Trump’s Gaza Plan Is Ambitious, But Challenges Lie Ahead

While the plan is ambitious, like all other initiatives launched by Trump, such plans are often superficial and lacking details, formulated with the sole intention of a Nobel Peace Prize. 

However, addressing West Asia’s biggest and oldest conflict since World War II is complex. Therefore, neither the US President’s son-in-law with Jewish heritage nor the business deals initiated by Trump's friends can address the root causes of the Israeli-Palestine imbroglio. 

While the Palestinians have deep-rooted grievances, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no incentive to address the crisis. 

Netanyahu has an extraordinary capacity to excel under any adverse circumstances by playing the nationalism card.  A prolonged crisis is the right oxygen to his political career, and an early solution to the Gaza siege is a serious threat to his chair. 

Critics of the Netanyahu school of politics allege that he needs either a crisis with Iran or a Hamas-Palestinian crisis to continue to serve as the Prime Minister. 

Therefore, he would have hoped that Hamas would have rejected Trump's peace plan. Yet, the safe return of the hostages is critical for survival for the Netanyahu government, and the wily leader had little option but to agree to the US President’s plan, at least temporarily.  

Abraham Accords       

The Abraham Accords under Trump 1.0, which gave Israel diplomatic recognition from the UAE, Morocco, Bahrain, and Sudan, were concluded under different circumstances. There was no prevailing conflict or hostage situation, which made it easier for the four OIC states to recognise Israel. 

Since then, Israel-UAE ties have only prospered, raising hopes that Tel Aviv and key players in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) can coexist, and this may even lead to a two-state solution, something that India has supported for decades. Bonhomie in the UAE-Israel ties shaped I2U2 - a strategic partnership between India, Israel, the US, and the UAE, and, eventually, the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). 

However, the prolonged crisis following the October 7 terror attacks has delayed the implementation of IMEC. The attack on Qatar by Israel forced the UAE leadership to rush to Doha to express solidarity. This was unprecedented as the Abu Dhabi royal family and the Qatar ruling family historically shared frosty ties. 

Qatar had tried to compete with other West Asian nations, but with mixed results, as Dubai continues to be the favourite destination of tourists, investors, and traders. 

Reading between the lines of Trump’s 20-point peace plan for ending the Israel-Hamas conflict and the release of hostages and subsequent endorsement by key OIC states, including Pakistan, presents a picture that is not visible in global media reportage. 

A silent recalibration by the Gulf states is unfolding, where the US may one day be replaced with some other power as the chief security provider. 

The US's plan has all possibilities of encountering an accident, and knives may once again be sharpened in West Asia. Iran, currently weakened, may also be planning to play a bigger role in the future.

Two-State Solution

Matured voices in the Trump administration, along with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, therefore, have to ensure that the plan leads to a proper reconstruction of Gaza and, subsequently, results in the two-state solution. 

For India, welcoming Trump’s plan gives the US President a feel-good factor, which may contribute to a balanced trade deal. 

Normalisation of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel may not be hastened as expected and, therefore, Abraham Accords 2.0 may not be an easy target to achieve. Interestingly, Washington managed to get Indonesia and Pakistan to endorse the plan.

That Pakistan has been in touch with Israel is no longer a secret. What came as a surprise was a brief engagement between Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the Head of the American Jewish Congress during the former's visit to the US. The Congress has been a big lobby group for Jews. It is not clear if it is playing a role in normalising the situation.

For the last eight decades, Pakistan’s foreign policy has had a focus on Palestine along with Kashmir. A sudden U-turn, therefore, may not be easy for Pakistani citizens to accept. But in the absence of a tall Opposition leader, the Army-backed government may work out a deal with Israel, leading to the possible establishment of diplomatic ties. 

This may sound unrealistic, but the possibilities cannot be ruled out. 

The development is directly linked to India’s security interests, and the government needs to be agile and continue to monitor the situation carefully. Bolstering contacts between Pakistan and Israel may be a niggling point for India, given the fact that Tel Aviv has been a staunch supporter of New Delhi and has been a voice against cross-border terror.

India needs to tread carefully.

(The writer is a commentator on geo-politics and geo-economics. Views are personal.)