China's Expanding 'Mighty Dragon' J-20 Fleet And The Strategic Case For India

J-20 is an advanced fifth-generation stealth fighter jet operated by China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). The PLAAF wants to beat the US, which has 185 F-22s and 900-1,000 F-35s, in the number of fifth-generation fighters by producing 100 J-20s annually.

For India, the stakes are higher: Though the J-20’s primary aim is to counter the F-22 and F-25, especially in the Indo-Pacific, China would use it in a conflict with India.

China's Edge And India's Concerns

Not only does India lack a fifth-generation fighter, but its Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is years away. The Ministry of Defence issued a request for proposals to the private sector as late as May this year. 

The prototype is expected in 2027-28, the maiden flight in 2029, and production in 2033-35. 

By that time, China will start producing its two sixth-generation fighters: the J-36 (long-range air-superiority and deep-strike missions) and J-50 (carrier-based air dominance and tactical interception). The J-36’s fifth prototype, with improved design, was seen this month.

Moreover, considering the current annual production rate of 100, the PLAAF will have 700 more J-20s by 2033. A total of 1,200 Mighty Dragons would be more than double the entire Indian Air Force (IAF) fleet, which has only 29 squadrons as against the 42 sanctioned. 

The bigger concern for India is where the J-20 has been deployed and its air superiority.

J-20’s Advanced Features

The J-20’s technological superiority is equally concerning.

The J-20 (which has a more advanced variant – the J-20A – and a twin-seater variant, the J-20S) has a 5,000-km operational range, a 2,000-km combat range, and Mach 2 speed.

The KLJ-5A active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar has 1,856 transmit/receive (T/R) modules, more than the F-35’s APG-81, and almost rivalling the F-22’s APG-77.

The J-20’s sophisticated sensor fusion, radar integration, infrared search-and-track system (IRST), electro-optical targeting, and missile approach warning sensors detect and track targets without emitting signals. Therefore, the aircraft is a stealthily command post coordinating with drones and fourth-generation fighters — J-10C, J-11, J-15, and J-16 — in a networked battlespace.

The J-20’s stealth reduces its frontal radar cross-section to about 0.027-0.05 sq.m., only slightly higher than the F-22’s 0.0001 and F-35’s 0.0015.

The diverterless (no splitter plate) supersonic inlets increase stealth by shielding the spinning engine blades from radar and reducing the overall radar-reflecting angles on the J-20’s body. The serrated exhaust nozzles and sawtooth panel edges disperse radar waves and reduce infrared signature.

The J-20’s base variant used the Russian Saturn AL-31F engines, later replaced with the indigenous WS-10Cs. The advanced variants, J-20A and J-20S, used the superior WS-15 engines. 

In payload capacity (11,000 kg), the J-20 beats both the F-22 (8,200 kg) and F-35 (8,165 kg).

The J-20 can carry 14 missiles in its three internal weapon bays and four external hardpoints with dual-rail adapters (two missiles on each hardpoint).

Low-Frequency Radar: Advantages & Drawbacks

Stealth doesn’t make the aircraft invisible; the right term is “low observability”. 

On a high-frequency radar, for example, the F-22 appears as a marble, the F-35 as a golf ball, and the J-20 as a baseball. 

Stealth fighters deflect high-frequency radar waves, X-band, C-band, or Ku-band used by missile guidance and fire-control systems. The flat, angled panels bounce radio signals away.

However, low-frequency radars use very high frequency (VHF) or ultra-high frequency bands, whose long waves match the stealth jet’s size and bypass the sharp edges.

But a low-frequency radar’s biggest drawback is that it can’t guide a missile to the target.

IRST systems can also detect a stealth jet by detecting its heat signature at long ranges without emitting signals or radio waves. 

That’s how the Iranian Majid (AD-08) short-range (8 km) low-altitude air defence system damaged an F-35A on March 19. However, IRST systems can target a stealth jet only at short ranges and low altitudes.

What India Can Do

India has few options to counter the J-20, but they are not foolproof.

Firstly, India should immediately sign a deal with Russia to purchase its fifth-generation Su-57’s twin-seater variant. However, it will take years, as Russia flew the prototype in May.  

Secondly, the Su-30MKI, Rafale, and MiG-29UPG/MiG-29K have passive IRST radar/systems, but the IAF lacks a very long-range BVRAAM with dual guidance (radar guidance for the initial and midcourse phases and an infrared seeker for the terminal phase).

The IRST system is used only for short-range missiles because infrared energy degrades with distance.

The indigenous Astra series of missiles — MK-1 (110 km), MK-2 (not inducted, 160 km) and Mk-3 (under development, 350 km) — lacks the range to strike the J-20, even with dual guidance, if it launches the PL-17/21. Only the planned Astra IR has an imaging infrared homing seeker, but its range is only 80 km. 

Of the imported AAMs, the R-73 (40 km), R-27 (40-130 km depending on the variant), MICA IR (60-80 km), and AIM-132 ASRAAM (25 km) use infrared homing. However, to assume that the J-20 will be within the striking distance of these missiles is illogical.

Therefore, India needs to quickly manufacture BVRAAMs with ultra-long ranges and dual guidance to take on the J-20. 

India has also recently integrated the Russian Nebo-UM VHF radar, which can detect stealth jets at 250 km, with the S-400, but again it can’t directly guide a missile to a precise hit.  

India’s Phalcon AWACS, with its EL/W-2090 radar, can detect stealth aircraft but only at a range of around 200 km. 

Low Observability Of Fifth-Generation Fighter Jets

It’s extremely difficult to shoot down a fifth-generation fighter.

Only one stealth combat aircraft has been shot down in aviation history — the F-117 Nighthawk on March 27, 1999, during the NATO bombing of erstwhile Yugoslavia. 

The F-117 could be targeted only because it had predictable flight routes and the pilot exposed one of its two weapon bays to drop his ordnance, compromising the jet’s stealth and increasing its radar footprint.

However, weapons bays of fifth-generation fighters have jagged, sawtooth edges that scatter radar waves and open only for a fraction of a second. The J-20 has a unique mechanism that allows the bay door to close immediately with the missile rail extending outside.

Without a fifth-generation aircraft, the IAF has limited means to counter China’s most superior stealth fighter. 

(The writer is a columnist with more than two decades of experience in journalism. Views are personal.)