As with most new things, people were (and still are) hesitant to invest their hard-earned money in cryptocurrencies, mostly because it’s a volatile asset. Its prices go up and down like a roller coaster, and over the last one decade, we have seen the crypto market come crashing down one too many times. 

Globally, factors including a tighter regulatory environment, economic pressures, inflation concerns and investor caution add to the uncertainty. 

But everything changed when Donald Trump won the election to become the next President of the United States. His victory acted like a steroid to the cryptocurrency market, injecting it with a surge of renewed interest and fervour.

The result? The total market cap for cryptocurrencies rose from US$ 2.35 trillion on November 6, when election results started coming in, to US$ 3.2 trillion, within the span of a week.

Top performing cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, BNB, Dogecoin, XRP, etc surged between 13 to over a 100 per cent. Bitcoin climbed from US$ 68,317 to US$ 91,376 (at the time of writing) within eight days. Experts expect Bitcoin to reach a staggering US$ 100,000 by the end of this year.

This surge in crypto, as told to The Secretariat by analysts and experts, is driven by optimism surrounding Trump's second term as President. Which is surprising, because the President-elect did a 180-degree on his stance on crypto, going from “It seems like a scam” during his first term, to promising to make the US “the crypto capital of the planet.”

It is expected that the US will have crypto-friendly policies under Trump's second term. That's also what Trump has insinuated repeatedly during his reelection campaign. His party — the Republican Party — will control both houses of Congress when he takes office in January, giving him sweeping powers to push his agenda.

“The last I checked, the US President is still the most powerful person in the world,” said a senior executive at one of the top cryptocurrency trading apps in India, on condition of anonymity. “And this was clearly a Bitcoin election.”

The primary development of cryptocurrencies still happens in the US, he explained. Over the years, the spotlight has shifted to regulatory efforts, with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) taking the lead. True to its reputation, the SEC has focused heavily on enforcement actions as its primary approach to overseeing the crypto industry.

“Here you have a US President who’s talking openly about it and legitimising it as a form of currency. And not only Trump, but the other candidate was also endorsing cryptocurrency,” added the senior executive.

Whether he makes the regulations lenient or restrictive is a test he still has to pass. But one thing’s for sure, his endorsement has sparked an initial euphoria in the crypto market.

The Rupee's Fall

Although Trump’s win has been a key factor in the increase in interest among Indians in crypto, there is another reason that hasn’t been talked about much: The weakening of the Indian rupee against the US dollar. 

The Indian rupee weakened and showed a decrease of value against the US dollar with an increase of almost 0.09 per cent, from Rs 84.40 on November 11 to Rs 84.48 on November 15. In mid-November, the Indian rupee had touched its record low of Rs 84.4 against the U.S. dollar. 

As the rupee depreciates, Indian investors find cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin increasingly profitable. Unlike US traders operating in a stable dollar environment, Indian traders benefit from currency fluctuations that amplify their returns.

“Bitcoin is not just another token or a speculative asset class, but gives you confidence that your money has also grown. At the same time, as your currency loses its value, your crypto investment gives you a hedge against currency devaluation,” said Ekta Mourya, a crypto analyst.

As Trump’s victory presents new opportunities for Indian investors, the landscape evolves. The hope is that clearer regulations will follow.

What It Means For India’s Investors

There is a lot of positivity and anticipation among Indian crypto traders, leading to a rise in the volume of crypto being traded, experts told The Secretariat.

“When Bitcoin hit an all-time-high, it was surprising to see the volume being traded in India. But it gives you an idea of how much money Indian traders are pouring into the market,” said Mourya.

Platforms like Binance and CoinDCX have seen massive interest, with the latter recording its highest hourly volume this quarter. They have also onboarded Gautam Gambir as brand ambassador and launched a new campaign called the Crypto Coach, to help Indians navigate the market safely.

“There is hope that now Donald Trump has won this election — which was being dubbed as the ‘bitcoin election’ — he will bring in these pro-crypto policies in the West, which will also influence the way policies are shaped in India,” says Mourya. 

In India, there are pieces of regulations here and there, which different institutions and departments in the government have laid out, to control this new asset class. “There is a regulatory grey area. Every time you talk about crypto (in India), there is doubt in people’s minds whether this is even legal,” said Mourya.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been very clear in its stance that crypto, or digital virtual asset (DVA) as they call it, cannot be used in lieu of the rupee for any payments or transactions. 

The apex bank also banned other banks from facilitating crypto transactions in 2018, but this was overturned by the Supreme Court in 2020. While the ban is gone, the RBI still expresses concerns, often citing risks like money laundering and financial instability.

In 2022, it was estimated that 97.5 million people, i.e. 7.1 per cent of India’s total population, owned cryptocurrency. Over 50 per cent of these users were below the age of 35. It’s reasonable to assume that this user base has expanded further over the past two years.

This surge in interest comes despite the Indian government's stringent tax policies, introduced in 2022, which include a 30 per cent tax on crypto gains and a 1 per cent TDS (Tax Deducted at Source) on transactions — measures that some argue have dampened market liquidity.

"Although we are taxed at 30 per cent on cryptocurrency in India, the boom will still be beneficial for Indians as an investment, as the price will go up further in my opinion. We still have undervalued assets in cryptocurrency such as Ethereum and Ripple, Chiliz, Ve-chain, Chain link, etc., which will make huge run-ups in the bull market, benefiting Indian corporations, as they will be in profit on their investments," said Kavan Jackson, founder of The Jade Cryptocurrency Company.

In the US, corporations and institutions are already getting drawn to cryptocurrencies, leveraging them as assets they can hold and trade on their balance sheets. In India, however, such clarity and confidence are notably absent.

“But 2025 really looks like the year where we get more clarity on how high net worth individuals or corporations can invest in digital assets in India,” added Mourya.

Jackson though said he is not expecting any changes in India's crypto regulatory environment. He added he will be looking forward to a reduction in the 30 per cent taxation on crypto. "...(it) is a high number for big cap investors and holders of cryptocurrency. The assets do go up, potentially between 2x to 20x, but paying a 30 per cent tax on your returns is pretty big!" he said.

The Indian government and global governments usually keep gold, silver and other precious metals in their reserves, and should start accepting the fact that Bitcoin is digital gold, Jackson further said. "Note (that) there are only 21 million Bitcoins on the planet, out of which 18 to 19 million Bitcoins have already been mined. This recent run up to the low (US$) 90k price area is just the beginning! Bitcoin could reach quarter of a million dollars by the end of next year," he added.

Cryptocurrency has become the proverbial elephant in the room — impossible to overlook, experts agree. With vast amounts of capital flowing into the market, regulators can no longer afford to turn a blind eye.