Since the US lost its influence in Tehran in 1979, Pakistan has occasionally been used by the US to pass on messages to the Iranian leadership.

However, circumstances have changed, and the current Iranian leadership is wounded and may not be easily amenable to the terms and conditions laid down by the Trump administration. Pakistan’s job is tougher than ever before.

Simultaneously, the Field Marshal has warned the country’s Shia community to stay loyal to Pakistan — a statement that is being read carefully in Tehran. The Shia community’s condition in Pakistan is no better, and Iran in the past has expressed concerns many a time. Pakistan has the world's second-largest Shi'ite population after Iran, and its streets witnessed protests in the aftermath of the killing of the Iranian Supreme Leader.

Iran-Pakistan Border Tensions

In the aftermath of the Iran-Pakistan border tensions, the International Institute of Strategic Studies, in a report titled, The Tit-For-Tat Conflict Between Iran And Pakistan, pointed out: Relations between Iran and Pakistan worsened after the 1979 Iranian Revolution, when Shiism became the central organising force for Iran’s government, and Islam thus became a divisive issue between the countries. After the secession of Bangladesh from the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in 1971, and particularly during the rule of Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq, who came to power in 1977, Islamabad promoted Islam to consolidate its national identity.

It further highlights that "over time, this shifted from an Islamic to a more specifically Sunni identity. In post-revolution Iran, however, promoting Shiism and protecting Shia communities both domestically and externally became paramount." 

Iran-Pakistan Relations

The Iran-Pakistan relationship faces complexity due to cross-border insurgency in Balochistan, the 2024 tit-for-tat strikes, and Pakistan's ties with Saudi Arabia. The current Iranian leadership has also taken note of the use of Pakistani airspace by the US for targeting Iran both in 2025 and 2026.

Pakistan is caught between maintaining strong ties with Saudi Arabia and having an amicable relationship with Iran.

The Field Marshall may have been smart to stay out of active participation in the war, but Riyadh, which contributes to the Pakistan economy, is keeping a close vigil. Pakistan has more to lose by sidestepping the request from Riyadh for visas to free oil to hard cash. Islamabad is in dire need of this support to keep its economy afloat. Pakistani workers in Saudi Arabia are key to remittances back home, and if a full-blown war breaks out in the Gulf, Pakistan's economy will take a further hit.  

Pakistan's Balancing Act

The situation is critical, with analysts highlighting that Pakistan's balancing act is increasingly difficult under the pressure of regional and sectarian tensions. All eyes are on the US-Pakistan deal, with Trump trusting Gen Asim Muir to deliver a miracle. Over the past year, their chemistry has deepened, and the US President has a belief that the Field Marshal has the capacity to deliver. The US also seem to believe that, like in 1971 when Pakistan opened doors for the USA in China, the same feat can be achieved in Iran. But history does not always repeat itself.  

India should closely monitor the US-Pakistan tango over Iran, even if it does not react publicly. Islamabad will not seek financial benefits in the form of hard cash and investments from the US but is likely to seek political support from Washington against India.

The Pakistan military is also expected to seek additional military support from the US to “fight terror”, but will use the defence hardware against India and will be emboldened to orchestrate cross-border terror strikes. The US runs the risk of spoiling its ties with India and also allow China to have access to its defence hardware via Pakistan. Islamabad is a snake that needs to be countered, not pampered.  

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics. Views expressed are personal.)