Israel-Iran War: Can India Mediate To Defuse Tensions?

The move was aimed not only at weakening the Iranian regime, but also at consolidating Bibi’s position in Israeli politics.

Although the Trump administration has publicly disassociated itself from Bibi’s move, the US believes that a weak Iran will offer better concessions while negotiating a peace deal.

Bibi’s gamble may not yield desired results, and would put energy-rich West Asia at risk. Oil prices may spiral to a new level, impacting the global economy. The impact could be even worse for emerging economies, including India. A higher crude price for India, which is import-dependent for its oil, would directly impact domestic prices.

Bibi was also apprehensive that, without a pre-emptive strike, Iran and the US may reach a deal that allows Tehran to have a nuclear option. The Israeli PM’s move may not get broad support from the Gulf monarchies, who, besides building deterrence vis-à-vis Iran, were also looking at inking deals with Tehran.

The monarchies fear that Iran may start targeting US assets and bases in Gulf countries if Israel pushes Tehran into a corner. This will deal a major blow to the Gulf economies, as this would dent global oil trade.

The Gulf monarchies, especially Oman, could play an important role in defusing tensions. Besides, any move by Saudi Arabia to establish diplomatic ties with Israel, too, will have to be postponed amid the current circumstances.   

Israel, though, may somewhat achieve its goal and weaken the Iranian regime, but Tehran’s retaliation targeting key installations in its territory and the subsequent cost-benefit analysis could just make things difficult for Bibi.

Israeli politics may not be kind to Bibi unless he wins this conflict decisively. Undoubtedly, Bibi is an astute leader. He will use all his wisdom to safeguard his government and his reputation.

Why India Is In A Spot

For India, it is a Catch 22 situation given its growing strategic ties with Israel and equally important relations with Iran — the gateway to Eurasia, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

For India, Iran is a useful partner to counter Pakistan in regional dynamics, as the recent developments indicate. Iran did not play into the hands of Pakistan narrative following the Pahalgam terror attack and Operation Sindoor.

Importantly, it is not just energy and security interests that would be at stake, but also for the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) that will connect India with Europe via West Asia and the Mediterranean. Surely, stability in West Asia is imperative for the sizeable Indian diaspora.

The IMEC plan has been slowed down since the October 2023 crisis, and the current developments may further delay its full implementation. India, given its ties with both Tel Aviv and Tehran, could play a proactive role in defusing tensions. Will it?

(The writer is a commentator on geo-politics and geo-economics. Views are personal)