viable. Poor connectivity has also been identified by ORF as a big challenge in the economic engagement between India and Central Asia.

Different Markets, Different Approaches

The five markets also call for varied approaches. 

Uzbekistan has the biggest trade relationship, Kazakhstan is the country with the largest mineral potential and a recent slowdown in trade, whilst Kyrgyzstan has a smaller market, but a renewed strategic relationship. Tajikistan's exports are still strong, and Turkmenistan has become a more significant import source.

The opportunity for India is therefore two-sided: exports to Central Asian markets, but also to establish reliable supply routes to acquire crucial minerals and other commodities from the region. 

The success of that strategy will, however, involve more than just diplomatic engagement: whether connectivity, investment, and mineral cooperation can be transformed into commercially viable supply chains.