After 20 years of the formation of BRICS and 17 since the first summit in 2009, an objective impact evaluation of its effectiveness and achievements is surely called for. The global order, as it emerged after the second world war 76 years ago, is now increasingly dysfunctional.  It is neither in sync with the realities of the present century nor responsive to the aspirations of emerging economies like India and other BRICS members. 

In this context, the principal argument of this essay is that BRICS, with its expanded membership, must recognise its pivotal role in putting in place a new global order that is in sync with the existing and evolving realities of this century. A global order that works for achieving the threefold objective of (i) achieving acceptable levels of human development indicators for the majority of the global population; (ii) at the same time ensuring that planetary boundary conditions are not breached; and (iii) that the trend for widening divergence between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ across countries be reversed and the global economy is put on a path of achieving convergence, which has been the universally accepted objective of development experts.  

With its expanded membership (excluding for the moment the partner countries), BRICS are well placed to influence the global development trajectory towards achieving this three-fold objective. It represents nearly half the world’s total and working age population; two-fifths of global economic activity; and a quarter of world trade.

Playing To Its Strengths

Estimates vary, but on a conservative basis, BRICS accounts for nearly 50% of global fossil fuel (oil, gas and coal) reserves and a similar share in fossil energy production. BRICS nations generated more than half of global renewable energy, with their installed capacity accounting for 55% of the world’s total installed renewable capacity, with the growth in renewables far outpacing that in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) economies.

One fifth of global capital outflows originated in the BRICS member countries, and together they increased their volume of capital inflows from US$ 84 billion in 2003 to more than US$ 300 billion in 2024.

With China leading in 57 of the 64 frontier technologies, according to the Institute for Strategic Studies, Sydney and India and Russia also witnessing a surge in innovations, BRICS nations have also emerged as a technologically dynamic bloc, with significant potential for transfer of technology among the member countries. 

With an average median age of 29 years - excluding Russia and China - BRICS continues to be the source of skills that can adapt to evolving technologies. 

From the above discussion, the conclusion is inescapable - given its multi-dimensional strengths, BRICS can and should play a pivotal role in shaping the emergent world order. It is well placed to contest the hegemonic role that the G-7 has so far played in shaping the nature and direction of the world economic institutional structures. 

Global Public Goods

BRICS has to now make the necessary transition from a glorified talk shop to a platform which will have global impact and influence. To this end, it will be essential to choose a set of global public goods which, because of their very nature, require collective and cooperative action for moving towards the desired goals.

Three global public goods come to mind in which tangible progress can be made and measured. These are collective action for preventing planetary boundary conditions to be breached; second, minimise and eventually eliminate trafficking in drugs and people, especially women; and third, improving developing countries’ access to commercial credit and global capital flows. 

All three suggested objectives share the characteristics that they must be tackled by a group of countries that have the necessary resources and clout on the world stage to make a difference. And more importantly, perhaps, progress in all three can be measured in clearly defined terms. It is well established that ‘what cannot be measured cannot be evaluated’. Therefore, BRICS should establish quantifiable targets for each of the three above-stated objectives.

For environmental protection, it will not suffice to declare that BRICS also desires to prevent global temperatures rising above the two-degree catastrophic threshold. They must set some more specific outcome targets for themselves and mobilise the required resources to establish current baselines and undertake the required measurements at regular intervals. An example would be to establish the present geographies of some major glaciers in the world and then to measure the rate at which these are receding annually. BRICS must then design a collaborative programme for reducing the recession of glaciers and publish the data in the public domain. 

The baseline for the other two objectives is most likely already available in the public domain. BRICS can aggregate them in a manner that is universally acceptable. BRICS can then establish the appropriate group of ministers to design, implement and monitor the measures required to achieve these targets in a time bound manner. Setting up these collaborative efforts for tackling global public goods and establishing the relevant impact evaluation measures will give BRICS the global public credibility and also the self-confidence to act as a convergent bloc in various multilateral forums. This is the only feasible way to emerge as a challenger to the present-day hegemony of the G-7 in shaping and influencing global affairs. 

Successful Precedent

A successful precedent for such a collective already exists in the form of BASIC- the formation that brought Brazil, South Africa, India, and China together at the Conference of the Parties (COP) 15 summit in Copenhagen in 2009. The four countries (all members of BRICS) came together to directly negotiate the final declaration with President Barack Obama. This was the beginning of the much-lauded voluntary pledges by all carbon emitters for reducing emissions and to contribute US$ 100 billion every year to finance action on environmental protection. The dependence on advanced economies for financial contribution has scuppered the effort for resource mobilisation. 

Learning from the BASIC experience, BRICS can emulate this precedence with the critical difference that they will determine the targets that can be achieved primarily through collective and collaborative action by their own member countries. 

Given their substantial collective resources and strengths, it is time for BRICS to take the lead in tackling the challenges posed by the three global public goods and expect the advanced economies to follow their lead. This will be the beginning of a new collaborative global effort that will help reverse the present ill-conceived pursuit of narrowly defined national self-interest. 

(Rajiv Kumar is Chairman of the Pahlé India Foundation and former Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog. Views are personal)