Iran Quagmire: Why It Is Key To Maintain Stability In India’s Neighbourhood

The regional implications will be catastrophic and the Sunni majority states, many of whom are allies of the US, are not prepared for any limited or large-scale attack against Tehran. While Iran’s hardline theocracy may not have deep connections with the Sunni world, nations such as Saudi Arabia have been advising US President Donald Trump against launching any attack on Tehran. 

That Trump has so far not launched any attack against Tehran is a testimony to the fact that he is uncertain of the outcome of such a move. 

The clergy in Tehran may weaken but definitely will not be uprooted even after a limited or a heavy attack and Trump may not electorally benefit from this move at home. 

Opinion polls have repeatedly shown the rising unpopularity among American voters when it comes to military action in Iran.

A limited attack to gain an upper hand in the negotiations in Tehran may not work as Iran is a battle-hardened nation and are capable of handling such situations. Further acting as a deterrent, the Democratic Party lawmakers in the US House of Representatives have said that they will force a vote on a bill that would require Trump to seek Congressional approval before a possible attack on Iran.

The American President, who claims to have ended eight wars, therefore is indecisive as instability in Iran will hit Israel, US’s closest ally in West Asia. Tel Aviv itself is uncertain of a definite outcome from an attack on Tehran given that the clergy is well protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and paramilitary forces amid the nationalism factor among the people of Iran.

Israel is keen to have deterrence against Iran’s missiles and desires that the US should not offer major concessions while trying to reach a deal with Tehran. What is also missing in action is the absence of a strong Opposition figure in Iran around whom the young population can rally. 

Oman’s Role 

The last round of talks between the US and Iran in Geneva mediated by Oman has been the most intense round of talks so far. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi says “good progress” was made on the nuclear issue and sanctions relief, but differences remain. Oman remains a trusted partner for both Iran and the US and has played an important role in defusing tensions between the two nations in the past. 

Oman often remains understated and under the radar but plays a significant role in keeping the Persian Gulf stable. 

It is among the very few countries that the US and Iran trust. Muscat would have played the role of dealmaker if any war had  to be avoided. 

India’s Position

The West Asian states want to avoid any conflict that can hit Iran. While they fear Iranian reactions on their soil, India too does not favour any instability in the Persian Gulf region. New Delhi has remained firm – it prefers dialogue over war. 

The West Asian states house nearly 10 million Indians – their remittances are critical for several families in India. 

The region importantly is a source of energy for India and restrictions on purchase of Russian oil have increased New Delhi’s dependence on West Asia yet again. The markets of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and wider West Asian region are also significant as Indian traders seek to diversify and reduce their dependence on the US. 

The critical India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) project has already slowed due to the Gaza conflict. It can further be impacted if fresh conflicts breaks in the Persian Gulf region. 

An unstable Iran will undoubtedly be a setback for India’s connectivity to Afghanistan, Central Asia and Russia. It would be a setback for the International North–South Transport Corridor (INTSC) and the Chabahar Port in which India remains invested despite external pressure.  

Tehran has offered to temporarily freeze uranium enrichment but has rejected the idea of permanently finishing enrichment, or transferring its stockpile to the US,  which could mean transferring the same to Israel. 

Besides, Tehran is not in favour of halting its ballistic missile programme which it feels gives it a chance to fight back against Israel. 

Iran is also hoping for Chinese military support in case of a US attack and Beijing on its part can test its weapons against the American system in case a war breaks out. The Chinese tested their weapons against the Russian and French platforms during Operation Sindoor through Pakistan but did not achieve the desired success. 

Iran, therefore, must be cautious against relying on Chinese weapon systems. Dialogue and diplomacy and pragmatic approach will be required from Tehran instead of an inflexible approach to avoid a war that would lead to catastrophe. Persians have handled several powers for centuries and need to bring all their skills to play to maintain stability of the resource rich country and importantly the region.         

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics and geoeconomics. Views are personal.)