Water Table Is Plunging, India Needs To Plan For The Dry Years Ahead

The water table is plummeting at an alarming rate in states like Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka, posing a threat to the very lifeblood of the nation's food security.

Falling Tables, Rising Concerns

More than 60 per cent of India's districts have witnessed a decrease in groundwater levels in the last decade, as per the Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) report published in 2024.

In Punjab, which was the poster child of India's Green Revolution, more than 80 per cent of blocks are now in the "over-exploited" zone, indicating that groundwater is being extracted at a rate higher than it can be replenished.

Things aren't dramatically different in Haryana either, where tubewells turn dry in months of high irrigation usage, leaving farmers with no option but to access deeper aquifers or switch on expensive diesel-based pumps.

In areas of Bundelkhand and Marathwada, the water situation has set off distress migration, as agriculture grows less sustainable.

The Illusion Of A Bumper Crop

This year, India is expected to see a good farm production owing to a positive monsoon forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department. But experts caution that if the groundwater and soil moisture levels are not sufficient, the yield may not match expectations.

Soil moisture and groundwater levels remain critically low in several key growing regions, reducing the land’s capacity to absorb and retain rainwater effectively. Without adequate sub-surface reserves to support crops during dry spells, the actual harvest may fall significantly short of projections.

Sustainable Agriculture: A Necessity, Not A Choice

Experts now suggest that the way ahead is to transform India's agricultural pattern dramatically towards sustainability. That would involve minimising water-consuming crops in dry areas, adopting micro-irrigation techniques like drip and sprinkler systems. Besides, re-establishing traditional methods of water recharging such as aquifers, step wells, earthen check dams, etc.

India’s farming system heavily favours high-yield crops like paddy and sugarcane, which consume large amounts of water and contribute significantly to groundwater over-extraction. Such a disconnect between crop selection and ecological reality is no longer tenable.

New cropping patterns and choices of crops must be brought about to reduce water usage by agriculture. For instance, millets (bajra, jowar, ragi), pigeon pea, chickpea, cotton, and groundnut are known for their drought resistance and require less water compared to crops like rice or sugarcane.

Urban Sprawl And Pressure On Water Tables

Groundwater depletion is not a farming problem in isolation. Peri-urban sprawl at breakneck pace — particularly around Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities — is contributing to the crisis. Building binges, expanding paved areas, and borewell expansion are stifling groundwater recharge and boosting demand. Cities like Delhi, Bengaluru, and Hyderabad are withdrawing groundwater at unsustainable levels. 

Rainwater harvesting continues to be poorly implemented in most Indian cities, despite being made compulsory in many building regulations. Excessive construction on wetlands and floodplains has further undermined aquifer recharge.

Plausible Way Out

Policy experts are calling for a shift in the government’s Minimum Support Price (MSP) system, which currently incentivises water-intensive crops like paddy and wheat. MSP should focus on supporting millets, pulses, and oilseeds — crops that are not only climate-resilient but also water-efficient.

Additionally, government schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY 2015) must focus on localised irrigation infrastructure, groundwater recharge projects, and solar-powered pump subsidies to reduce the carbon footprint of agriculture.

Equally important is decentralising water governance. Local panchayats and farmer producer organisations must play a role in managing aquifer use, rationing irrigation cycles, and ensuring community ownership of water bodies.

Leveraging Technology 

A few states have experimented with AI and satellite-based water monitoring systems to give real-time advisories to farmers. Tamil Nadu's Water Stewardship (2015) initiative, with the support of ITC Ltd., and Andhra Pradesh's Zero Budget Natural Farming (2016) model, are being monitored closely for scalable lessons.

The startup ecosystem is also emerging to be a pivotal step toward attaining a sustainable agriculture. Agritech platforms and start-ups, like Kheyti (2015), Fasal (2018), and DeHaat (2012), are providing micro-climate advisories and precision farming methods that cut water usage significantly.

No Time Left To Wait

With almost 60 per cent of India's net sown area relying on groundwater, the current path is unsustainable. The hope of a bumper crop may provide a temporary sigh of relief, but without structural changes and immediate action, that sigh may become a gasp.

India’s groundwater crisis demands more than just efficient irrigation or better monsoons. It calls for a transformation of agricultural incentives, urban governance, and public awareness before the reserves that feed a billion people run dry.

(The writer is an independent researcher, formerly with Ronin Institute, New Jersey, and market research firm IMARC. Views are personal.)