One was the death anniversary of the two-time prime minister and one of the most charismatic leaders from Asia, Benazir Bhutto, who could have made a difference had she not been assassinated on December 27, 2007.

The other is of faith-driven militancy and terrorism that worked to remove Benazir from the scene and has now begun to defy even the all-powerful security establishment. Last month, Pakistan also ritually mourned the December 16, 2014 massacre of 140 students and teachers at an Army School in Peshawar, by home-grown militants.

The significance of these anniversaries last year lies in the unprecedented political instability and economic distress confronting Pakistan, which in turn are the result of these two trends – militancy and political instability.

It is said a weak neighbour is bad for any nation’s polity – its’ ability to export its problems could well spell trouble for the years ahead for the entire region.

Rule Through Proxy

Two constants have become entrenched in Pakistan deeper than before since Benazir’s exit.

The security establishment is unlikely to seize power as it did in the past and would prefer to rule through proxy. The political class remains divided and manipulated with a ‘favourite’ chosen from time to time by the ‘establishment’ and on becoming difficult to deal with, is discarded.

Despite the obvious flaws in the system which has come into place, there is every prospect of this kind of a ‘controlled’ democracy persisting, one election after another, piloted by one ‘favourite’ after the other.

For India, more worrying is the apparent loss of the establishment’s control over militancy and terror groups. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), responsible for Benazir’s killing, now has under its umbrella Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and several other militant groups and affiliates.

Terror Gone Rogue

These terror groups which were at one time created for a shadow war with India have grown beyond control and have traversed Pakistan’s other border, into Afghanistan. Various deals and cease-fires have failed.Pakistan now rues its “strategic depth” gambit with the Afghan Taliban whom it helped put in power in Kabul. They are infinitely more supportive of the TTP, their ideological brothers, than the Pakistan Army, their benefactors at one stage.

Throughout Pakistan’s electoral history, holding timely — and free and fair polls — has always been an uphill struggle. Up until a few weeks ago, there were considerable doubts about whether elections would actually be held in February. These worries subsided after the Supreme Court intervened.

But an equally important question continues to dog, about the fairness and transparency of the electoral process. Post May 9, 2023, when ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan’s supporters turned violent to protest his arrest and attacked the military institutions – almost sacrosanct – his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has claimed it is being erased as a political entity by the State.

There is sufficient evidence to support these plaints in that almost all top leaders have either retired or formed splinter parties. Khan remains in custody with numerous cases and convictions piled up. His veritable battles take him from one court to another. His key aides are re-arrested on release.

In decades past, the National Awami Party, PPP and the PML-N have all had obstacles placed in their way, and now it is the PTI’s turn to face the displeasure of the powers that be.

The New Favourite

The current ‘favourite’ of the establishment seems to be Imran Khan’s principal rival and three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who has been acquitted in one graft case after another. He will however still have an uphill task ahead to cobble up a majority. Going by his record, the Establishment would not want him to be too comfortable, lest he should turn defiant again.

Benazir’s party and family benefited politically in the election that ensued after her assassination and took power. Since then, they have ruled the Sindh, with her son as the anointed heir to the hoary legacy.

However, his fortunes will depend upon how the army views him, given the Bhutto family’s political record and of course the outcome of the polls.

What For India ?

What is in store for India? There is little use in promoting open hostility unless there is any provocation. India needs to strike a via media appropriate to its strength and presence in the region and if the opportunity affords itself be open to commerce with its neighbour.

Much has been written about Nawaz Sharif’s conciliatory utterances about India, even about the Kargil conflict, which he blamed the military for.

A businessman who has advocated close economic ties with India in the past, Sharif will have to ensure the army’s support to any future moves towards peace with India. The last time he was removed, one of the insinuations was that he wanted to strike a “business deal” with India.

As for the army, its former Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa had asked for Pakistan to move “from geopolitics to geo-economics,” implying he may favour trade ties with India.

India-Pakistan trade has a chequered history and this relationship has largely been determined by political relations, four military conflicts and by Pakistan’s use of terrorists in cross-border attacks on India.

Trade: Glass Half Full

According to a World bank report ‘ A Glass Half Full: The Promise of Regional Trade in South Asia’ written 5 years back, Indo-Pakistan trade has the potential to increase from a mere US $ 2 billion at that time to US $ 37 billion if both nations would agree to remove tariff and non-tariff barriers.

However, in reality trade has plummeted or been driven to a costlier route – via Dubai.

Pakistan’s response to India’s annulment of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir was to snap trade ties. India too slapped a 200 per cent tariff on Pakistani imports in early 2019 when Pakistan’s Most Favoured Nation (MFN) designation was removed in the aftermath of the Pulwama terrorist incident.

India exports to Pakistan was US$ 629.46 million during 2022, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade.

Analysts feel Pakistan could reinvigorate its economic growth by re-establishing trade ties with India. However, a movement forward will depend a lot on the internal politics of both nations

However, both Imran Khan and sections of the military felt that Bajwa who had then returned from Washington was merely advocating the known American line. The military may despite Pakistan’s rising economic woes, may not wish for a reconciliation with India which could make its pre-dominance as the protector of the nation and its Islamic moorings, irrelevant.

For India, the other problem is that even if the Pakistani political and military establishment agree on improving ties, the non-state actors such as TTP, and other terror groups ranging from the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) to Al Qaida could still queer the pitch by acting as rogue elements troubling both the Pakistan state as well as the India.

The export of militancy from Pakistan into Kashmir may well continue under such circumstances belying hopes for peace which may arise from any moves by Sharif with the backing of the army.

However, that does not mean India should remain aloof to overtures. The bottom line would be to await the outcome of the elections in both countries and see how the wind blows from the Hindu-Kush to the waters of Karachi harbour and then take a call on whether “good-neighbourly sentiments” can prevail.

(The author is a senior journalist and columnist. Views expressed are personal)