BJP Facing Tough Coalition Tightrope Walk Before Swearing-in

In today’s new reality, having to lean on NDA partners for a majority position and form the Government, the BJP is facing coalition pressures for the first time, in a decade. Just a few days before the swearing-in ceremony, the BJP-led Government-in-waiting finds itself on unfamiliar ground – ministerial and key berths are being finalised this time with some very demanding partners constantly hovering, making their weight felt and watching every move like a hawk.

As the swearing-in of the new Cabinet nears – it is slated to take place on Sunday – Mr Narendra Modi, Prime Minister 3.0, is still busy ironing out the last-minute glitches that the coalition machinery is facing. The biggest issue playing truant is continued hiccups in choosing credible and experienced faces for the new Cabinet. And the BJP  is out to find a balm acceptable to all.

Twin Challenges To On-board ‘Right’ Cabinet

There are two key challenges. One, as many as 19 ministers in the Narendra Modi Cabinet from different parts of the country lost in the recent Lok Sabha elections. Two, Modi faces the delicate task of appeasing and accommodating critical allies like the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and JDU, along with some smaller ones, all of whom lent support to the BJP to enable it to cross the 272-seat majority mark. Partners for long, these parties are suddenly proving to be tough cookies, especially TDP, which is known to be the tough negotiator.

“Modi has never worked in a situation where the BJP is not sitting comfortably on 272-plus seats of its own. This has thrown up a serious, new challenge for him,” said Deepak Kumar, Assistant Professor, Shyam Lal College, Delhi University. However, while BJP’s overall numbers are short of 272 in the Lok Sabha and key ministers have lost in the elections, the party always has the Rajya Sabha route readily available for a quick stroll. With its strong showing in many state-level elections, that path is open to the BJP to get in any of its better-performing ministers who lost out in this election, to make up its ministerial wishlist.

Lack Of Popular Faces In UP And Rajasthan

Among Modi’s ministers who lost the recent elections are people like RK Singh, Smriti Irani, Arjun Munda and Rajeev Chandrashekhar. It is noteworthy that such losses have been more in the Hindi Heartland, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, than in southern India.

As many as six Cabinet Ministers lost in UP alone, and amongst them was  Smriti Irani failed to make the grade from Amethi, losing to Gandhi family loyalist Kishori Lal Sharma.

Ajay Prasad Teni, Union Home Minister for State, tasted defeat at the hands of Samajwadi Party leader Utkarsh Sharma. Teni has the dubious distinction of gaining prominence when his son allegedly ploughed his SUV into farmers protesting against farm laws in Lakhimpur Khiri.

Mahendra Nath Pandey, outgoing Union Minister for Heavy Industries, lost the Chandauli seat in Uttar Pradesh to Birendra Singh of the Samajwadi Party, who defeated him in a close fight by a margin of 21,000 votes.

Another below-par performance for the BJP was that of Kaushal Kishore, outgoing Union Minister of State for Housing and Urban Affairs, who surrendered the Mohanlalganj seat to RK Chaudhary of the Samajwadi Party. Other losers in UP include Sanjeev Balyan, senior Cabinet Minister, who was defeated by Samajwadi Party candidate Harendra Singh Malik in Muzaffarnagar.

Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti, outgoing Union Minister of State for Consumer Affairs, Food and Distribution, was defeated by Naresh Chandra Uttam Patel of the Samajwadi Party. 

Filling In Cabinet Posts Not A Challenge: BJP

Admitting that the BJP had its share of reversals in UP, party spokesperson Gopal Agrawal said: “We have had losses in UP and other places, with some senior leaders losing too. However, bringing in new Cabinet colleagues will not be a challenge for the Prime Minister.”

In Rajasthan, for instance, Kailash Chaudhary, outgoing Minister of State for Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, lost the Barmer seat to Ummeda Ram Beniwal of the Congress Party. In fact, Chaudhary’s performance fell well short of expectations, as he came in a distant third in this contest, with independent MLA candidate Ravindra Singh Bhati bagging second place.

Senior Ministers Who Lost In South And West 

Among other popular Cabinet faces who lost in the election race are Rajeev Chandrashekher, outgoing Minister of Electronics and IT, who lost the Trivandrum seat to Shashi Tharoor of the Congress Party. V Muraleedharan, outgoing Union Minister of State for External Affairs, contested from Attingal and lost to Congress candidate Adoor Prakash. L Murugan, outgoing Minister of Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairy, lost in the Nilgiris to DMK candidate and former telecom minister A Raja.

In Maharashtra, outgoing Minister of State for Railways Rao Saheb Danve lost the Jalana seat to Congress Party candidate Kalyan Vajinath Rao Kale.

Faces From The East Who Lost Out

Influential BJP leader and outgoing Power Minister RK Singh lost the Arrah seat to Sudama Prasad of the CPIML (L). Arjun Munda, Union Tribal Affairs minister, suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of Kalicharan Munda of the Congress Party in Jharkhand’s Khunti seat.

In West Bengal, the BJP faced a double whammy when two of its ‘minister leaders’ lost. Subhash Sarkar, outgoing Minister of State for Education, lost the Bankura seat to AITC’s Arup Chakraborty. Outgoing Minister of State for Home and Youth Affairs Nishit Pramanik lost the Cooch Behar seat to Jagadish Chandra Barma Basunia of the TMC.

Against this backdrop, with many BJP’s heavyweights not making it to the new Parliament, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will have some careful conferring to do with his now stronger coalition partners before making the choice of new ministers in his Cabinet 3.0.

JDU Will Also Behave Differently

As an alliance partner, the JD(U) had only one minister (RCP Singh) in the Modi 2.0 Cabinet. That will be a sensitive factor to take note of this time, given the two parties’ partnership history – even in Bihar, there were some disagreements between the two on the issue of the number of ministers in the Cabinet. This has escalated into a dispute within the ranks of the JD(U), to the extent that it soured the relationship between Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and RCP Singh, an important party leader.

“Today, the balance in the partnership is more in JD(U)’s favor, particularly as it is needed more by a BJP weakened by its lower number of Lok Sabha wins; the JD(U) now has 12 MPs. In the last Cabinet itself, Nitish Kumar was not happy with the number of berths given to his party. The BJP will now have to adjust more JD(U) MPs in the Cabinet,” said Santosh Singh, a senior Patna journalist. 

According to party officials it is possible that Rajiv Ranjan Singh, a JDU MP from Munger and Sanjay Jha JDU MP Rajya Sabha, may find berths in the new cabinet to be sworn in on Sunday.

TDP: Always A Tough Negotiator

Even in the past, the TDP has worked as an alliance partner of the BJP, having been a partner in the Modi 1.0 Government till it walked out in early 2018 after ‘Special Status’ was not accorded to Andhra Pradesh. The TDP had then accused the BJP of breaking promises and exited the Narendra Modi Cabinet. Incidentally, the TDP has also worked with the BJP during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s time. 

“The TDP has a comfort level with the BJP, but it is in a better position to negotiate this time, particularly as its support is far more critical at this juncture,” said Kumar of Shyam Lal College. “The alliance partners know their worth and, hence, the negotiations are tougher,” he added. 

According to sources K R Mohan Naidu, MP from Srikakulam and Pemmasani, who represents Guntur in the Lok Sabha are among those who are being considered for berths in the new cabinet.

From providing ‘Special Status’ to Andhra Pradesh, to giving fiscal assistance to the state, and on to offering cream ministries in the Cabinet, a lot is on the table as menu options for Chandrababu Naidu. The chips are down, and a healthy, creamy dip is there for the taking.

More Election Related Stories:

The Influence Of Influencers: Examining Their Impact On Lok Sabha Elections 2024

Polls Over, Business Keeps Its War Plans And Policy Wishlist Close To The Chest

The Six States Which Changed The Course Of 2024 Elections

2024 Lok Sabha Elections: How Did Bureaucrat-Turned Politicians Perform In The Polls?

Lok Sabha Election 2024: The Big Winners And The Bigger Losers Of The Game Of Politics

Priorities For New Govt: Climate Change, Jobs Crisis, Food Inflation & Reviving Small Businesses

How Deeply Entrenched Will Deep Fakes Continue To Be In Indian Elections?

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: How India Voted Seat By Seat In A Blockbuster Election