Israel-Hamas War Ambushes Geopolitics In West Asia

Over half of the estimated 230 or more hostages hold foreign passports, of whom many are dual nationals. The hostages include Americans, Germans, Argentinians, French, Russians and Filipinos. The largest group, numbering 54, are from Thailand. Pressure on Israel to secure their safe release is mounting by the day.

This past weekend witnessed the deadliest attack by Israeli forces in northern Gaza that, according to Palestinian authorities, left 47 people dead at a refugee camp. Twenty-one others were reportedly killed in a separate attack. The twin incidents, which came ahead of an unannounced visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the occupied West Bank on Sunday, renewed calls for a ceasefire. Netanyahu, however, rejected the ceasefire calls, saying there will be “no ceasefire without the return of the hostages”. “This should be completely removed from the lexicon.”

Hamas’ maze of underground concrete tunnels and weapons depots are mostly in northern Gaza, which is why Israelis are bombing this area. The hostages are also reported to be hidden in these tunnels or in basements of various buildings there.

The IDF ground operation aims to decimate Hamas command and control centres, destroy its weapons cache, capture or kill its leaders and rescue the hostages. Israel has claimed several Hamas commanders have been killed. Israel’s attacks have crippled Gaza’s communication network and the United Nations has complained about its inability to communicate with its relief personnel operating there. Around 64 UN employees have been killed. Israel is under international pressure to permit more humanitarian aid to enter Gaza.

Though the UNGA Resolution calling for an “immediate, durable and sustained humanitarian truce" was passed with a majority, it has no legally binding obligation on member nations. It does, however, reflect the growing concern on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza where civilians have fled their homes and taken refuge in camps in southern Gaza. India has also sent humanitarian aid to Gaza via Egypt.

Contesting narratives

Apart from the “hot war”, a media war is also underway where both sides are putting out stories to buttress each side’s viewpoint. Protests in favour of Palestinians have spread across many countries, including India. The UN General Assembly Resolution, calling for a ceasefire and facilitating humanitarian aid into Gaza, was overwhelmingly passed. The UN Security Council is hopelessly divided and any attempt to pass a Resolution has floundered because of the veto power of the US and UK.

In such situations the issue moves to the General Assembly, where all 193 member nations have a vote each. India abstained because an amendment to condemn the Hamas terrorist attack could not muster enough support and was dropped. India’s abstention has triggered a domestic debate and a political slugfest at a time when state elections are on the horizon.

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen rejected calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and described the UNGA Resolution as "despicable". In a post on X, Cohen said Israel “intended to eliminate Hamas just as the world dealt with the Nazis and the Islamic State”.

Hamas knows very well that the hostages are its strongest trump card to constrain Israel. Hamas is also banking on international opinion and the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza to restrain Israel. Pro-Palestinian protest demonstrations in many countries have rocked their capital cities.

Domestic pressure on Netanyahu’s government is increasing steadily to bring back the hostages. Hamas has exploited this by issuing videos of hostages as part of its media war, designed to increase pressure on Israel. The videos show hostages blaming Netanyahu for their plight.

In exchange for releasing Israeli hostages, Hamas has demanded the release of all Palestinians held in Israel's prisons. "The price to pay for the large number of enemy hostages in our hands is to empty the (Israeli) prisons of all Palestinian prisoners," Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades spokesman Abu Obeida was quoted as saying by news media.

Hamas has used hostages earlier to exchange them for Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. Hamas has built several kilometres of concrete tunnels underground to store weapons and keep the hostages. The hostages are not all Israelis. There are other nationalities and that adds to the pressure on Israel from countries whose nationals are among the hostages.

Conflict not of the same kind

This round in the Israel-Hamas conflict is qualitatively different. Earlier rounds would begin with Hamas lobbying rockets into Israel and the latter conducting bombing raids and the situation would return to the status quo within a few weeks. Hamas’ barbarous terrorist attacks on Israeli civilians, including women and children, cannot be justified by any rational argument about Palestinian frustration and desperation. Israel has labelled the Hamas attack on October 7 as its 9/11 moment which justifies Israel’s disproportionate attacks on Gaza.

For Israel, there is the danger of other fronts heating up. Skirmishes along the Lebanon border have taken place but these have been limited to rocket and mortar attacks on Israel and the latter responding with aerial bombardment. Both Hamas and Hezbollah are proxies for Iran which has been threatening Israel and warning of retaliation, if Israel continued with its attacks.

Iran seems to have activated the Houthis in Yemen and there have been Saudi-Houthi skirmishes resulting in casualties. The Houthis have fired missiles into Israel leading Israel to mobilise its naval assets in the Red Sea. Iran has supplied weapons and training to the 3 Hs - Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis. Iran has threatened a violent response to Israel’s attacks on Gaza via its network of militant resistance groups. At American bases in eastern Syria and Western Iraq, military personnel have come under rocket and drone attacks by Iran-backed organisations.

Iran’s high decibel rhetoric against Israel will not translate into entering the war. Iran knows the consequences of such a move. The Iranian ‘Mullahcracy’ may prefer to exercise its power over women who do not want to wear the “hijab”.

Türkiye has also been outspoken in its support for Palestinians. Addressing a huge pro-Palestine rally, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of committing war crimes, referred to Hamas as “freedom fighters” and condemned Israel’s bombardment of Gaza. Angered by Erdogan’s remarks, Israel’s ambassador to the UN called Erdogan a “snake”. Israel’s foreign minister called him an “anti-Semite” and recalled all Israeli diplomats from Türkiye.

India had condemned the October 7 terrorist attacks on Israeli civilians and is unlikely to roll back this condemnation. India has explicitly backed the 2-state solution and reiterated that dialogue must be restored for that. US Secretary of State Blinken has also reiterated a 2-state solution following which Palestinians could live peacefully and with dignity. He has also obliquely criticised Israel for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and called for a pause to allow aid into Gaza.

India has high stakes in the region with extensive ties with Israel and Arab countries. India’s energy security depends on oil supplies at reasonable prices from this region. Hence, for India, a ceasefire and dialogue are prerequisites for a pause before moving towards a durable peace.

What lies ahead

The Israel-Hamas war has certainly churned up the fluid geopolitics of West Asia. So why did Hamas mount the attack on Israel at this time? One objective was to bring back the Palestine issue on the international agenda and prevent its further decline in the global priority list. With American backing, the “Abraham Accords” had normalised relations between Israel and several important Arab countries. This was anathema to Iran and Hamas. Both passionately share the objective of dismantling Israel and creating an Islamic state in Palestine. The Hamas attack and Israel’s retaliation has rocketed the Palestine issue into high visibility globally and put any expansion of the Abraham Accords on hold.

As for Israel, it is pertinent to ask - what is the endgame? It seems Israel is determined to obliterate Hamas in Gaza. Israel may even occupy the northern part of Gaza and remain there till the last vestiges of Hamas are eliminated.

Then what? Israel may be planning to hand over the territory to the Palestinian Authority, the legitimate representative of the Palestinians, under the Oslo Accords. Will this lead to a durable peace? Unlikely, unless the 2-state solution is implemented with sincerity and honesty.

Another idea being floated is to relocate displaced Gaza residents in Egypt’s sparsely populated Sinai Peninsula, accompanied by a hefty financial package. This proposal has been vehemently opposed by Egypt and Jordan. Most of the Gaza Palestinians were uprooted and driven out of Israel in 1948 in the second round of “The Nakba” [Disaster/Catastrophe in Arabic]. This led to thousands of Jews being driven out of Arab countries who settled in Israel.

Israel’s current policies in the West Bank of encouraging Jewish settlements and grabbing Palestinian land has to stop and be reversed, just as Israel did in Gaza. Clashes in the West Bank have increased and this is the most inappropriate time for Israel to open another front. Unfortunately, Netanyahu’s right-wing government rejects the 2-state solution and has isolated Palestinians into Cantons with severe restrictions on movement. Netanyahu’s political career is likely to end after the war as many Israelis hold him responsible for the October 7 attack. Without a permanent 2-state solution with recognised borders, durable peace will remain elusive.

(Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a former secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs, served in Israel from 1995-1999 as deputy chief of mission in the Indian Embassy. He has also served in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He is a founding director of DeepStrat, a think tank. Views expressed are personal)