Myanmar’s New Presidency Could Boost India’s Economic Footprint

The Presidency of Min Aung Hlaing in Myanmar has the potential to open a new chapter of bilateral ties with India. From cooperation in the mining sector to bilateral trade, the two countries must leverage this opportunity to the fullest

Act East, Myanmar, Aung Hlaing, Myanmar Presidency, President of Myanmar, Southeast Asia, SE Asia

Act East. Neighbourhood First. Indo-Pacific. Myanmar stands at the confluence of India’s three key foreign policy initiatives. Today, the Southeast Asian nation has a new President: Min Aung Hlaing. This presents a significant opportunity for both India and Myanmar to elevate a partnership based on deep-rooted history and geography.

Myanmar, despite its vast natural resources, never makes headlines in the global media due to prevalent bias against the country’s ruling elite. 

Now, the people of Myanmar have entrusted renewed hopes to the new leadership, with the expectation that it will leverage its experience, discernment, organisational capabilities, and diplomatic rapport with major partner nations to reconstruct and transform the nation into a stable regional state.

Myanmar's Power Structure

With the convening of the respective Houses of Parliament, the legislatures have proceeded to elect the President of Myanmar, officially appointing Senior General Hlaing as the country’s President.

Although Hlaing was elected while holding his current military rank as a civil servant, the Constitution of Myanmar mandates that the President and Vice-Presidents must resign from their positions as parliamentary representatives or retire from civil service upon their election. 

Among the two currently elected Vice-Presidents, U. Nyo Saw is a retired General of the Tatmadaw, known for his strategic and influential role in Myanmar’s economic sector. He is widely regarded as a capable leader who will drive the national economy under the President’s guidance.

The other Vice-President, Daw Nan Ni Ni Aye, an ethnic minority representative, is expected to make significant strides in promoting ethnic reconciliation, as well as enhancing social welfare, healthcare, and the development of women and children under the President’s leadership. 

Furthermore, it is expected that the President may exercise the authority to form a National Advisory Council. The Council, if formed, will provide strategic advice to the President on administrative, defence, and security matters to ensure a seamless transition towards Myanmar’s national development.

India’s Strategic Interests

New Delhi’s ties with Myanmar are multi-layered and strategic. 

India has naturally been the first to respond to Myanmar’s needs at the time of natural disasters such as Cyclone Mocha in 2023, Typhoon Yagi in 2024, and the Mandalay earthquake in 2025. India’s cooperation is wide-ranging, including in political, security, defence, trade, investment, connectivity, developmental assistance, and humanitarian support.

In the context of the ongoing internal conflict in Myanmar, India is ready to help find a solution that is Myanmar-led, Myanmar-owned, and best suited for Myanmar.

India has always believed that a purely security-based approach in isolation from political discussions has its limitations. But the government that has now taken charge would help find a political way forward. The two nations now need to hold talks based on the spirit of "give-and-take" to address the current situation meaningfully and achieve durable peace and stability in Myanmar.

Resolution Through Dialogue

As a close neighbour with deep ties with the people of Myanmar, India’s interest lies in seeing peace and stability in the country, cessation of violence, and resolution of issues through dialogue.

India has been involved in the democratic transition process in Myanmar and has worked with diverse stakeholders on capacity-building and experience-sharing on democratic systems and practices.

Two lecture series on Constitutionalism and Federalism (in Naypyitaw in June 2023 and in New Delhi in November 2024, respectively), followed by two workshops (in Yangon in March 2024 and again in Yangon in November 2025), saw the participation of 25 to 30 political parties and ethnic armed organisations of Myanmar. India hopes it will continue to engage other relevant stakeholders of Myanmar to support its democratic transition through an inclusive process.

The ongoing conflict and instability have implications for the region. This could lead to an increase in transnational crimes, such as cybercrimes, illegal drug trade, and human trafficking. Over 2,600 Indian nationals have been rescued since July 2022 from the Myawaddy area, with the efforts of the Indian Embassy. 

The transnational crime hubs in Myawaddy need continuous engagement with all stakeholders. India is supporting all relevant bilateral and multilateral efforts to counter the challenges.

Economic Links

India shares a 1,643-km land border with Myanmar, as well as a 1098-km maritime border. What India needs to do now is to ensure peace, security, and stability at the border, while at the same promote connectivity, development, and people-to-people ties.

India is pursuing the Kaladan and India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway projects, which are in progress, albeit at a slow pace. New Delhi requires Myanmar’s continued and utmost support for these two strategic projects.

India’s trade has expanded over the years, with annual trade showing a 22.9% annual growth, touching US$2.15 billion in FY2024-25 (Myanmar exports were US$1.53 billion, and Indian outbound shipments were at US$614.3 million).

In particular, pulses comprised about 77% of Myanmar’s exports to India and increased by 29.1% in FY2024-25. India’s exports to Myanmar have continued to grow, while overall trade has held steady. India has extended its open import policy under OGL for beans and pulses for the year 2026-27. This will help the farmers of Myanmar and provide them with greater certainty and stability.

Rupee-Kyat Settlement

The Rupee-Kyat settlement has also been functional since January 2024. This needs to be further expanded. Bilateral trade will be key, particularly in sectors such as fuel and pharmaceuticals. These exports from India could be scaled up by Myanmar under the Rupee-Kyat mechanism, and against its beans and pulses exports in Rupees.

Besides, cooperation in the mining sector, including rare earths, can be a potentially large and important area of investment. India is ready to source heavy rare earths from Myanmar, particularly on a B2B basis, as well as provide technological support and training for exploration and mining, in a scientific and environmentally sustainable manner.

It is a misnomer that Myanmar is fully oriented towards China. Hlaing is experienced and capable of balancing ties between India, China, and Russia. The new power structure can open a new chapter for India. New Delhi must aim to enhance its economic presence in the resource-rich country. 

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics. Views expressed are personal.)

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