After months of an intense election cycle, Donald Trump has emerged victorious by defeating Democratic Presidential nominee and US Vice-President Kamala Harris.

We've already had a taste of a Trumpian presidency once before. He reshaped how the US approaches everything, from climate change to international trade, shaking up policies and priorities across the board. Now, with AI regulation in the spotlight, many are asking — what's he going to do?

This is important especially because the impact of how the US regulates AI won’t just reverberate across Silicon Valley — the hub of world’s biggest tech companies — but across the globe.

As a key player in AI development, US Big Tech companies like Google, OpenAI, Microsoft, Apple and Meta influence everything, from data privacy norms to ethical AI usage, worldwide. Not long ago, they were all lobbying to get SB 1047 — a Bill to regulate AI in the state of California — vetoed, and got it done.

But things have changed a lot on the tech front since Trump’s last Presidency. For example, we now have ChatGPT — after the AI boom of 2022 — and most of the companies mentioned above are developing artificial general intelligence (AGI) — an AI with human-like cognitive abilities that can understand, learn and perform any intellectual task that a human can.

With that, and other worries like privacy, job security, misuse in areas like surveillance or warfare glaring, at us all in the face, Trump’s decision will be of importance. And the world is watching with keen interest.

Deregulation: A Repeat Of Last Term’s Approach?

In his last tenure, the Trump administration’s policy, especially when it came to technology and environment, was largely characterised by deregulation and a preference for private sector-led innovation.

An example of that was the AI executive order he signed in 2019. The order focused on ensuring that the US remains a global leader in AI by promoting research, workforce development and removing barriers to innovation. It also directed federal agencies to prioritise AI in their operations and regulations.

Then came the generative AI surge in 2022, which marked a shift in the AI ecosystem. A year later, in 2023, came Biden’s executive order on AI, which attempted to strike a balance between fostering innovation and ensuring that citizens are protected from risks and harms associated with the new technology.

While Trump hasn’t said much about what he plans to do in the AI regulation space, there is one thing that he will do for certain. Which is, to repeal Biden’s AI executive order, on the day he assumes office.

“When I am reelected, I will cancel Biden’s artificial intelligence executive order and ban the use of AI to censor the speech of American citizens on Day One,” said Trump at a rally in Iowa.

The great debate over how to govern AI has also sparked a rift within Trump’s coalition. Trump’s supporters include a mixed bag of tech accelerationists and pragmatists. 

Vice-President-elect JD Vance has pushed for a more relaxed approach to regulation, brushing aside the notion of AI risks.

Adding to this list of accelerationists are Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel, and Ben Horowitz and Marc Andreessen of the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, who have time and again asked the government to back-off from regulating AI. Both Thiel and Andreessen Horowitz funded the Trump re-election campaign.

On the other side of the fence, we have Elon Musk, who also endorsed Trump, donated to his campaign and appeared in multiple rallies with him. Musk's stance, however, is different, as he has called for stringent AI regulation multiple times in the past. He has described AI as "the biggest risk we face as a civilisation" and has even called for proactive government oversight to ensure that AI remains safe and beneficial for humanity.

Which side will Trump ultimately lean toward — looser regulations to spur innovation, or a more cautious, controlled approach to safeguard humanity? Historically speaking, Trump would tilt to the former side. But with Musk whispering in his ears, the new POTUS might be persuaded to take a centrist approach.

How Will The US' AI Regulation Impact India?

The experts that The Secretariat spoke to, say Trump's approach to AI is likely to diverge sharply from Biden's. They believe there will likely be a shift towards a deregulatory, innovation-driven approach.

“This transition could possibly result in increased competition, less privacy and curtailed freedom of speech, even far beyond the US to countries like India, China, etc,” said Sagar Vishnoi, co-founder of Future Shift Labs and an expert on AI policy.

This could unlock new doors for startups in India, channelling more investment into the system and fueling a wave of technological advancement. But it may compromise the ethical and responsible use of AI, they say.

Vishnoi, though, has a different concern: Trump’s unpredictable temperament.

“Although it is possible that India would attract more investments, especially in AI startups… but with the example of companies like Harley-Davidson and Infosys, it seems stricter restrictions like increased taxes could also be imposed, posing challenges to the Indian tech industry,” said Vishnoi.

He was referring to the diplomatic and business tensions between the US and India between 2017 and 2018, where US steel tariffs led India to raise duties on US products, including Harley-Davidson motorcycles. In response, Harley-Davidson had shifted production overseas to mitigate costs, triggering a backlash from Trump, who saw it as a betrayal of his ‘America First’ trade policy. In case of Infosys, Trump singled out the Indian IT major in 2017, criticising the company for using H-1B visas to bring foreign workers to the US. The then President claimed this policy contributed to job losses among American workers.

The US and India have collaborated a lot in the past, especially in technology sharing, and they share a common ground in their rivalry with China.

The last Trump administration strongly opposed China’s Huawei, urging countries like India to exclude the tech firm from their 5G networks on grounds of national security. 

Will Trump’s opposition to Huawei’s 5G technology in 2018 mirror his stance against AI in 2025? For Trump, AI would be a battlefield, and China an adversary, in the race to craft the next-generation of advanced AI. 

While Trump’s previous policies were controversial, their ripple effects have created a lasting framework that continues to shape the direction of US tech policy. 

Not only did the Biden administration inherit this framework, but in many ways, it has also taken it further, ensuring that the regulatory landscape remains steeped in competition — and at times, sanctions — with a particular focus on securing US dominance in the global technological race.

However, it should be noted that a nation's tech policy isn’t just shaped by election results or who sits at the Oval office, but by broader forces like geopolitical trends, the Silicon Valley lords and how the American polity sees the role of tech in their day-to-day life.

But yes, with the new administration, a select few stand to benefit from their policies, while Trump’s personal instincts are likely to influence other parts of the policy agenda.