Trump's Stakes In Indo-Pacific Region: China Gains An Edge, Traditional US Allies On Edge

The trade deals that he concluded with some of the Southeast Asian countries are not comprehensive; he had also ceded ground to China. This has left traditional US allies in the region and countries, which had used their partnerships with the US to counter-balance China, with little choice but to enter into tactical adjustments with Beijing. 

Quad’s future looks uncertain and unclear in the short term. Many opine that Quad, since its revival in 2017, has not achieved its desired goal of changing Chinese behaviour despite several summits. The US President does not appear to have any interest in the Quad, until and unless it generates business for him. 

The G2 has made it clear that Washington, under Trump 2.0, is highly transactional, with limited interest in values to provide the cushion to Indo-Pacific states to hedge China’s ambitions. Beijing is making serious inroads into the Pacific region, challenging the US's dominance that lasted for decades. China, too, feels that the Indo-Pacific region is its backyard, as much as it is for the US. 

Critical Mineral Supply

Critical mineral supply chains are currently dominating Trump’s approach to the Indo-Pacific region. While Trump has secured a deal from China on rare earth and permanent magnets, he has also tried to secure critical minerals and rare earth supply chains through Australia, Japan, and South Korea, in a bid to balance the US's dependence on Beijing.

According to a recent report by Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Ahead of APEC, Trump Signs Flurry of Bilateral Minerals Agreements on Asia Tour, “While the MoUs signed with Thailand and Malaysia seek to deepen cooperative ties between the two nations and the US, the critical minerals frameworks signed with Australia and Japan go beyond calls for cooperation to prioritize the deployment of capital to strategic projects. Under the bilateral agreement with Australia signed on October 20, both governments have pledged to deploy $1 billion each within six months to jointly advance projects deemed strategically significant".

Although the framework with Japan does not specify a monetary commitment, it also establishes a six-month timeline to provide financial backing for selected projects. In both cases, the agreements stipulate that the resulting offtake will be directed to buyers in the US and the partner nation — and, where applicable, to allied countries.

The US clearly does not want to lose the edge in the sphere of technology to China.  

US Strategy With China

Yet, Trump simultaneously gave a concession to China, lifting a one-year freeze on a recently introduced rule that expanded the list of Chinese companies restricted from accessing advanced US technologies. This clearly signifies that Trump believes in coexistence with China, which has raced ahead of many developed economies. 

The Trump administration and some of its allies have come to the conclusion that even though they may not publicly admit that China is on a path of ascendancy and will continue to grow, it is an equal stakeholder, in league with the US.

Coexistence, And Yet in Competition

Containment of China, therefore, has been put in cold storage. Co-existence, while in a competition with China, seems to be the mantra for the Trump administration. 

Traditional treaty allies of the US in the Indo-Pacific region have been stunned by the political approach of the Trump administration.

However, they take solace in the fact that at the bureaucratic level, ties continue to be strong and that China is not being given a free run. Apart from the US-Japan-Australia-Philippines Quadrilateral, the US is largely focusing on bilateral arrangements in Southeast Asia or in East Asia to maintain its traditional role in the region, which, unlike West Asia, remains conflict-free despite threats from China and its ambitions. 

India's Strategic Approach

India, in the short to medium term, needs to focus on shoring up its bilateral strategic partnerships with Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, and expand its economic and strategic partnerships in East Asia with Japan and South Korea.

Newer areas of collaboration include ship-building, the semiconductor industry, and high-tech. Simultaneously, India-Australia partnership in the spheres of defence and critical minerals is critical to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

The focus for India in the region should be on bilateral partnerships, instead of building expectations through multilateral arrangements.      

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics. Views are personal.)