Kabhi Haan, Kabhi Naa: India To Resume Direct Flights To China Soon?

After a five-year moratorium on flights between the two countries in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and the military stand-off in Galwan, the Government of India has quietly begun talks to restart direct flights to China.

However, top officials caution that they are not raising the subject at the highest level right now. "When we have a stand-off with Pakistan over Pahalgam, it's tough to sell a normalisation measure with another neighbour with whom we had a different, but perhaps more serious, military impasse." 

The Frustration Of The Past 5 Years

Over the last five years, travellers from both countries had to fly via a third country to reach their respective destinations. It involved longer hours through a maze of detours, often involving long layovers, transit visas that added paperwork and stress, especially for first-time travellers, not to mention the added burden of higher costs.

With direct India-China flights suspended, travellers now reroute through hubs like Dubai, Singapore, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, or Hanoi. Instead of a 5-7 hour direct flight, journeys stretch to 12-20 hours.

Delhi to Shanghai via Dubai or Abu Dhabi can take 16+ hours, sometimes overnight. Mumbai to Beijing via Singapore adds 5-8 hours due to layovers. Chennai to Guangzhou via Kuala Lumpur means switching terminals and airlines. Costs have surged, with round trips often costing US$ 700-1,000, compared to US$ 500 earlier.

“Apart from the higher cost, passengers faced other troubles. For example, missed connections and lost baggage are more common with multi-leg itineraries,” said Rajan Sehgal, President, IGTA (India Golf Tourism Association). “For business travellers, tight schedules are upended; students and families face added fatigue. Flight rescheduling and cancellations are frequent, with limited flexibility,” he added. 

These are burdens Asia's two topmost economic giants and populous countries can ill-afford, despite their tense political relationship. That's because despite the occasional sabre-rattling, they have a strong trade relationship, with the bilateral trade having reached US$ 136 billion in 2023.

India continues to import a wide range of goods from its second-largest trading partner China, including electronics, pharmaceuticals and machinery, while exporting minerals, organic chemicals and cotton.

The Ice Is Melting 

Few recent developments suggest a shift in the Indian government’s stance on China than the talks of reviving direct air connectivity with the Dragon. While the official posture remains firm, behind-the-scenes discussions appear to be gaining momentum.

The first signs of a thaw came in January, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow. In a sign of warming ties, India and China agreed to address longstanding trade and economic differences.

An agreement is expected to lay the groundwork for renewed cooperation in several sectors, including civil aviation. The move could be particularly significant for China, whose airline industry has been slow to recover from the impact of the pandemic.

Now, a senior official in the Civil Aviation Ministry confirmed the talks of restarting direct passenger air services between various cities. “In terms of direct India-China flights, although no specific dates have been finalised yet, the government is hoping to resolve and start flights before August."

"The civil aviation ministry and our counterpart in China have had one round of meeting," the official told The Secretariat. “There still are some issues to resolve, though," he added, without going into the details.

What's Going On? 

Meanwhile, the Indian government is talking to Indian airlines about restarting direct flights to China, asking them whether the routes are commercially feasible. The airlines are also looking for clarity on visa rules and passenger interest, while both sides iron out regulatory and diplomatic matters.

The authorities are also monitoring regional tensions that may affect decisions. The final outcome will depend on mutual cooperation and the readiness of the service providers.

The Story Behind The Suspension Of Flights

Five years ago, in December 2019, before Covid-19 had started playing havoc, India and China were connected through 539 direct passenger flights. Cut to now, and there are no direct flights. 

Prominent Indian operators, Air India and IndiGo, used to have flights to cities like Shanghai, Guangzhou Beijing and Chengdu, while Chinese players like Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines used to connect Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou to Indian cities like Bengaluru.

Both countries had suspended all commercial flights as soon as they declared full lockdowns in the wake of the pandemic. With the phase-wise lifting of lockdowns across India later in 2020, even as the Indian government was debating lifting of the suspension on flights, the armies of both countries got involved in clashes along the border, in which an Indian Army personnel died and many were injured. And the suspension got reinforced.

Later on, China proposed that the two countries should keep the border issue separate, while discussing other bilateral issues like trade cooperation and cultural exchanges, but India insisted that all other issues could wait till the friction points were resolved to maintain sustainable peace and tranquillity along the border.

Despite these frictions, both sides have made efforts to stabilise the border situation and maintain bilateral trade relations. But before the BRICS summit at Russia's Kazan, the leaders of the two countries hadn't met personally, despite both attending several multilateral fora. 

The Rise of South East Asia Carriers 

The lack of direct air connections between India and China has prompted a notable change in travel behaviour in Southeast and East Asia. Major Southeast Asian cities like Bangkok, Singapore and Kuala Lumpur have become transit hubs, offering Indian and Chinese travelers a practical — if not optimal — alternative for journeys between the two countries.

Taking advantage of the absence of Indian and Chinese carriers on India-China routes were carriers like Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific, Thai Airways, Malaysia Airlines and Singapore Airlines. In fact, it sparked heightened competition among carriers across the region.

Budget airlines in particular have seized the opportunity by launching innovative new routes that cater to this demand. It saw the rise of new players like VietJet Air, Vietnam Airlines, Cambodia's Angkor Air and Thailand's Nok Air. These indirect routes even managed to bring down the travel time by up to three hours in some cases. 

Loss of Trade In Absence of Flights 

The prospect of resumption of direct flights between the two countries has raised public health and strategic concerns, particularly in the aftermath of Covid, even though health officials and security analysts agree that increased air connectivity could accelerate trade and investment. 

“Economically, direct flights support business, tourism and academic exchanges, making cross-border operations more efficient. We have already suffered losses due to the suspension. I expect a positive response from both sides soon,” said Subhash Goyal, Chairman of STIC Travels.

The challenge for India lies in balancing the benefits of open trade and connectivity with issues of national security and economic self-reliance. At a time when the world is reeling from heightened uncertainties, resumption of flights would symbolise opportunity for the two Indo-Pacific powers, posing a strategic challenge for countries like the US.

Until then, though, patience is the only passport.