West Asia On Fire: What's In Store As World Watches  

Yet, the threats and statements from both Tel Aviv and Tehran were considered by and large political, meant for their respective domestic audiences, and for creating deterrence. But what was thought to be largely shadow-boxing has now become a nightmare, with missiles raining on both countries, causing damage beyond imagination.

The damage caused by both Israeli and Iranian missiles has proved that air defence systems deployed by both are not foolproof, despite tall claims. On our phone screens, the use of Iraqi and Syrian airspace by Israel for launching missiles towards Iran looks like a video game.

Israel’s military prowess is globally acknowledged. In the ongoing war, Iranian facilities have been severely damaged, including certain nuclear-related assets. But the situation in Tel Aviv is not rosy either, as disturbing images emerge from across Israel, with Iran hitting both military and civilian targets.

The US-Israel Relationship

This is when the Israeli government decided to pitch for US military support. However, US President Donald Trump, despite the rhetoric and his decades-old commitment to Tel Aviv, stepped back initially, appearing to prefer dialogue over war.

His own Make America Great Again (MAGA) constituency, the all-important oil lobby, and Gulf partners, remain on edge over the implications of a possible US-Iran war. Because today, each war is globalised, and the Israel-Iran conflict is no exception.

The implications for India are concerning, too. Needless to say that Indian students and nationals in Iran have been directly hit. New Delhi is now aggressively evacuating the Indian nationals. And not just from Iran. The counterattacks on Israel have also forced the Indian government to launch an evacuation from the country.

The oil-rich Gulf states are also worried. For them, oil revenues are critical. The welfare of the sizeable number of foreign workers is also key to the economic growth of the Gulf states. And any direct US-Iran war-like situation may trigger Tehran to target American assets across the Gulf region, resulting in a major catastrophe.

Yet, Israel will try its best to get the US involved in its war to tilt the scales in its favour.

Worries For China Too

Besides India, China will also be closely monitoring developments in the Strait of Hormuz. A closure of the Strait will choke oil supplies to China, India, Japan and South Korea, apart from other growing economies in the Indo-Pacific region.

No wonder, then, that China has been more vocal in its support for Iran than even Tehran’s old ally, Russia. Any setback for the US would mean wider access for China into the Islamic world.

While on the face of it, Moscow may not openly back Tehran and try to balance its approach, given the bonhomie that President Vladimir Putin and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu share, Russia may not have opened all its cards in this conflict.

For Moscow, the priority is to safeguard some of its nuclear facilities in Iran. It is also in touch with the US to defuse tensions and de-escalate the situation. Iran is part of the broader picture of collaboration between Trump and Putin. Diplomacy is often more nuanced than what appears in social media.

The bottomline — the outcome of the war and the role of the US will have far-reaching implications.