The Six States Which Changed The Course Of 2024 Elections

The Secretariat analysed the results of half a dozen states which helped make a major difference in the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections

Jayanta Roy Chowdhury & Prakriti Bakshi

Jun, 05, 2024  ·  4 min read

For the first time in more than a decade, there was no common thread to the Lok Sabha elections. However, our analysis found that three large states which had 170 seats between them went in a particular direction which can be called a game changer. While three other contiguous states in the centre of India which have 61 seats between them pulled in favour of the ruling alliance to help give it a clear majority in Parliament.

Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and West Bengal bucked the exit pollsters’ forecasts to give opposition parties an edge and reduce the huge majority that the NDA government has enjoyed since 2014. Uttar Pradesh did the most damage, followed by Maharashtra and Bengal. The pollsters had forecast of a sweep by the NDA. However, the Congress and regional parties rose to the occasion and wrested far more seats than they had managed to win in 2019.

While the other three—Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, and Chattisgarh—ensured that the BJP could get the numbers to retain its edge over all-comers. Odisha by switching from an extremely strong regional party to a national party and M.P and Chattisgarh by pushing back influences from neighbouring states and remaining steadfast with the saffron camp. 

Hindi Heartland

The Bharatiya Janata Party which had banked on the Hindi heartland for its winning card in most elections, lost out the plot in the north. Its biggest losses were in Uttar Pradesh. BJP which had won 62 seats in 2019, managed to get just 32 this time around. Its vote share also slipped by over 8 per cent to 41.37 per cent.

The two main I.N.D.I.A bloc parties, Samajwadi party and Congress, both gained. The Samajwadi party raised its tally to 37 seats from 5 by ratcheting up its vote share from 18.11 per cent to 33.59 per cent. While, Congress increased its vote share by over 3 per cent to 9.46 per cent with six seats against one earlier.

Rock Solid M.P & Chattisgarh

BJP also lost out in Rajasthan and Bihar in the Hindi heartland. The only two states which remained firmly in its grip despite the contrarian wind in all neighbouring states was Madhya Pradesh where it won all 29 seats  and Chattisgarh where it was one short of a complete victory in the 11 seats in the state.  (vote shares)

To the south-west of the Hindi heartland, in the politically significant state of Maharashtra, which has 48 parliamentary constituencies, the second highest number from any state in the lower house, the BJP’s seat share plummeted from 23 to 9 seats. The vote percentage did not go down much – from 27.84 per cent to 26.18 per cent, but in India’s first past the post, it was enough to damage the party’s prospects.

Congress raised its tally to 13 seats from just one in 2019. While its allies Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction and Uddhav Thakrey’s Shiv Sena faction won 8 and 9 seats respectively, taking the total I.N.D.I.A bloc’s tally to a winning 30. 

Trinamool Bastion

To the east of the Hindi-speaking swathe of north India, in West Bengal, the lotus wilted. BJP which had won 18 seats last time round and was forecast by most pollsters to win between 26-31 seats, lost a third of its seats and ended up with just 12 seats.

The Trinamool Congress improved its strength from 22 in 2019 to 29 seats in 2024, by increasing its vote share from 40.25 per cent  by 5.51 per cent 45.76 per cent, almost entirely at the expense of the BJP whose vote share shrunk from 43,27 per cent to 38.73 per cent.

Jai Jagannath

Odisha on the eastern coastline was, however, a remarkable victory against a former ally and of late a ‘frenemy’, Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal. BJP won 19 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in the state against just 8 in 2019. The BJP also ended the nearly 78-year-old Patnaik’s 24 year long reign in the state by winning 78 seats in the 147-member Odisha assembly.

The worth of the state’s contribution was such that Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his victory speech chanted “Jai Jagannath” even as the crowd listening to him chanted the traditional slogan “Jai Shri Ram”.

TAGS:
Lok Sabha Elections 2024
Election Watch
BJP
TMC
Congress
Uttar Pradesh
Election Results
BJD

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