Indian Cities Facing Severe Heat. Things Will Get Worse

A fruit vendor in Delhi's Najafgarh has two sets of bananas on hand: One for when the sun rises, the other for when the sun sets. Because the asphalt in Najafgarh gets scorching and ripens bananas too quickly by the middle of the day.

Air conditioner sales have exploded in Chennai, yet in the Perambur slums, families sleep on rooftops or outdoors in the stagnant night, hoping for a stray whiff of breeze. 

The heat is consistently exceeding people's comfort levels; it is also tweaking their eating habits, sleeping habits, and urban mobility patterns across India. Opportunity, productivity, and even life are being extinguished as a result.

This past summer, Delhi's scorching temperatures regularly reached nearly 50°C. Many of the hundreds of individuals who live in slums without air conditioning, healthcare, or a way out, were effectively sentenced to death by this intolerable statistic. 

There was no respite from the monsoons. As high tides exacerbated the damage, the streets of Mumbai once again became rivers, and inhabitants were forced to wade through floodwaters mingled with sewage. Bengaluru, previously dubbed India's "Garden City", has been in a constant state of crisis due to its unstable climate, rapid development, and lakes that have vanished.

All of this is old news. The same incidents happen every year: First covered with great speed, then fading into the background, as metropolitan India adjusts to natural calamities. Still, ignorance is a lethal weapon.

As the UN-Habitat World Cities Report 2024 states, what we are now experiencing is only the beginning. Our political debate mostly ignores the fact that the greatest fatal climate threat nowadays is excessive heat.

Extreme heat might cause annual GDP losses of up to 5 per cent in key South Asian cities due to rising healthcare costs and lost work hours by the year 2025. Still, legislators view heat waves more as a nuisance than a calamity, and the issue goes unresolved.

Summertime misery is only part of the story. This is the tale of how heat is deliberately reshaping cities, causing the impoverished to live in shacks with tin roofs, labourers working in the sun to have lower wages and work shorter hours, and public institutions like schools and hospitals to have trouble operating. An unforgiving sun is the protagonist in this drama about the transformation of city life.

The study warns that India's already vulnerable urban areas are on the brink of a catastrophic climate disaster. A further half-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures is projected to affect more than two billion city dwellers by the year 2040. 

However, for already-stricken areas like Delhi, this disparity will result in thousands of additional fatalities, severe water scarcity, and economic uncertainty. Cities risk becoming uninhabitable in the near future, unless they begin to invest in resilience measures immediately.

Why Are Indian Urban Areas Susceptible To Attack?

Unplanned, unequal, and short-sighted urbanisation is at the root of the problem, not just climate change. Urban planning has neglected to incorporate climate resilience into the ever-increasing expansion of cities. The results are plain to see.

A Lancet study estimated that more than 3,30,000 persons died in India from exposure to particulate matter — tiny particles that can clog lungs — from the burning of fossil fuel in 2021. As urban areas keep getting hotter, this figure will go up. 

According to Dr Chandni Singh, lead author of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, "The real crisis is that urban heat is not just about climate — it's about class." She adds, "Millions in informal settlements endure the full force of increasing temperatures without any safety net, while wealthier residents have AC escape routes."

Coastal towns are going under. Coastal floods will threaten more than 2.5 billion people by the year 2050. Rising sea levels endanger nearly 35 per cent of Mumbai's land area and a quarter of its population, according to data from Climate Central. This especially leaves Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai in a precarious condition. Things have become even more dire due to the wild real estate explosion in flood-prone parts of these cities.

Although urbanisation has caused more than 60 per cent of India's precipitation to vanish into run-offs, the frequency of torrential downpours has increased. Professor T V Ramachandra of Indian Institute of Science claims that the loss of our lakes, wetlands, and recharge zones has resulted in twin crises — monsoon flooding and summer drought.

Less and less flora exists. Research from the Centre for Science and Environment shows that a 15 per cent decline in Delhi's plant cover from 2000 to 2020 worsened both air pollution and the urban heat island effect. This is in keeping with a global trend, according to the World Cities Report 2024: The proportion of metropolitan areas with green areas dropped from 20 per cent in 1990, to 14 per cent now.

Why Aren't We Acting?

Adapting to climate change presents challenging political and financial as well as other degrees of complexity. Sadly, despite the dire need for investment in climate resilience, the necessary funds are not readily available.

Cities all throughout the world must invest between US$ 4.5 and US$ 5.4 trillion a year if they are to become more climate resilient. Nevertheless, so far only US$ 831 billion has been budgeted, which is less than 20 per cent of the whole.

India's disorganised urban governance and insufficient municipal budgets make it difficult enough for the country to raise money for basic services without considering how to adjust to climate change. According to Aromar Revi, Director of the Indian Institute for Human Settlements, most Indian cities lack institutional power and financial independence necessary to lead climate action. 

In fact, urban planning in India doesn't even incorporate climate action. Plans, when they exist, frequently operate independently. Even though the Climate Action Plan in Mumbai recognises the concerns of rising sea levels, the city continues to approve large infrastructure projects in flood-prone locations. Although Delhi has a Heat Action Plan, cooling solutions have not been adequately incorporated into housing policies.

Policy discourses disregard informal settlements: Any climate plan that fails to prioritise these populations would inevitably fail, as roughly 35 per cent of India’s urban population lives in informal housing.

"We need to reimagine climate action as an issue of urban justice," says Harini Nagendra, a specialist in urban sustainability and ecology. "Infrastructure, cooling, and flood protection receive the least attention when low-income settlements are the hardest hit by severe weather."

What Steps Can Indian Cities Take?

Cities in India need to pay attention to the following recommendations from the World Cities Report 2024.

Planning for cities with a focus on climate resilience: Legally enforceable climate risk assessments should be a part of city master plans. Building in areas prone to flooding is now prohibited. Natural solutions, such as repairing urban forests, restoring wetlands, and safeguarding bodies of water, should be considered essential infrastructure rather than supplementary features.

Massive expenditures on infrastructure: Shaded roadways, green corridors, and bodies of water are examples of heat-resilient public areas that can lower city temperatures by 2 to 4 degrees Celsius. The government should prioritise the renovation of informal settlements by building climate-adaptive housing with improved insulation, natural ventilation, and community cooling centres.

More efficient use of water and heat: Increasing the capacity of rainwater collection systems and groundwater recharge infrastructure to lessen reliance on depleting water supplies. Building urban drainage systems that can withstand floods, rather than depending on costly, ad hoc flood relief solutions.

Massive climate financing: In order to adapt to the changing climate, cities should issue green municipal bonds and use international climate money. Through governmental backing and tax incentives, the private sector should be encouraged to finance urban infrastructure that is favourable to the climate.

What Will Happen In 5, 10 or 15 Years?

India's urban centres will make a decision in the next five years. They are free to keep going in the same direction, which will see the urban poor bear the brunt of the repercussions of climate change while the rich avoid the worst of it.

On the other hand, they can begin to put money into adaptation by making sure that all citizens are fairly protected, implementing climate-conscious urban planning, and funding robust infrastructure.

Acting today could position Indian cities as pioneers in urban climate adaptation in the next decade. Urban areas could be made habitable once again by reviving green spaces, making homes more heat resistant, and enhancing water resilience.

But what if we don't? Death tolls in the thousands could result from heatwaves. Megafloods might wash away millions of people. Anticipate cities coming to a complete stop due to water shortages.

Not content to just forewarn, the World Cities Report 2024 provides a road plan. Will India really do what it says?