Trump 2.0: Strategic Drift In Indo-Pacific?

US President Donald Trump has put Latin America at the centre of his foreign policy. Ensuring the agenda, which focuses on migration, trade, and security, runs through the region. 

The draft of the new National Defence Strategy of the United States of America indicates the abandonment of the traditional policy of containing and counter-balancing China’s expansionist policies in the Indo-Pacific region and focusing on “adversaries” in Central America and South America including regime changes in Venezuela.

Even Brazil is not spared and the US, under the Trump administration, has been accused of staging a coup to remove populist Lula da Silva. 

US To Shift Defence Strategy

If the new National Defence Strategy is adopted, this will be a major shift in the US policy over the past decade including policy pursued under Trump 1.0.  A recent report on the upcoming Strategy suggested it will centre on homeland defence and the western hemisphere, underscoring a shift in priorities as the US faces threats closer to home.

This would also signal that the US is ready to give China space to dominate Asia and may even do a deal with Beijing that helps bilateral business interests. 

How Can India Counter Policy Shift By US

What does this mean for India that has initiated an Indo-Pacific policy to provide a parallel to the Chinese model to countries across the vast region, with the US being one of the partners of its Indo-Pacific initiative.

If the US dilutes its own Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at counter-balancing China and Quad Summit, which is scheduled to be hosted by India this year, is postponed, New Delhi needs to put in a place a strategy that would focus extensively on ASEAN-Japan-South Korea and Australia each through a bilateral framework while simultaneously stabilising ties with China.

Parallelly, BIMSTEC needs to be reinvigorated and strategic partnerships with Mauritius-Oman-Seychelles-South Africa and other African nations along southern and eastern coast need to be deepened each through a bilateral framework.

It is also imperative to focus deeply on the partnership with France in the Indian Ocean region and put in place a Navy-to-Navy partnership with Russia in the region.  

Indian Naval prowess is a force to reckon in the Indian Ocean and it is not dependent on the US for providing it the muscle. Trump has not shown any special interest in the Quad as he feels that it does not bring any tangible economic benefits for the US.

In this context of a bilateral framework to provide stability in the Indo-Pacific region, India’s recent engagements with Japan-Singapore-Philippines and Mauritius are also significant. By appreciating New Delhi’s interest in the Malacca Straits patrol, Singapore has encouraged Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand to back India’s role in the Malacca Straits.

If this fructifies it will help to counterbalance China in the ASEAN region and India will be able to keep a close watch on the Chinese Navy’s designs in the Indian Ocean Region.

US Ties With Japan-South Korea

Tariff is the biggest stick that the Trump administration is using in its pursuit of its foreign policy goals and even treaty allies are not being spared. India should not expect any special treatment notwithstanding the US President’s praise for Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

This is the first time that a Japanese PM had to resign over difficulties in trade ties with the US. South Korean nationals have faced harassment in the US. The Trump administration is determined to Make America Great Again. Negotiations for a trade deal between India and the US will be far from smooth if treatment of Japan and South Korea are any indication.

More than 300 South Korean nationals have been detained in a massive immigration raid at Hyundai plant in Georgia, United States, unthinkable for a treaty ally like Seoul. Seoul and the US had negotiated on the release of detained workers.

South Korea will be sending a chartered flight to bring its nationals back. The treatment of South Korean workers in the US, comes weeks after Washington and Seoul announced a major trade agreement in July which Trump described as historic.

Close to 30,000 US troops are stationed in South Korea. Yet a pressure tactic has been applied by the Trump administration to satisfy its MAGA constituency. 

Lesson For India

The regime’s ‘bully the friends, humiliate the allies, squeeze maximum profits, leave nothing behind’ approach has a lesson for India. White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro’s caustic comments notwithstanding Trump’s message aimed at stabilising ties is a stark reminder that the MAGA crowd has a specific agenda irrespective of positive feelings that Trump has for the Indian PM and vice versa.

The biggest challenge in the relation between the two is yet to come and this can be in the form of crackdown against H1B visa holders. A nightmarish situation awaits that can snowball into a bigger crisis than the tariffs.

The MAGA constituency is oblivious of the fact that Indian professionals are most industrious and disciplined migrants not in the business of exporting extremism and lawlessness and rather contributing to the US technology sector that enabled America to maintain its edge.

The American IT giants some of which are led by Indian Americans need to make their case strongly and decisively.     

(Writer is commentator on geo-politics. Views are personal.)