Iran Unrest: Escalating Tensions Could Upend Regional Dynamics

A direct US-Iran conflict will have an impact on maritime connectivity in the Persian Gulf, as well as on crude energy prices.

The "maximum pressure tactics" have not been successful against the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as Iran continues to build on the "Bazari strategy". But the regime must realise that it must address the woes of the population and find measures to make Iran more mainstream.

Impact On India 

While Ayatollah has occasionally raised the Kashmir issue to India’s discomfort, Tehran has largely been supportive of New Delhi’s ambitions in the extended neighbourhood, helping in balancing Pakistan.

This includes India’s expanded role in Iran’s Chabahar port, including a pact for an Indian entity to run it for 10 years. Last year, India secured a six-month sanctions waiver from Washington for the Chabahar port gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia. 

The significance of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which connects India with Russia via Iran, cannot be overlooked. India has also put in place a trilateral dialogue with Iran and Armenia, besides another with Uzbekistan. The India-Iran-Afghanistan trilateral dialogue has also been pushing trade links through the Chabahar Port.

Iran As Counterweight

Succeeding governments in New Delhi have considered a stable Iran as "a counterweight" to Pakistan to address the anti-India agenda and curb cross-border attacks.

The Shia-dominated Iran bordering Pakistan is the perfect counterbalance to Islamabad’s interests in the region. This includes restricting connectivity to Afghanistan and Central Asia. It may be recalled that in the mid-1990s, Tehran came to India’s rescue, preventing a move that could have led the UN to sanction India on the Kashmir issue.

A UN move to condemn India over Kashmir — pushed by Pakistan — threatened sanctions and global isolation. In 1994, the then Indian Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao felt Iran could provide a lifeline to India. He deputed Dinesh Singh, the then External Affairs Minister, to deliver a message to Iran.

An ailing Singh flew down to Tehran on a special military jet. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati received Singh on the tarmac himself. Singh, who was in a wheelchair, handed over a personal message from Rao to the then-Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Singh met Rafsanjani, Velayati, and Iranian Speaker Nateq-Nouri, and returned to New Delhi the same night.

Subsequently, Iran refused to back a Pakistan-sponsored resolution in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which was planning to thrash it out with the backing of a few Western nations at the UN Human Rights Commission, in a bid to condemn India while seeking sanctions for alleged human rights violations in Jammu and Kashmir.

Last year, hours after the US had attacked three nuclear sites in Iran, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian dialled Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who expressed deep concern over the escalation of the conflict. 

Iran Nuclear Site Attack

Later, at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) summit, India had expressed concern over attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites. Iran, on its part, has been nudging India to resume oil trade in the national currencies. The Modi government also played a key role in supporting Iran secure BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) memberships.

The rising oil prices will also impact India amid the US threat to impose additional tariffs on New Delhi for continuing to purchase Russian oil.

Any conflict would disturb the future of the Indian diaspora and the country’s economy. 

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics. Views are personal.)