In this pluralistic democracy, it gives multiple voices the power to influence decisions. Urbanisation is a hot topic, which includes the most crowded and unequal areas as well as places full of opportunities and dreams.

Ahead of the general elections, The Secretariat took a close look at the manifestos of the BJP and the Congress. The BJP manifesto promised to keep building new infrastructure like ports, highways, and railways, and to digitise urban records. On the other hand, the Congress manifesto promised balanced growth across regions and strengthening local governance through the 74th Amendment Act, which many states still need to fully adopt.

Next Five Years, A Critical Window

As per the 2011 Census, over 30 per cent of India's population lives in urban areas, and this number is expected to rise to 50 per cent by 2050. There's a pressing need for a fairer urban development approach that promotes inclusive growth and sustainable urbanisation, with a focus on smaller cities and towns.

More than 70 per cent net job creation by 2030 will happen in urban centres, potentially boosting India’s GDP by four times. To achieve this, India needs to invest US$1.2 trillion in capital expenditure, which equals US$115 per person per year, over the next 20 years. Back in 2007, this expenditure was only US$17 per person.

Most of it is to fix India’s existing infrastructure issues, with the rest is needed to meet future urban needs. By 2030, India must build 700-900 million square miles of commercial and residential space, essentially creating a Chicago-sized city every year, at a cost of US$395 billion. Additionally, it must construct 7,400 kilometres of metros and subways at US$392 billion, pave 2.5 billion square miles of roads at US$199 billion, and invest US$96 billion to increase water supply, plus US$100 billion to improve sewage treatment.

If India doesn't act from now, the demand for affordable housing by 2030 will exceed supply by four times, rail-based mass transit demand will be 2.5 times the supply, private transportation demand will double, water demand will double, and sewage treatment demand will be 3.5 times the supply.

As cities grow at different rates and capacities, the focus shouldn't just be on physical development but also on establishing comprehensive, decentralised governance structures, particularly for smaller towns and less developed states.

This Lok Sabha election’s coalition and seat patterns make it the perfect time to discuss these crucial issues.

Smaller Towns, Industries Hold Key 

The Secretariat spoke to Dr Shrawan Kumar Acharya, Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, on the crucial aspects and connections to watch out in the next 5 years. A key aspect, Dr Acharya highlighted for NDA 3.0 was in the area of decentralisation. 

Unlike single-party rule, the coalition government, which is composed of various parties from different states, will ensure more decentralisation of programmes, giving states more power. This shift will balance different political ideologies, contrasting with the BJP’s earlier urbanisation approach.

Issues of equity and poverty have clearly gained importance. Small and medium towns largely voted for the Congress, while the BJP received won the big cities hands down.

Dr Acharya pointed out that during the Covid-19 pandemic, the BJP did not emphasise on the issue of migrants due to its brute majority. Now, employment issues and related concerns are expected to be raised by both partner parties and the opposition.

Both Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar have included Muslims in their development strategies, suggesting a change in stance for future politics. 

For example, Ayodhya (Faizabad seat) was developed as a neo-liberal temple town but did not yield the electoral dividends expected from it. Demolishing structures without consent was one issue, and similar disconnects from ground realities were seen in Varanasi and Kashi Vishwanath. Ignoring the poor and pursuing large-scale projects that displace communities may no longer work.

Chandrababu Naidu, who is pro-urbanisation, will likely push for urban development and modernisation, requiring substantial investment and empowering local bodies. Financing urban development is crucial, especially after the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), as there’s no clear policy on sharing tax revenue. Most GST revenue comes from the states, making taxation a significant issue.

Naidu, known for transforming Hyderabad as chief minister of the united Andhra Pradesh, is likely to revive the Amaravati project in the bifurcated state, pushing for more technology and modernisation. In contrast, the Congress focuses on equity and marginalised communities, emphasising decentralisation and pro-poor policies in their manifesto. Both parties are expected to prioritise Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).

Given a hybrid manifesto approach, this government will need to address equality issues and promote smaller industries. The Smart Cities Mission (SCM) should be realigned with pro-poor priorities. An urban employment guarantee scheme might gain traction as a strong strategy to address urban unemployment.

Decentralisation and pro-poor policies will be central to new policies, especially with a coalition government moving away from the centralised approach of the Modi government. Urban development, a state subject, may see more instances of federalism.

Urban development should address inequality and employment, focusing on small and medium towns. The urban manufacturing sector, particularly small and medium enterprises, needs attention. Affordable housing schemes require serious rethinking. 

Professor Acharya reminded us of the lessons from the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor which show that relocation, eviction, and resettlement create problems. Demolishing homes in a democracy should be avoided, and existing community efforts should be valued. Evictions burden the government with additional services, and new housing often ends up looking worse than slums over time. The Dharavi redevelopment plan could create more issues, potentially affecting micro-enterprises that currently operate with governmental assistance.

As India emerges as a tech hub, technology should be used to upgrade poorer areas, not just modernise newer ones. The focus should be on small and medium towns, which are growing due to improved road connectivity. This will promote regionally balanced development, reduce stress on big cities, and balance migration.

Climate change is another critical issue. Disaster hazards and climate vulnerability need to be addressed through regional planning, considering factors like water basins and regional interdependencies. For example, addressing urban flooding in Bengaluru requires a broader regional approach, considering economic and disaster resilience. Both the manifestos lack this and it will have to come from somewhere. 

Lastly, Professor Acharya highlighted that in the upcoming term, the lack of a Census 2021 will a mjor issue to be sorted out. The absence of which has resulted in the denial of information for urban planning. Abrupt claims and policies can be made without data. 

Conducting a Census is essential for gathering accurate data on housing, migration, and land use. Current surveys by NITI Aayog and other administrative bodies are not scientifically comprehensive. Addressing urban issues effectively requires reliable data and informed decision-making.