With Ball In Washington's Court, Will India-US Ties Stand The Test Of Shifting Geopolitics?

Not just that. Many thought that Trump was the best bet and the only US President capable of ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Images of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump from the latter’s first term remained crisp in the memories of millions of Indians.

Only a few would have then imagined that India would become Trump’s target over the ties with Russia, which is critical for maintaining the balance in Eurasia. Fewer still would have ever imagined that Trump would lay the red carpet for Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir – not just once, but twice. For that matter, neither India nor China would have anticipated that Trump and his coterie would fall for Pakistan’s false promises. 

Ten months into Trump 2.0, India-US ties are being tested like never before – not at least in the last two and a half decades.

US's Ties With Pakistan

What has made things worse is that the US is particularly trying to strengthen its ties with Pakistan, despite the Jammu and Kashmir terror attack leading to Operation Sindoor. 

Pakistan appears critical to the US's strategy in South-Central Asia, reminiscent of the Cold War era. This strategy, however, is outdated as India of today is what it was in the pre-1991 period. Besides, China is currently a strategic competitor to the US.

Neither the encirclement of India nor China would yield the desired results. The phone call between Modi and Trump on the occasion of Diwali was also seemingly unproductive – the Prime Minister’s measured comments on X and his decision to skip the India-ASEAN Summit and the East Asia Summit are proof of it.  

Friction In Ties?

An in-person meeting of the leaders of India and the US at this juncture could have been a disaster, considering that the trade deal is still being negotiated with no firm commitments by Washington on reducing tariffs and the US President’s continued claims that he stopped the India-Pakistan conflict post Operation Sindoor. 

The Trump administration, frustrated over India’s defiance of its caveat over Russian oil imports, imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, with the hope that this would force Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. 

The US leader may have miscalculated his steps, once again.

The Russian resilience is legendary, and Moscow has an upper hand on the battlefield in Ukraine. Deal-making in the real estate sector and a war zone are two different ball games. The root cause of the conflict needs to be settled for a lasting peace, instead of merely grabbing headlines. 

Ceasefire followed by a lasting peace is also in India’s interest, even as New Delhi has maintained that its foreign policy is etched in the principle of strategic autonomy. 

New Delhi-Washington Partnership

The New Delhi-Washington partnership is undoubtedly imperative for India’s growth and for an inclusive Asia (and to balance China). 

However, policymakers in Washington must realise that the India of the 1970s and the India of 2025 have only one thing in common – the refusal to allow any third party in chalking out its foreign policy. New Delhi views itself as a pole in global affairs, without being a member of one camp or another. 

It is multi-aligned from being a member of Quad and simultaneously a member of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). 

It launched the Global South and will strengthen the South-South Cooperation. Besides, the bond and strategic partnership with Russia will remain an important pillar of India’s foreign policy.     

Taking A Stand

India has made one thing clear – that being a member of the Quad and having a close defence partnership with the US does not mean that New Delhi will become a treaty ally of Washington, much like Japan or Australia. This is despite the fact that millions of Indians live on American soil and contribute to the growth of its economy. 

Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has stated that India will not sign any trade deal with a gun pointed towards it. Notwithstanding the size of the Indian economy and average per capita income, India is a civilisational state willing to play a long game, unlike an American Presidency. 

The ball is now in the US's court – it is up to Washington to work out a fair trade deal by comprehensively addressing the tariff issue and acknowledging India’s growing role in geopolitics, besides respecting India’s foreign policy choices. A trade deal or any strategic partnership must be on an equal footing.    

(The writer is a commentator on geo-politics and geo-economics. Views are personal.)