In the process, Pakistan scored a diplomatic coup by hosting the talks and raised its global stakes.

For a country that is ruled by the military for all practical purposes and whose economy is fledgling and has a track record of promoting international terror, being a mediator was a major victory. First, Pakistan was chosen as a messenger, and secondly, Islamabad created history akin to 1971 when it helped the US to reach out to China.

This was the first phase of US-Iran talks in Islamabad, and it concluded with both sides exchanging written texts to confirm agreements. Limited progress was reported on key issues, including possible restrictions on strikes in southern Lebanon and movement on unfreezing Iranian assets. Iran has maintained hard red lines, insisting on a Lebanon ceasefire and broader conditions, while tensions remain high with US mine-clearing operations underway in the Strait of Hormuz and warnings issued to American vessels. Various issues, including the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear rights, have been among the points of contention in the talks, according to Tehran.

Stalled Negotiations

Iran did not come to the meeting vanquished despite claims by US President Donald Trump. Tehran came to the negotiating table from a position of strength, and it would have been unrealistic to expect a deal in a hurry. The US may have been in a hurry with a President staring at a defeat in mid-term, but the Persian civilisation was not in a hurry. Today, it has a major say in the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz through which one-fifth of the global trade passes. The economies of Gulf states have been battered, and it will take months to get back confidence. 

The war may lead to a regional security architecture with the US reducing its military presence in the Gulf and Israel’s ambitions getting dented. Pakistan, which at the beginning of the war floated several excuses to commit any military assets to Saudi Arabia despite the defence pact, played smart. As the talks began in Islamabad in the presence of the Iranian leaders, Pakistani military assets were deployed in Saudi Arabia. Field Marshal Asim Munir showcases his utility to both Tehran and Riyadh. Even as the US Vice President left without an immediate deal, he praised Pakistan’s efforts in organising the meeting for direct talks with Tehran.

For its efforts to help the peace process, Saudi Arabia and Qatar showed generosity towards Pakistan. Saudi Arabia and Qatar will provide Pakistan US$5 billion in financial assistance, enabling Islamabad to avert stress on the country and weak foreign reserves while making external payments by June. The development comes as Islamabad is set to repay a US$3.5 billion debt to the UAE by the end of April. Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves remain under pressure due to rising import costs. But the additional support from the IMF cannot be ruled out.

India's Strategy 

India needs to recalibrate its West Asia strategy and needs to invest as much in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran as in Israel and the UAE. Over the past few years, while India has emerged as a geo-economic player in the Gulf, backed by the launch of India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and trade pacts with the UAE and Oman and talks of an India-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) trade pact, New Delhi has not positioned itself as a geostrategic player despite its centuries-old linkages and goodwill and growing military profile. Even with growing ties with Israel, New Delhi needed to extend public sympathy for Gaza. India’s inaction on this matter has been noticed across the Arab world, including the Gulf states. 

India’s political role in the region is missing, as evident during the recent war. While the focus is justifiably on energy interests and diaspora, equal attention is necessary to the political role, given its ambitions of becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council. While the UAE receives a lot of attention given its convergence of views on several global and regional issues, similar attention is missing towards the region’s biggest player, Saudi Arabia. Riyadh is positioning itself as an investment destination, but Indian businesses are slow in responding, and it is time for the government to pitch in to help them. It is equally important to step up defence engagements with Riyadh beyond port calls and joint exercises. While India cannot perform the job of Pakistan, the growing defence industry in India has the arsenal to meet the requirements of Riyadh, which has not been bruised in Iranian retaliation, unlike the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. 

Simultaneously, Oman, which has been the least impacted in Iran’s retaliatory strikes, requires additional attention given the conclusion of the trade pact last December and traditional defence partnership. Oman, as a quintessential neutral state and with presence along the Strait of Hormuz, will have a bigger say in the management of the waterway. Equally important is to enhance strategic partnership with Egypt, given its history, weight in the Arab world, geography and a powerful military.

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics and geoeconomics. Views expressed are personal.)