As India-US Ties Hit Turbulence, Safeguard Strategic Autonomy

The trade deal appears unachievable in the near future, even as US Envoy to India Sergio Gor presents a positive picture of ties and plans are on to host Secretary of State Marco Rubio for the second time this year. This may well be any Secretary of State’s toughest visit to India in years, as his President, Donald Trump, wants to bargain hard with the world’s biggest democracy. 

The partnership that has been built painstakingly since 2000 has not collapsed yet, but the US administration’s transactional approach, bulldozing the rights of a sovereign nation, is threatening to deepen the mistrust. 

Troubles In Tech Partnership 

The US has the world’s most advanced technology system. 

India is an upcoming technology power and provides scale that companies dream of. Instead of a partnership model with a non-treaty ally, the US seeks complete access to the Indian technology ecosystem, which can not only challenge India’s sovereignty but can also make Indian citizens depend on one country.  

Elon Musk has blamed “certain oligarchs” for holding up the launch of his satellite internet service Starlink in India to maintain their “monopolistic chokehold” on the Indians. New Delhi has rejected the suggestion that its satellite approval process was unfair. 

The SpaceX CEO made the remarks on social media platform X, which he also owns, while responding to a post arguing that India needs Starlink to connect areas beyond the reach of conventional networks. The post said 11,256 Indian villages still lacked 4G coverage as of May. 

Simultaneously, in a blow to Indian IT majors, the US suspended several companies from the Permanent Labour Certification Programme, which lets firms apply for green cards for H-1B visa workers, arguing that the practice takes away jobs from Americans. The affected companies include Cognizant, Infosys, Tata, Wipro, and HCL.

The announcement also impacts Western majors like Capgemini, Microsoft, and Adobe.

The double blow in a single day may impact partnerships in the sector that was supposed to drive the Indo-US story in this century and build a model to provide an alternative or option to the Chinese model. Instead, the US want intrusion into the Indian technology ecosystem, impacting India’s sovereign rights and denying skilled Indians opportunities that have been benefiting the US economy for decades. 

It should also be clear that talent mobility adds value to both economies. While it creates opportunities for Indians, it helps US companies equally with cutting-edge talent, innovation, research, productivity, competitiveness and job creation, besides creating shareholder wealth in the US. The history of the US itself has been shaped by generations of immigrants whose labour, enterprise and innovation have contributed to its growth and prosperity. US Vice President J.D. Vance, who is married to an Indian migrant, may someday regret his comments that have humiliated millions of Indians. 

The US decisions in the long term may serve as a silver lining, as this would enable Delhi to build its own technology ecosystem, giving sovereign choices.

Trade Deal, Tariffs, And Energy Rights

Optimists, along with Indian and US business chambers, may still be hopeful of an interim trade deal and a trade deal that would keep well-oiled trade ties in place. But the reality is different, with pessimism expressed by no less than the Finance Minister of India, Nirmala Sitharaman. 

In her words, the India-US trade deal talks have hit a plateau, beyond which giving or taking might be “very, very” difficult. India has built significant expertise in negotiating such FTAs and Indian negotiators would have hoped for a similar outcome with the US, but there has not been favourable commitment on tariff rate and Most Favoured Nation status. The US investigations into trade practices also continue.   

The same US that once encouraged India to buy Russian oil to keep global markets steady is now threatening to impose 100% tariffs if New Delhi continues to purchase Russian oil, ignoring the constraints of supply chains from the Gulf following the US-Israeli attack on Iran. 

The Indian government is not only worried about the requirements of its 1.5 billion population but also global energy prices in the absence of the Russian crude at a time when Iranian crude is also absent from the market. New Delhi’s multi-alignment policy is the choice that it made about safeguarding sovereign choices. It is also no secret that India’s trust in Moscow, built over decades, runs deep, and Delhi will withstand all pressures to safeguard its strategic partnership.  

Way Forward 

It was people-to-people ties and the large Indian migrant community in the US that created the foundation for the Indo-US strategic partnership we see today. The 1991 reforms created the basis for the trade partnership that exists today. 

But the difficulties created for Indian techies and India’s businesses will force the need for diversification and push the techies and the business community to explore various developed and emerging markets. It is never too late to distribute the eggs in various baskets. Simultaneously, the Indian government needs to have a reality check on its US policy and safeguard its strategic autonomy.

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics and geoeconomics. Views expressed are personal.)