In this video, we explain why economists now believe the monsoon, not oil prices, is the biggest risk to India's economy. We examine how weak rainfall can affect crop production, food inflation, consumer demand, manufacturing, government finances, infrastructure spending, banking, and even the Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decisions. Can India's improved irrigation, record foodgrain reserves, and stronger rural infrastructure cushion the impact? Or could a prolonged rainfall deficit slow one of the world's fastest-growing major economies? Watch this detailed explainer to understand why the next few weeks of rainfall could determine India's economic trajectory in 2026.