Narayan took over the office of the RGI and Census Commission after 1989-batch Haryana cadre IAS officer Vivek Joshi was shifted to the Ministry of Finance as Secretary Department of Financial Services. Since then, Joshi has been repatriated to his home cadre state and has become the Chief Secretary of Haryana.

Now, given that Narayan’s central deputation has been extended till 2026, his role is likely to be crucial in the next Census exercise, which is expected to kick-off early next year. 

The decennial Census exercise for 2021 was supposed to begin in 2020, but was postponed after the nationwide lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which struck the world early that year. Since then, the Census enumeration has been postponed several times in the last four years.

It now seems that at least four elements are intertwined with the delayed Census exercise. The first is the Census itself. The next is the delimitation of Lok Sabha seats, which means fixing territorial boundaries of constituencies to roughly implement proportional representation of the population from every seat in the Lok Sabha.

Tied to delimitation is the enforcement of the Law on 33 per cent reservation of Parliament seats for women. The Women’s Reservation Bill made it mandatory for delimitation to precede the quota’s rollout. That is the third element.

Finally, there is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s One Nation One Poll (ONOP) plan, to which the government appears committed, despite the need for multiple amendments to the Constitution to make it feasible. 

Taken together, it is clear that the government will have a full calendar of mega-events lined up till 2029. Of course, these events will have to be carried through the storm of opposition they are bound to attract, from both the NDA allies and the Opposition INDIA bloc.

Procedure For Population Enumeration

As per norms, the deadline for freezing the boundaries of administrative units like districts, tehsils, villages, etc, which is a mandatory procedure prior to start of the Census, was repeatedly extended after Census 2021 was deferred. But no extension order was issued after June 30, 2024.

The Census exercise is conducted in two phases. It begins with house listing and a housing Census, for which a set of 31 questions have been prepared so far by the Office of the RGI and Census Commissioner. The house listing and updating of the National Population Register (NPR) exercises were scheduled to be held between April 1 and September 30, 2020. 

The NPR is a biometric database of Indian residents that records data like name, age, address and details of Aadhaar card, mobile phone, passport, etc. But it was marred by controversies and a series of protests due to apprehensions that it would be linked to the National Register of Citizens (NRC), whose entries would involve proof of citizenship either by birth or naturalisation. But, the COVID-19 pandemic doused that fire. It is yet to be known if the NPR will be updated along with the house listing when the exercise begins in 2025.

The second phase is the business end of the decennial Census, with the nationwide population headcount. 

Questions Around Delimitation

It is to be noted here that delimitation is a constitutional requirement after every Census. It was carried out after the 1951, 1961, and 1971 Census, fixing the number of Lok Sabha seats at 494, 522 and 543, respectively, representing the population at that time — 36 crore, 44 crore and 55 crores, respectively.

The exercise was frozen for 25 years for the first time in 1976 by then PM Indira Gandhi, with the stated objective of encouraging population control, though differences between performing and non-performing states were already visible, and the South was beginning to complain about rewarding the poor performers with more seats.

The freeze came through the 42nd Amendment to the Constitution in 1976, and was vaild till 2000. In 2002, the then government led by PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee again amended the Constitution and extended the freeze for another 25 years, till 2026. That amendment is still in force and the current number of Lok Sabha seats continues to be based on the 1971 Census data. 

However, a limited delimitation exercise was carried out in 2002, based on the 2001 Census. It readjusted the boundaries of existing Lok Sabha and Assembly seats, and reworked the number of constituencies reserved for SCs and STs, while keeping the total number of Lok Sabha seats static at 543, based on the 1971 Census.

India’s population has almost doubled since 1971, and even a conservative estimate suggests the number of Lok Sabha seats should be at least 750. This could be one of the reasons why the new Parliament building was constructed at such a rapid pace, to create room to accommodate more members in a post-delimitation scenario.

However, there is a legal question attached to the exercise. Article 82 of the Constitution specifies that delimitation can kick-in only after the data of the first Census taken after 2026 is published. Since the next Census will begin in 2025, a question arises: Will this Census exercise stand legal scrutiny?

A look at the 2011 Census calendar addresses the confusion. Its house listing was held a year earlier, between April and September, 2010. The field work for the second phase — population enumeration — was carried out in February-March, 2011. If the NDA government were to follow that template, it would label the next exercise as Census 2026 — whose exercise would begin in 2025. 

An officer who had served in the Office of the Registrar General of India, said that if the Census happens next year and is called Census 2025, it would not fulfil the requirements of the 84th Amendment that changed Article 82 of the Constitution. 

However, an officer in the Ministry of Law and Justice said barring the Basic Structure and Fundamental Rights, other provisions in the Constitution are not cast in stone, and can be revisited.

“While the 42nd Amendment pushed delimitation to post-2000, the 84th Amendment in 2002 replaced 2000 with 2026. Now, if the government thinks fit, it is fully equipped to advance the end date to 2024 or any other date, to remove the legal and Constitutional hurdle for delimitation,” he said, adding that even the requirement of endorsement through simple resolution by one-half of the state Assemblies can be cleared easily, as over 50 per cent of the states in the country are currently ruled by the NDA.

North-South Divide

The delimitation is bound to open up old wounds, and drive a wedge between the North and the South. NDA ally and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu triggered a storm by calling on women in his state to bear at least two children to stabilise its population.

Andhra Pradesh’s birth rate is under the replacement level of 2.1 live births per woman. Naidu’s Tamil Nadu counterpart, M K Stalin, linked it to the delimitation exercise, saying people could end up thinking about raising “16 children” for demographic rebalance, alluding to a Tamil saying. 

The South is wary because if delimitation in its present form gets the green light, its share of Lok Sabha seats would drop drastically, and so would their clout in national decision making.

Sources in the government, however, indicated that before the delimitation ball is set in motion, additional factors beyond population could be introduced to address the issue. For example, provisions for inclusion of those who are underrepresented owing to social factors.

Another suggestion is to increase the number of seats in certain geographies, so that no state ends up losing constituencies. But that could mean enhancing the numerical gulf between the North and the South.

Some experts say the debate over regional imbalance is misplaced. Political analyst and former Patna University professor N K Chaudhary said, “Regionalism is bad for India. Highly populated states have their own economic disadvantages, just as in the past, mineral-rich states lost out from freight equalisation. Besides, India is not an ideal federation like the US, where equal representation is given to each of the states in the Senate, irrespective of their size and population.” 

He added: “We have another model, of Nepal, where the mountainous regions have higher representation in the national assembly, despite having less population than the ‘tarai’ (foothills and plains). This is erroneous, as it is devoid of natural justice and principles of democracy.” 

According to him, a national consensus should be arrived at, before carrying out delimitation of Parliamentary and Assembly constituencies, and the genuine concerns of the states having lower population should be addressed before taking the final decision. He was of the view that all options, including that of maintaining the present proportion of representation, could be tried, while increasing the overall number of seats in Parliament and state Assemblies. Also, a new system of resource allocation could be worked out, he suggested.

Caste Census

Several political leaders, activists and civil society groups have demanded a broader caste Census, arguing that it is essential to accurately assess the social landscape in order to ensure targeted policy interventions. The demand gained further prominence when Bihar released its own caste survey results, aimed at providing a clearer picture of the socioeconomic conditions of various communities. The Congress-led Opposition alliance INDIA has intensified the call for a national caste Census, in recognition that caste-based inequities continue to shape many Indians’ lives.

Government sources, however, said there is no clarity yet on conducting a caste Census, a demand that was even supported by key NDA allies like the JD(U) and the TDP. If a favourable decision is taken in this regard, sources said a ‘caste’ field would possibly be added to the house-listing schedule. They also added that the Census 2021 house-listing schedule that was notified in January 2020 has 31 fields, sans ‘caste’.

Questions On Sects

Amid growing demand for a caste Census, there is also an issue of enumeration of sect-affiliation in different communities. Groups such as Lingayats in Karnataka, who identify as a distinct sect within Hinduism, are among those advocating for recognition of sect-based identities. There is also demand within Scheduled Castes for recognition of sect-specific identities, such as Valmikis and Ravidasis. The Census could potentially reflect these identity nuances, though the government is yet to take a decision on it.