India can never be just one of the many foreign policy priorities for Bangladesh. New Delhi has been, and should remain, the priority for Dhaka. The history and future of the two nations are intertwined more than any of Bangladesh’s relations abroad. BNP’s past attempts to overlook India and pursue foreign relations did not yield the desired results.

The initial steps by the BNP in the run-up to the elections can be described as forward-looking and an attempt to stitch a partnership based on geography and economic realities. The party would do better if it could control some of the voices that emerged after the polls. It would also bode well for BNP if it pursues inclusive politics and lifts the ban on Awami League, Bangladesh’s oldest political party. Multiparty politics would strengthen Bangladesh’s global standing and boost Rahman’s credibility.

What Lies Ahead For BNP

Out of power since 2007, BNP’s biggest challenge will be governance and bureaucracy. Rahman has no experience in running any Ministry and, therefore, needs to select his Ministers and advisers carefully. A mix of experienced hands and youth will help prepare Bangladesh for the future and consolidate on the economic gains of the Awami League government. 

The challenges that BNP confronts are corruption and controlling its own party members from misusing power. While the GenZ blamed the Awami League for corruption, the BNP was no less corrupt when in power. It is incumbent on the Rahman to make his citizens feel confident in his system to prevent another round of protests. History books are testimony that Rahman ran a parallel government, often indulging in nepotism and extortion when Khaleda Zia, his mother, was the Prime Minister of Bangladesh.

Equally important is the protection of minorities in Bangladesh. The minorities have faced the brunt from the very moment the Awami League was ousted from power in August 2024. The BNP has raised their voice to protect the minorities, but its track record when in power between 2001 and 2006 has been less than satisfactory. The minorities were on the receiving end for the entire five-year period. BNP’s attempt to appear as a saviour of minorities in the absence of the Awami League at this moment appears to be a political tactic. 

India's Concern 

India’s primary concern in Bangladesh has been the existence of radical forces and extremists and the lack of adequate efforts by the government in Dhaka to address this issue. Sheikh Hasina, as the Prime Minister, tried her best to control and neutralise the extremists but was not fully successful, and this also contributed to her downfall. The movement that ousted her was orchestrated by the Islamists with support from external powers.

Hasina, however, never allowed Pakistan-sponsored terror cells and extremist cells to operate from Bangladeshi soil to target India. And in less than one year into power in 2009, Hasina handed over to India every insurgent operating from Bangladeshi soil. This contributed to the strong foundation of the India-Bangladesh partnership between 2009 and 2024.

The BNP government needs to continue with this policy in its own and India’s interests. The 2001-06 BNP-Jamaat rule was infamous for Rahman’s alleged direct involvement in abetting, sponsoring, and encouraging insurgents and Pakistan Army-ISI-backed terror cells, including the LeT unit. 

Pragmatic Approach

The circumstances have changed, and as realpolitik demands, Rahman has adopted a pragmatic approach, accepting the emissary of the Indian Prime Minister. All depends on how much Rahman can act independently, guided by BNP leaders who are aware of the benefits of the ties with India. 

The BNP leaders are well aware that giving Pakistan a platform in Bangladesh and compromising India’s security interests would adversely impact the ties with New Delhi and, subsequently, Bangladesh’s economy. The new government should also be mindful of giving space to powers beyond the Indian sub-continent.

Yet, the Jamaat-e-Islami and Pakistan lobby within the BNP would attempt to influence Rahman. Jamaat-e-Islami would up the ante by sharpening its anti-India rhetoric. Jamaat and its patron within the interim regime feel cornered with the election results. Despite winning seventy seats and emerging as the second-largest political force in Bangladesh in the absence of the Awami League, Jamaat-e-Islami failed to translate its numerical presence into political success. The outfit backed by Pakistan may not rest and could even attempt to disturb the stability of the BNP government. 

It is in Rahman’s own interests that it pursues a policy that benefits Bangladesh and its closest neighbour. Friendly ties with India can only benefit Bangladesh’s economy, which is facing headwinds.

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics and geoeconomics. Views are personal.)