Will Trump 2.0 Usher In Hyper-Protectionism?

A world that is already witnessing a rise in political populism, nationalism and protectionism, may see the situation worsen as the incoming US President  appears unwilling to counteract these movements. In fact, his decisions may exacerbate the situation. 

In recent months, Trump’s social media posts and speeches have sparked intense debate, with many analysts exploring the potential political roadmap for his second term. 

Known for stirring controversy, this time around Trump addresses issues concerning several countries. The international community is already struggling  to comprehend his comments which at one level seems to reflect expansionist tendencies.

Will Canada Become A State Of The US?

In the last week of November, following his election, Trump reportedly suggested that Canada could join the USA as its 51st state over dinner with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Trump, known for his blunt trade policies, is hesitant to offer any concessions to countries he believes are benefiting unfairly from America. He has threatened neighbouring countries, proposing massive tariffs, including a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian imports.

If implemented, this would make Canadian goods more expensive in the US market, potentially reducing their appeal to consumers and negatively impacting the Canadian economy. 

Trump has indicated that if Canada cannot handle the economic pressure and wishes to maintain continued access to US markets, the simplest solution would be to become part of the US. However, this idea is far more complicated than it sounds; Canada's accession to the US is, by any measure, a daunting task. Nevertheless, Trump appears to be quite serious about his proposal.

Tariffs are seen as a mercantilist strategy and contradict the principles of a liberal trade regime. Notably, the US has advocated for and pressured other nations to adopt a free market economy since the end of the Cold War (also known as the Washington Consensus). Today, Trump has emerged as the biggest critic of the liberal economic system.

Trade War Or Expansionist Ambitions?

Many may have initially dismissed Trump's comments about Canada as part of a trade war, but his reference to Greenland caught them by surprise. 

During his first presidency, Trump attempted to acquire Greenland and now he has taken a more assertive stance on the issue. 

The Republican Party is also becoming increasingly vocal on the matter. Representative Andy Ogles has proposed a bill titled the "Make Greenland Great Again Act." If this Bill is approved by Congress, Trump would gain the authority to negotiate with Denmark the acquisition of Greenland, immediately after his inauguration. The Bill emphasises that "securing Greenland is critical to advancing America's national security and economic interests".

Denmark, a NATO member, had sovereign rights over Greenland. However, since 1979, Greenland has operated as an autonomous region. In 2009, it gained the right to declare independence, provided that it is approved by its inhabitants. 

The population of Greenland is just over 55,000. The territory is rich in mineral resources, including significant deposits of rare earth elements. Besides, Greenland possesses considerable untapped oil and gas reserves, which enhance its economic significance. With Arctic ice melting due to climate change, new shipping routes may also open up around Greenland.

Greenland is geographically close to the United States, with its capital, Nuuk, located closer to New York than to Copenhagen. Due to its strategic location, President Truman had once offered Denmark US$ 100 million to buy the island shortly after the end of World War II. In 1867, President Andrew Johnson too had attempted to purchase Greenland. 

However, US security concerns were addressed by the 1951 defence treaty, which allowed the US to establish an air base now known as Pituffik Space Base in northwest Greenland. 

Recent reports indicate that both Denmark and Greenland are willing to collaborate more with the US on security issues. Mute Egede, the Prime Minister of Greenland, recently expressed his government's desire to find ways to work with Trump. Though Egede emphasised the importance of local decision-making by the people of Greenland, he rejected any proposals for the sale of the island.

Despite this, Trump's offers regarding Greenland have been surrounded by controversy, and he has not dismissed the possibility of using force to acquire it.

Trump is quite straightforward and firm in his stance regarding Canada, Greenland, and the issue of control over the Panama Canal. He believes that the United States is paying a "ridiculous fee" to use the Panama Canal and claims that "the Chinese are controlling" it.

Trump has remained consistent in his position and concern regarding Canada, Greenland and Panama. Canada may, therefore, face an increase in tariffs, while Greenland and Panama will likely experience significant pressure from the US to reach a deal.

Europe’s Dilemma 

Trump's ideas and statements seem to violate prevailing international norms and practices. His political positions also seemingly demonstrate a disregard for the widely accepted concept of sovereignty in international relations. 

Historically, powerful nations have long justified colonialism and territorial domination for economic and security reasons throughout the 19th and 20th century. Trump seems to be making a similar argument, with the difference that he is making in the post-colonial world. 

The critical question is whether the international community will remain a passive observer. The European Union and NATO after all are directly involved in the the issue of  Denmark's sovereignty over Greenland. Several European leaders have voiced their concerns, but many prefer to remain cautious.

There is a strong possibility that Trump, similar to his first term, may also direct his focus on trade issues with European countries. 

Additionally, Trump is seen as a ‘NATO skeptic’ and will ask European nations to increase their contribution to the transatlantic defence organisation. In sum, US-Europe relations are likely to face a phase of turbulence.

It seems that the transition toward a new, more chaotic world order is already well underway under Trump 2.0. 

(Tripathi is Senior Associate Professor at Department of International Relations, South Asian University, New Delhi. Views are personal)

Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™