The US' South-Central Asia Strategy: The Need For India To Adopt A New Approach

The picture reveals that the USA is shaping a new South-Central Asia strategy, in which India may have only a limited role to play, despite the trade deal with New Delhi that is in the offing.

The White House meeting yet again proves and, beyond doubt, that the US is an unreliable partner solely driven by its transactional approach and short-term goals.

The world’s powerhouse is more transactional than ever before under Trump 2.0, as it is now driven by billionaires who hold key Ministerial posts and a President who is not only seeking glory for himself, but also encouraging deals for his family and friends.

Advocates who, for years, called for an India-USA treaty on the lines of Japan or Australia, need a reality check.    

It is beyond any doubt today that Pakistan, led by its Army Chief, got off the block early and devised a strategy to make an entry into the White House by selling dreams of crypto deals, critical minerals, and, more importantly, access to Iran and Afghanistan.

The US's Stakes In West Asia

The American administration, egged on by Israel, is obsessed with regime change in Tehran and is oblivious to the fact that such an operation will have a catastrophic impact on West Asia and the larger Arab World, and even beyond.

Pakistan has skillfully exploited this and is ready to provide any space, be it land, air, or sea, to the US to target Iran.

It has tacitly encouraged the US takeover of the Bagram airbase that would provide the American military a foothold to encircle Iran, Eurasia, and China.

The Cold War playbook is being revived by the Pakistan military establishment, which it considers would make it the favourite son of the USA in the region.

In return, Islamabad has sought White House support to neutralise the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Chabahar Port (to reduce India’s presence in the region).

Pakistan and China view Chabahar Port as a direct threat to Gwadar Port, and also the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. If India has to reduce its role in the Chabahar Port, it will be a monumental setback.

It was India’s first port acquisition abroad, providing an anchor in the northern part of the Indian Ocean Region, which would, in turn, allow New Delhi to maintain its role as the preeminent Indian Ocean Region power.

The US may not have realised it, but it has handed China a victory, at least for now. 

The White House, by cultivating Pakistan, is undermining India’s role in South Asia, even though India-US business ties are growing.

India's Role

Ironically, the Trump administration is undermining India’s role as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific region. Over the past decade, successive US administrations sought to expand the economic and strategic partnerships with India, with the intention to counter-balance China, and even aimed to position Quad as a coalition of democracies against a one-party state – China.

The Quad, though, did little to stop China’s ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region.

And, most importantly, ASEAN states felt uncomfortable with any overtly anti-China narrative. India rightly prevented the militarisation of Quad, and, now, AUKUS and Japan have taken the onus on themselves to build military strength in the Pacific region. For India, even as it expands its footprints in the Pacific region, the priority should remain in the Indian Ocean Region, where India has been the net security provider for decades.  

But it is not just Pakistan alone that hogged the limelight during the recent UN General Assembly. Egged on by Pakistan, the Yunus regime in Bangladesh is now in the good books of the Trump administration. Md Yunus utilised the opportunity to launch a tirade against India through the various platforms he was offered. 

Yunus is providing the US military with a foothold that will allow it to establish a presence in the Bay of Bengal.

In return, the Yunus regime will use the Trump administration to garner support against India. It was nothing but a scandal to hear Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) Deputy Chief accompanying Yunus to the US, launching a frontal attack against India from American soil.

JeI is desperate to capture power in the Bangladesh polls in February 2026, with support from Pakistan and tacit support from the US. Students of modern Bangladesh history would testify that the US deep state had cultivated JeI in the backdrop of its apathy towards the Awami League.

Under the current circumstances, where the Trump administration is betting on Pakistan as its lynchpin in South and Central Asia, the Indian government must rework its strategy. This should include consolidating ties with Mauritius, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives.

Simultaneously, policymakers must start cultivating new political players in Nepal and focus on Myanmar.    

(The writer is a commentator on geo-politics and geo-economics. Views are personal.)