The Great Unravelling: Does Trump Risk Losing India To Moscow & Beijing?

This convergence has been shaped by shared democratic values, mutual economic interests, and a growing alignment in response to the strategic challenge posed by a rising China. 

Over three decades, this relationship evolved from cautious cooperation to a de facto military partnership, crowned by civil nuclear recognition and expanding technological and defence collaboration.

But this painstaking progress is now at serious risk. A series of abrupt, punitive, and ill-conceived actions by the US under President Donald Trump threatens to undo the very foundations of this hard-won strategic partnership. 

If this drift continues, it could drive India back toward a closer alignment with Russia — its principal ally during the Cold War — and even toward a pragmatic détente with China, its rival-turned-potential partner in a newly polarised world.

Such a shift would be nothing short of a geopolitical tragedy for the democratic world. 

At a time when global liberalism is already under siege and authoritarian powers are on the rise, the Trump presidency’s reckless approach — alienating friends and emboldening foes in its obsessive quest to shrink America’s trade deficit — risks isolating one of its most important democratic allies: India.

By threatening secondary sanctions over India’s Russian oil purchases and linking them to security policy, Trump is effectively demanding that India subordinate its sovereign energy choices to US geopolitical goals. 

This comes at a time when India needs Russian oil for its economic stability — and when Moscow, reeling from Western sanctions, is offering oil at discounted rates.

Even more damaging than the tariffs themselves is the tone of Trump’s accusations. He has accused India of “fuelling the Russian war machine", conveniently ignoring the fact that much of Europe — including US allies — continues to do business with Russia in other sectors.

The Indian Foreign Ministry has rightly called out this double standard, describing Trump’s threats as “unjustified and unreasonable.” Meanwhile, Moscow has responded with barely concealed glee, rejecting US coercion and affirming sovereign trade rights.

Art Of The Deal

Trump has also threatened to penalise US firms manufacturing in India — ironically undermining Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s flagship “Make in India” initiative. His statements reflect a fundamental contradiction between “America First” and “Self-Reliant India.” 

In another surreal twist, Trump welcomed Pakistan’s army chief to the White House just weeks after a deadly terror attack in Kashmir killed 26 Indian civilians. He offered Islamabad a favourable 19 per cent tariff rate and even a joint oil exploration proposal — raising eyebrows in New Delhi and deepening suspicions about Washington’s real intentions in South Asia.

And, at the same time, more confusion may be wreaked if China is let off the tariff hook that India has been slung upon.

But this short-term politicking comes at a strategic cost. As former Bush administration officials have pointed out, building trust between New Delhi and Washington took a Herculean effort — overcoming historic mistrust, Cold War legacies, and deep domestic political resistance in both capitals. 

That trust, once eroded, may take decades to rebuild.

Indeed, Trump’s threats have already turned US-India ties into a domestic political issue in India. 

The Indian opposition is using Trump’s bullying to paint the Modi government as weak and pliant. 

The Congress Party, which once led the charge for closer US-India ties during the 2005 civil nuclear deal, now finds itself leading the charge against American interference. This is not just political irony — it is a strategic tragedy.

Strategic Drift

The consequences could be profound. For years, India maintained a careful diplomatic balance — tilting toward the US, even while maintaining ties with Moscow and being cautious with Beijing. But Trump is now making that balance harder to maintain.

Moreover, Trump’s repeated criticism of the BRICS grouping and threat to sanction India for participating in it only underscores how little he understands New Delhi’s strategic calculus. India remains in BRICS not as an ideological ally of Beijing or Moscow, but as a way to hedge and assert strategic autonomy. By threatening punitive action for that participation, Trump is telling India that autonomy will be punished.

This is precisely the kind of hectoring that has pushed many countries into China’s orbit. Trump is offering India a dangerous false choice: Either fall in line with US policy or face punishment. That’s not partnership. That’s pressure. And it could well backfire.

Cold War Calculus

Trump’s techno-nationalist vision — where sharing technology with allies is seen as a threat to American dominance — is another wedge issue. His administration has already curtailed exports and R&D collaboration, further souring ties with India’s large tech community. Proposals to impose up to 250 per cent tariff on pharmaceutical imports will hit India, a key supplier of generics to the US especially hard.

While some experts urge calm, suggesting that Trump is all bluster and will ultimately seek a deal, that is cold comfort. The damage lies not only in what Trump does, but in how he does it: unpredictably, unilaterally, and with a barely disguised contempt for norms, diplomacy, and nuance.

And let’s not forget: America’s deep commercial and societal ties with China didn’t stop them from rapidly unravelling under Trump’s first presidency. What’s happening with India is déjà vu with a different accent.

Some say in geopolitics, trust is the ultimate currency. Trump is squandering it — tweet by tweet, tariff by tariff.