Iran Crisis: India's Tough, Strategic Balancing Act

The current Iran crisis is no exception. While India-Israel partnership has widened and deepened over the years, with technology being a new area of focus, New Delhi cannot be viewed as taking sides and needs to put in place a smart strategy to handle the evolving situation. A nuanced approach without compromising India’s partnership with Israel is imperative.

Iran’s Significance 

Iran’s geographical significance and its weight in regional affairs cannot be underestimated. Once an aspiring middle power, Iran may be weaker currently than it has been in decades. Yet Tehran remains critical to counter-balance Pakistan, as a gateway to Eurasia and Afghanistan besides Armenia. The International North Transport Corridor (INTSC) and the Chabahar Port, despite years of delay in putting in place, are significant regional connectivity initiatives.

Despite several pulls and pressures, India has managed to hold on to the two connectivity projects that run parallel to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. That India negotiated skillfully to gain a sanctions waiver from the US for the Chabahar Port is no mean feat. The INSTC provided one of the gateways for trade between India and Russia since the Ukraine war.

Iran has played a critical role in cementing India’s strategic partnership with Armenia by allowing India’s military supplies through its territory and airspace. Interestingly, a Christian Armenia has centuries-old ties with Persia and Iran, and their partnership has been important to counter-balance Azerbaijan in the regional context.

Ironically, Shia-majority Azerbaijan is close to the Sunni majority Turkey and Israel and often views Iran as a threat that could disturb internal order in Azerbaijan. That Israel’s close partnership with Azerbaijan and India, each on a bilateral basis, did not contribute to bringing Baku closer to New Delhi shows that each state pursues its own realpolitik based on its interests.

Why Stable Iran Is Important 

Whether Iran is ruled by Shia clergy or a moderate and nationalist group of politicians is a choice that Tehran has to make. What is important, though, is the stability of the country of Iran and the resources that it possesses. A stable Iran is key maintain regional balance amid contesting interests. To also hope that the regime in Iran will collapse overnight following the military strikes and a popular uprising will take the centre stage may remain a dream. Despite external influences and resentment among a section of the population, an Opposition figure is still missing in Iran around whom the population can coalesce. 

Notwithstanding the targeted military strikes eliminating several key figures in the Iranian establishment, the regime remains intact, showing no major signs of cracking. It is said that the Iranian government, anticipating the US-Israeli strikes, had put in place four layers of succession plan for each key post. 

Complicated Power Structure 

The power structure in Iran, despite having a Supreme Leader, is decentralised with several power centres in the middle. Pride in Iranian civilisation and nationalism runs deep, notwithstanding reservations against the slain Supreme Leaders and tough tactics to control dissent. 

Iran’s complicated power structure makes it hard for the government to be dismantled. The highest authority is the Supreme Leader, who holds direct or indirect power over all matters of state — from foreign policy to domestic politics. He appoints key officials, including the heads of state media and the judiciary, and has representatives in nearly every major organisation.

The Supreme Leader is elected by the Assembly of Experts, an elected body of Islamic clerics tasked with selecting, supervising, and — if necessary — dismissing Iran's Supreme Leader. Iranian presidents serve four-year terms and are responsible for managing day-to-day governance and representing the country in international diplomacy.

Presidents cannot override the Supreme Leader on matters of strategic importance. The Guardian Council is tasked with ensuring that legislation passed by Iran's parliament complies with the constitution and Islamic principles. The 12-member body wields significant power: Six members are Islamic clerics appointed directly by the Supreme Leader, while the remaining six are legal scholars selected by parliament. 

Another key institution is the Expediency Discernment Council, a powerful body tasked with mediating disputes between parliament and the Guardian Council. The most important pillar of the current regime is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) -- an elite military force responsible for protecting the Islamic regime from internal and external threats. 

IRGC also controls the paramilitary Basij militia, and runs the foreign special operations Quds Force and has all three wings of military, and over the decades has developed deep economic interests. 

Exemplary Grit

This layered and complex structure makes it extremely difficult to dislodge the regime. The grit currently displayed by Iran is exemplary. The US also failed to anticipate Iranian attacks on the economic hubs across the resource-rich Gulf states.

While the US was prepared for retaliation against its bases across the Gulf states, the attacks on economic hubs took the international community by surprise, creating global panic. Iran has taken a calculated risk by targeting the neighbouring countries, and if the Gulf states prevail upon the US to withhold a military campaign, then Tehran’s strategy would have succeeded.

But this also runs the risk of schism between Gulf states and Iran for years to come. India, having deep interests with both parties of the conflict need to pursue a balanced approach and smart diplomacy. The stakes are too high to take sides.

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics. Views are personal.)