Perils Of Iran War And Global Implications

US allies across the region are getting battered, and the Gulf model of peace and prosperity is under severe strain. The UAE would have never imagined that its civilian infrastructure would ever come under a military attack. Neither did Qatar ever imagine that Iran would force the closure of airspace over the Gulf country, given its economic ties with Tehran. Kuwait had erased memories of the Gulf War and an attack was unimaginable.

Millions Affected

Yet Trump’s intervention in the midst of negotiations shook the very foundations on which the Gulf model rests. The war is not just taking a toll on the combatants but also millions of civilians in Iran as well as in the Gulf, including millions of expatriate population, damaging economies in their respective countries of origin.

Oil prices are once again on an upward trajectory, and the world’s top airlines are bleeding. The tourism industry is also under stress, not only in the Gulf but also in Europe, due to the airspace closures. 

Restrained Response  

The UAE leadership that has maintained favourable ties with Iran realises this and has restrained its response. The Gulf states have been restrained in their approach and have so far adopted a defensive strategy, hoping to enter into a détente. The economic costs are huge, and the Trump administration, driven by its agenda to install a pliable regime in Tehran, failed to calculate the global economic fallout.

That Trump decided to launch a lethal strike amid negotiations that had reached an advanced stage has also shaken the very foundations of trust in the US. Oman realised that even allies cannot take the US support for granted. Oman’s neutrality is legendary, and it enjoys supreme trust of all sides for decades, but the Trump administration has delivered a lethal message to partners like Oman, and confidence in future will be low.

Iran Is No Pushover 

America’s sense of history is often abysmal – its understanding of civilisational states has been its strength. Having locked in a confrontational relationship with Iran for decades, it was expected that any US administration would be well aware that Iran is no pushover and that Iran is neither Iraq nor Libya. It is a homogeneous nation in the context of a nation-state with a strong sense of pride. 

With a population of 92 million, Iran is the 17th-largest country in the world by population and land area. It is about one-sixth the size of Europe, about one-fifth the size of Australia, roughly half the size of India and about 80 times larger than Israel. Iran’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) is US$ 418 billion, ranking it 36th in terms of the economy size. Iran’s adult literacy rate is 89%, with youth literacy nearing 99%, and the population is among the most skilled in the wider West Asian region. 

Their scientific advancement despite years of sanctions has been exemplary. The country is rich in oil and gas, ranking as the world’s ninth-largest oil producer and third-largest natural gas producer. Consider this: with 9.6 million citizens, Tehran has been Iran’s capital since 1795 and is the country’s largest city. Tehran’s history dates back more than 6,000 years. Several of Iran’s other cities have a history that pre-dates both Christianity and Islam. 

Venezuela-Type Operation Impossible 

External attack only consolidates pride among the locals. A quick victory or a Venezuela-type operation is virtually impossible in Iran. Still, the neo-conservatives in the US and certain members of the current administration appear to be directing a Hollywood movie like Top Gun, with the Defence Secretary describing the attack on the Iranian ship in a dramatic description of events.

Latin American nations have often resisted the US intervention, but are flexible in their political approach in dealing with the US. The very ethos of present-day Iran is very different, where the concept of martyrdom runs deep based on Shia beliefs, unlike various other states of the Gulf.

Therefore, handling Iran needs special skills that the Americans have historically lacked. It is for no reason that the Gulf states had tried to convince Trump against attacking Iran, fearing fallout. There is still an opportunity for Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi to convince Trump to withdraw from the conflict to prevent the regional and global economy from entering a phase of recession. 

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics and geoeconomics. Views are personal.)