Will Trump Manage To Tame Afghanistan?

Taking a tough line that it will not part with the equipment, Kabul has said it is willing to “bargain, but on our terms”.

Analysts say the Trump administration, in office for barely two weeks, has yet to focus on Afghanistan. At his February 5 joint media interaction with Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, Trump side-stepped a pointed question on Afghanistan by telling a lady journalist that hers was “a beautiful voice and a beautiful accent. The only problem is I can’t understand a word you’re saying. But I just say this: Good luck. Live in peace. Go ahead, please.” 

The loss may seem negligible to the US in terms of its dollar value, but Trump has made the equipment’s return a precondition during and after the presidential elections, which he won last November.

He has to settle a political score with the Biden administration that executed the withdrawal — which he says was 'humiliating'. On his part, Biden had frozen US$ 9 billion of funds belonging to Afghanistan lying in American banks.

According to a report from the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), the American military equipment left behind is worth US$ 7.12 billion. A recent CBS newsreport, citing the US Department of Defense, stated that approximately 78 aircraft, 40,000 military vehicles and hundreds of thousands of weapons are now in the possession of the Taliban.

The problem is Afghanistan has rarely been tamed — Alexander the Great (for a short while), the Mauryas and the Mughals — were among the few powers who managed to do the job. The British, Russians, Pakistanis and even the Americans, all failed.

Negotiation is one way out, and the US's allies in the Gulf — and to a lesser extent India — have had some diplomatic leverage in the difficult terrain dominated by the Hindu Kush range. 

Arms Free For All

Besides money — and America’s domestic politics of honouring those who died during the evacuation — Trump can't ignore the Afghan conundrum on two counts. According to former Afghan military officials who are now in exile, 30 per cent of the military equipment has fallen in the hands of Al Qaida, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), and other Islamist militant groups.

Taliban have also allowed Pakistan-based Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) access to the arms. Afghan sources say some of it has found its way into the hands of the militants in India-controlled Jammu and Kashmir.

Other than American arms falling to hostile hands, Trump has to contend with China's significant forays into Afghanistan’s economy, with Russia in tow. While the Taliban regime has no diplomatic recognition, Kabul and Beijing have exchanged ambassador-level diplomats, and Chinese firms are poised to explore copper mining in Afghanistan.

After weeks of silence regarding Trump’s election-time comments, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid, in a social media post, asserted that the weapons and equipment left behind were “now firmly under Taliban control”.

“These weapons will be used to defend our freedom, independence and Islamic system. No one can take them from us,” Mujahid wrote. “If someone wants them back, we will negotiate — but on our terms.”

Such terms may be part of the likely future talks. But as of now, Afghan media and analysts say it would not be practicable for the weaponry and equipment to be returned to the US. It is “not achievable”, since the equipment is in the hands of groups that are inimical to both Kabul's rulers and the US. The value of the equipment is also disputed.

“Neither Trump nor official US government sources have provided a specific list or data of these weapons. What has been emphasised in Trump’s remarks where he has claimed these weapons,  to be worth US$ 80 billion. Some media outlets, while fact-checking Trump’s claimed figures, argue that this amount is exaggerated,” said Bemillah Taban, an Afghan scholar who earlier served as the head of Afghanistan's Crime Investigation Department (CID).  

Afghanistan Needs Money

However, a diplomatically-isolated Afghanistan, more impoverished under the Taliban than it was before badly needs funds. A Kabul-datelined report said the Taliban-run central bank has announced it will auction US$ 25 million in an effort to stabilise the declining value of the afghani.

The move came as Afghanistan’s currency depreciated sharply in recent weeks, reaching an unprecedented low of 80 afghanis per US dollar at one point in January. As of mid-February 4, the exchange rate stood at between 73 and 75 afghanis per dollar, according to market reports.

In end-January 2025, Taliban auctioned US$ 62 million in a similar attempt to manage exchange rates. In a statement, the central bank said that banks, currency exchange firms and money service providers who meet the eligibility criteria, could participate in the auction.

The depreciation of the Afghani is partly attributed to reduced financial assistance from the US, following an executive order by Trump that cut a portion of the US aid to Afghanistan. Kabul, like much of the world, is already feeling the “Trump effect”, and whether it admits it or not, it would need to open negotiations, it if has not already done so behind the scenes.

Diplomatic observers have linked the visits of senior leaders from Afghanistan, debarred from travelling under UN sanctions, to key Gulf nations, even as Trump took office. The visits were linked to their performing the Haj. To facilitate this, the UN Security Council Sanctions Committee issued travel exemptions under Resolution 1988.

They include Sirajuddin Haqqani, Afghanistan’s acting Minister of Interior who also heads the Haqqani Network sanctioned by the UN. The other two are Amir Khan Muttaqi, the acting Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Noor Mohammad Saqib, the acting Minister of Hajj and Religious Affairs.

According to Zabihullah Mujahid, the spokesperson for the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, when Haqqani travelled to Saudi Arabia to perform Umrah, he and the Afghan Director of Intelligence Abdul Haq Wasiq, “discussed regional stability and Afghanistan’s economic capabilities with the President of UAE, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.”

It is well known that the Taliban have maintained diplomatic presence in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to interact with governments. One such meeting was held with Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri last month.

India is the other country in the neighbourhod with whom the Afghans have a traditional relationship which after being torn asunder by the rise of the Taliban is again on the path the repair. Indian diplomatic teams have held talks with the Taliban leadership.

The latest high level meeting was India's foreign secretary holding talks with Kabul's acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi last month. There are indications that India may allow Taliban to take control of the Afghan embassy in New Delhi with a moderate face as the new ambassador. 

With a "common enemy" in Islamabad, it is likely that Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and India will try and come nearer. The Taliban also need a port to sell whatever Afghanistan produces and to import much needed goods. India controlled Chabahar in Iran gives it an alternative to Karachi. And indications are that Iran will facilitate that.

Whenever a deal is brokered which will allow the Taliban to repair the broken Afghan economy, the US and other nations who take part in it should bring in the question of treatment of women, human right of ordinary citizens and access to education for all citizens.

To repair Afghanistan and create another medieval nation which looks backwards and pulls others in the region towards a rigid, backward society may not be what either the US or India is looking out for. 

The big question is of course will the two protagonists — the Trump administration and Kabul — use New Delhi or for that matter Bahrain or Dubai to broker a deal? Or will Trump again strike out against Afghanistan and try and extract a costly revenge?

(The writer is a senior journalist and columnist. Views are personal)