Will The Traditional IC Engine Survive The Onslaught Of Electric Vehicles?

More than 162 years ago, Belgian inventor Etienne Lenoir created the first commercially successful internal combustion engine. It was only in 1862 that he was able to create the first automobile to run on this IC engine. 

Since then, the IC engines have become remarkably more powerful, more eco friendly and more fuel efficient. Now their future hinges on the sustainability factor that aims to drastically reduce their carbon footprint.

Suddenly, names like the Thwaites Glacier (also known as the Doomsday glacier) sends a chill down the spine of the automobile industry. It’s time for the industry to come clean, aka Green, or get ready to perish. Global warming is a phenomenon than cannot be taken lightly now. 

In the midst of alarming climate changes and increasing global warming, people wonder whether the traditional IC engine powered vehicles will survive the onslaught of eco friendly electric vehicles. There is enough proof to prove that pollution generated by IC engines have directly impacted climate changes and rise in global temperatures.

The good part is that every auto company across the globe has announced ambitious plans to be fully or partially committed to EVs in the coming years. But does that mean the days of IC engines are numbered?  Perhaps, yes. But it will take several decades, at least. 

Is it easy to put a halt to production of IC engines and transmissions?

An Uphill Task

While it is easy for vehicle manufacturers to move from IC engine vehicles to electric vehicles with a one-time investment in the assembly line, the real brunt of doing away with IC engines and transmission will need to be borne by manufacturers of auto components, especially those who make critical engine parts and transmissions. 

A typical internal combustion engine has around 200 parts. Many of these parts are also replaced when they wear out during the life of a vehicle. In contrast, an electric vehicle has no engine, except lithium ion batteries and electric motors. From 200 parts that go into an IC engine, barely 20 different parts go into an electric vehicle.

An internal combustion engine consists of parts like engine block, pistons, cylinder heads, crankshafts, camshafts, timing belt, engine valves, oil pan, etc. The transmission system, on the other hand, consists of components like clutch, gearbox, propeller shaft, differential, live axle, etc.

In its Industry Performance Review for the fiscal year 2022-23, the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA), the apex body representing India’s Auto Component manufacturing industry, noted that turnover of the automotive component industry stood at Rs 5.60 lakh crore (US$ 69.7 billion) for the period of April 2022 to March 2023, registering a growth of 32.8 per cent over the previous year.

It was its best ever performance in FY23, outpacing its highest ever turnover of Rs 4.20 lakh crore in FY21-22. Exports grew by 5.2 per cent to Rs 1.61 lakh crore (US$ 20.1 billion) while imports grew by 10.9 per cent to Rs 1.63 lakh crore (US$ 20.3 billion). The Aftermarket, estimated at Rs 85,333 crore, also witnessed a steady growth of 15 per cent. Component sales to OEMs in the domestic market grew by 39.5 per cent to Rs 4.76 lakh crore.

Engine components constituted as much as  25 per cent of this overall component sales. The rest of the sales comprised body chassis (12 per cent), suspension and breaking (16 per cent), drive transmission and steering (16 per cent), Cooling system (1 per cent), electricals and electronics (12 per cent), non-electronic interiors (9 per cent) and cononsumables and misc items, including rubber (9 per cent), according to data available with ACMA.

When it comes to import of auto components, engine components constitute 31 per cent of the total. The rest involves body chassis (18 per cent), suspension and breaking (15 per cent), drive transmission and steering (9 per cent), Cooling system (7 per cent), electricals and electronics (7 per cent), non-electronic interiors (6 per cent), consumables and misc items (2 per cent) and rubber components (5 per cent)

Thus, doing away with such a large portion of business (engine components) that may have involved billions of US dollars worth of investments and one that employs thousands of people and many more through indirect employment, is virtually wishful thinking.

Obviously this cannot be done overnight. But it has to be done.  With the growing popularity of electric vehicles, one can assume that the days of IC engines are numbered. But when you think of newer and more sophisticated technologies involving hydrogen as a fuel, then a new avatar of an IC engine may emerge. 

According to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA), in the financial year 2023-24, around 24.53 million vehicles were sold in the country, as compared to 22.24 million vehicles sold the previous year.  

A Long Way To Go

FADA further informed that electric vehicles sales constituted a miniscule share in the total sales of vehicles in the country. Electric passenger vehicles sales stood at 90,996 units in 2023-24, compared to 47,551 units in 2022-23. Electric commercial vehicles sales stood at 8,571, electric two-wheelers at 9,47,087 and electric three-wheelers at 6,32,636. Total electric vehicle sales stood at 1,679,290 units in fiscal 2023-24.  

The transition from IC engine vehicles to electric vehicles may at best take several decades, keeping in mind the slow, yet growing, demand and the increasing pressure from governments all over the world on vehicle manufacturers to shift away from IC engine vehicles.

Fiscal incentives for EVs, coupled with stricter emission norms for IC engine vehicles as well as regulatory disadvantages etc. can finally force people to buy only EVs in the future. 

Almost all vehicles manufacturers, especially those making cars, have announced broad plans to shift their technology 100 per cent away from IC engine vehicles.

Some have a deadline of 2030, some have the year 2040 for completely going electric. The question today is not really about IC engine or EVs, it’s about saving the planet. Can we really save the planet, or is it too late? 

(P Tharyan is Editor, Motown India -- www.motownindia.com. Views expressed are personal)