Tarique Rahman Caught Between Pragmatism And Radicalism

Although a dynast, this is his first shot at electoral politics, and he promised a ray of hope - different from New Delhi’s 2001-06 experience when his Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) was last in power. Yet he lost the opportunity to accept Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invitation to visit New Delhi and signal that a BNP government could work with its biggest neighbour.

BNP, Radicals And The 2001-06 Rule  

The Bangladesh Prime Minister chose to give credence to his advisers who have a pipe dream of running Bangladesh by sidestepping India and engaging with countries separated by oceans. The BNP think tank or advisers of the Bangladesh Prime Minister appear to ignore reality - reminiscent of the 2001-06 period when Begum Khaleda Zia was the Prime Minister.   

The 2001-06 period was one of the worst phases in India-Bangladesh ties in the last quarter of a century. The BNP regime under Zia pursued an anti-India doctrine between 2001-06. The party appeared pragmatic following the election win early this year, only to later allow radicals and vested interests to dominate India policy. Pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami and the hardliners within the BNP have once again sought to dominate the policymaking vis-à-vis India. 

BNP’s Old Guard And Pragmatism  

The BNP’s old guard includes certain senior leaders who have been keen to build the party’s ties with India and are not impervious to the geography. Some of these leaders currently hold key ministerial portfolios and are conscious that a repeat of the last BNP rule can bring Indo-Bangla ties to a standstill. 

They also realise that making the extradition of ex-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina the main talking point on the agenda can be detrimental to the relationship. These ministers also realise that healthy ties with India are a necessity to bring Bangladesh’s economy back on track amid the brewing energy and power crisis. Yet since the re-election of BNP to power, not a single senior minister has been allowed to undertake a visit to India. The current Foreign Minister, a political lightweight, made a stopover in India while on his way to Mauritius. Instead of senior ministers, BNP government advisers with a dubious past have attempted to visit Delhi over the past six months.

Economic Partnership Of 2009-24    

The radicals may try to undermine and overlook the successes of the Indo-Bangla partnership between 2009-24, but many of the achievements were permanent in nature and have benefited Dhaka. Any pragmatic government in Dhaka should sidestep its ideology and build on the economic achievements. 

Connectivity remains a major pillar of bilateral cooperation. Six pre-1965 rail links between the two countries have been restored, including the Agartala-Akhaura rail link inaugurated in November 2023. Three passenger train services - Maitri Express, Bandhan Express, and Mitali Express – that were in operation earlier, however, have remained temporarily suspended since July 2024 due to security considerations, although goods train operations continue. Road, inland water, and port connectivity have also expanded. Bus services continue on selected routes, while inland waterways cooperation under the Protocol on Inland Waterways Trade and Transit (PIWTT) facilitates trade and transit movement. 

The operationalisation of the Agreement on the use of Chattogram and Mongla Ports is aimed at improving connectivity with India’s North-East. Cooperation in the power and energy sector has become one of the crucial pillars of India- Bangladesh relations. The India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline between both countries for carrying High Speed Diesel from India into Bangladesh was virtually inaugurated on 18 March 2023, which has contributed significantly to addressing Bangladesh's energy security.

Development cooperation has emerged as a key pillar of the bilateral relationship. From modest beginnings in the years after Bangladesh's liberation, India's development cooperation with Bangladesh has grown in size and coverage. With US$ 8 billion in three Lines of Credit (LoC) under implementation, Bangladesh has become India’s largest development partner. 

The first Line of Credit of US$ 1 billion was extended to Bangladesh in 2010 for developing infrastructure projects, mainly in the fields of railways and public transport. 

The Government of India had subsequently converted US$ 200 million out of the US$ 1 billion LoC as grant assistance in June 2012 and also increased the corpus to US$ 862 million.

A second LoC of US$ 2 billion was announced during the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Bangladesh in June 2015. 

Under the 2nd LoC, 16 projects, including mainly in the fields of Power, Railways, Road and Transport, Health and Technical Education, etc, had been identified and are at different stages of implementation. 

The third LoC of US$ 4.5 billion to Bangladesh was announced in April 2017 during the visit of the Prime Minister of Bangladesh to India.  Under it, 15 projects in the fields of Power, Railways, Road and Transport, Health and Technical Education, ITC, Shipping and Solar-based connectivity etc had been identified and are at different stages of approval and implementation.

Prime Minister Modi is keen to continue this trend of assistance to the Tarique Rahman government, provided the regime in Dhaka sees the merit. India’s outreach to its neighbours, either immediate or extended, was never aimed at undermining the sovereignty or territorial integrity.  

It is never too late for the current Bangladesh Prime Minister to make a course correction and visit New Delhi at the earliest to continue with the partnership rooted in history, common culture, and tradition.    

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics and geoeconomics. Views expressed are personal.)