Needing 270 to win, as of Thursday 2 PM IST, the President-elect bagged 295  electoral college votes to win the Oval Office, compared to 226 for his Democratic Party rival Kamala Harris. He will be the 47th President of the United States when sworn into office. 

For the densely-populated Bangladesh, which saw a regime change just two months ago, Trump wrote, “I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians and other minorities, who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos.”

While much of the remainder of his tweet was a partisan attack on his political rival Kamala Harris, and an attempt to woo religious-ethnic vote bases in the US, Trump also tellingly wrote, “Under my administration, we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi.”

For South Asia watchers, this seemed to imply that Trump may well reverse President Joe Biden and his administration’s strong support for the new rulers in Dhaka — an army-backed government led by Grameen Bank founder and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.   

Trade: The Difficult Frontier

However, the second part of his message remains more in doubt, as during his earlier Presidency, despite being “close” to his “good friend Modi”, the US administration had slapped India with several punitive trade measures designed to pry open the market to US exports. 

Even last month, Trump, in a speech at Detroit, complained that India had the highest tariffs in the world. “I think they (India) probably charge more (tariff) than, in many ways, China. But they do it with a smile,” he said, complaining about how India charged high tariffs on Harley Davidson motorcycles.  

Donald Trump has on occasion described “tariff” as “the most beautiful word in the dictionary. More beautiful than love, more beautiful than respect”.

The Presidential candidate has, in his last Presidency, taken steps to punish both rivals like China and allies like the EU and India, for what he considered impediments to US companies' sales efforts globally.

What he is promising to repeat if elected President again is a far more aggressive approach, in which the US will, on the one hand, force other nations to open up their markets, and on the other, wall itself off from global flow of goods that don't suit its interests. 

India is among the top dozen countries that has a comfortable trade surplus with the US. The US Commerce Department reported that India had a trade surplus of some US$ 43.65 billion in calendar year 2023 with USA. Of course, compared to China, which had a trade surplus of US$ 279.42 billion with the US, this was small change. 

Nevertheless, India’s trade surplus will certainly come in for scrutiny and possibly, action, soon after a Trump administration is sworn in. “Though the US needs us for its strategic re-balancing in the Indo-Pacific, we feel it will lean hard on us to open up markets if President Trump wins,” said Dr Biswajit Dhar, former Director General of the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.

Commerce Ministry officials say the US will “certainly seek lower tariff on farm products, steel equipment, automobiles, telecom gear and clean energy technology products”. 

The US administration, many feel, will also renew demands that India change its rules for data localisation and Intellectual Property Rights policies, to give US firms more leeway in the marketplace here. 

“They will also seek more regulatory transparency, besides better terms for the defense offsets policy, and higher foreign direct investment limits in insurance, banking and defense sectors,” said Commerce Ministry mandarins. 

The Local Policeman Syndrome

However, where India will gain is in Trump’s indicated belief that America cannot continue to pay for the world’s security and that local policemen should take up its job in their backyards, while reporting to the “chief constable” in Washington.

Though Trump is erratic and hard to predict, many believe that he will allow allies greater say in their regions and interfere less. Bangladesh could be a pointer in that direction. 

On the main, over the last two decades, US policy was that India should lead the way in South Asian countries like Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, as far as strategic diplomacy is concerned.

Before that for decades the US had through it interference in those very countries, created piquant situations, often to the detriment of Indian interests.

If Trump goes through with his threat towards Bangladesh, perhaps by allowing India the leeway needed to sort out the chaos that is fast unfolding on its eastern border, it could be a pointer to how the US will conduct global affairs in the years to come. 

Europe may not get the kind of support it was getting in the proxy war the West has been waging against Russia in Ukraine, for instance. However, this may not mean a "green card" for Russia’s strongman Vladimir Putin in his east European backyard.

In the past, Trump has said that the Ukraine war should never have happened because the right “deal” would have prevented it. Only to reverse his thinking months later and reportedly stating: “‘Vladimir, if you go after Ukraine, I am going to hit you so hard, you’re not even going to believe it. I’m going to hit you right in the middle of fricking Moscow.”