Gulf’s Changing Dynamics: Opportunity For India’s Strategic Outreach

While Pakistan may try to exploit current fault lines in the Gulf, it is neither reliable nor a long-term partner for the region, which would increasingly seek India’s human resources for economic prosperity. Islamabad’s history has been that of seeking grants from Gulf monarchies rather than providing market opportunities and skills.  

The First Gulf War resulted in the US increasing its presence across the region, but the ongoing conflict may witness the US reducing its military presence in the region. The writing is on the wall. The Gulf region has been stunned by Iran’s response and resilience, and has come to the conclusion that the USA security architecture alone cannot provide adequate deterrence.

Trilateral Defence Pact

The trilateral defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan is a result of this. But this alone would not suffice for the Gulf states. Each of the Gulf states is seeking to enter into an arrangement with Tehran, either individually or through collective action. Oman is better placed given its traditional neutral foreign policy and historical ties with Tehran.  

The war was intended to weaken Iran and its regime. Rather, Tehran is emerging as a key pillar of any decision-making in the Gulf. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) used low-cost drones, mines, and small vessels to control the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of global oil and gas. Cargo traffic along the UAE coast dropped during the April-May period. Oil producers – Oman and Saudi Arabia – saw revenue surges from higher oil prices, while Kuwait and Iraq could not negotiate with Iran. 

The UAE and Qatar have reached an understanding with Iran to stop attacks on their territories. Israel has ambitions to emerge as a pole, hoping that more states will join the Abraham Accords and, ultimately, seek a security architecture to hedge against Iran. This plan did not work as per Israeli calculations.  

The situation is more complicated than it appears amid Saudi Arabia-UAE tensions and their competing interests in Somalia and Sudan. The UAE has ambitions to emerge as a significant player from the Gulf, but Saudi Arabia continues to be the pole. India needs to tread a cautious line rather than getting drawn into any UAE-Saudi tensions. Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi will continue to be significant partners for India for the coming decades. Egypt, which has the strongest military across the entire Arab World, is also hedging its bets and seeking wider partnership with New Delhi.

The Gulf region is shifting from relying on a single security protector to practicing strategic hedging, diversifying military partnerships, and prioritising pragmatic, multipolar economic ties. The Gulf states are building multilateral defence partnerships involving players from as far away as South Korea. 

India-UAE Strategic Defence Partnership

The situation has provided an opportunity for India’s strategic outreach. India’s defence hardware, such as BrahMos missiles, has created headlines in Southeast Asia in China’s backyard. Reports are now emerging that Thailand may consider purchasing BrahMos missiles. India-UAE Strategic Defence Partnership could be a template for India’s outreach to other Gulf states.

Saudi Arabia and New Delhi can open a dialogue on expanding the scope of its defence industry partnership, as Indian defence hardware has proved its mettle, unlike that of Pakistan, which still functions on borrowed weaponry. India and Saudi Arabia share a strong and growing bilateral defence partnership that encompasses military exercises, naval cooperation, and strategic dialogue. Simultaneously, India and Oman have the opportunity to further strengthen a decades-old defence partnership.  

Even as India continues to nurture its ties with Iran, the changing dynamics of the Gulf region have provided India with a unique opportunity to upgrade its strategic outreach in this extended neighbourhood. The opportunity should not be missed.   

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics and geoeconomics. Views expressed are personal.)