The Secretariat assesses India's rainfall patterns by looking at critical data points and stressors impacting water availability. Beyond El Niño and La Niña, there are other factors at play that leave the country at the mercy of the rain gods. 

Speaking at a recent workshop in Mumbai, former water resources secretary Shashi Shekhar said water and related issues have to make their way into the political discourse and feature in election manifestos. Why? Because India, which has 16 per cent of the world's population, has just four per cent of the world's freshwater resources. Political will is a must to get over these challenges. 

India's water crisis is due to climate change-induced erratic rainfall and unsustainable groundwater extraction among other factors. Mumbai faces escalating water demand and unpredictable rainfall, leading to water cuts by the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation due to depleted lake stocks. 

Despite significant annual rainfall, Chennai faces severe water scarcity with the city exhausting its water supply in 2019. These challenges highlight the urgent need for holistic water management strategies to address the crisis across urban and rural landscapes.

Despite More Overall Rainfall, Water Crisis Persists

India's agriculture and food security have long been tied to a good monsoon. The problem is not just inadequate rainfall; it's the timing and predictability that disrupt the ecosystem. Excessive rainfall in short durations ends up harming agriculture. In this context, water stress refers to the lack of volume and timely availability of water.

A study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), a policy research institute and think tank based in Delhi, found that from 1982 to 2022, 87 per cent of tehsils across the country experienced decreased Southwest Monsoon rainfall in June and July, which are crucial months for Kharif crop sowing, while 48 per cent of tehsils witnessed a rise in October rainfall by over 10 per cent, potentially due to delayed Southwest Monsoon withdrawal, impacting rabi crop sowing. 

Despite an overall increase in rainfall by 10 per cent, agricultural produce in India hit a five-year low, Al Jazeera reported. The erratic rainfall patterns with initial monsoon months experiencing a 9 per cent deficit, followed by above-average rains in post-monsoon months, end up disrupting the crop cycle and worsen the crisis.

To paraphrase Coleridge, this is a case of water, water everywhere but not a drop when needed or when it can be put to better use. 

Chennai gets substantial annual rainfall of around 1,400mm but the city still faced a severe water crisis in 2019, becoming one of the first major cities globally to exhaust its water supply. 

The city then transported 10 million litres of water daily to meet the needs of residents. Though recent years have seen significant rainfall, the Tamil Nadu capital remains vulnerable to extreme weather events due to rapid industrialisation and urbanisation.

Untimely Rains Hurt Food Security

Recent Indian Meteorological Department data highlights concerning trends in rainfall distribution across India. In 2023, approximately 14 per cent of districts received no rainfall, while 17 per cent experienced a significant deficit. Conversely, around 13 per cent faced some deficit, while an astonishing 31 per cent had excessively heavy rains, leading to crop cycle disruption and severe flooding during non-monsoon months. 

The erratic patterns emphasise the challenges posed by unpredictable weather phenomena and their adverse effects on agriculture and regional ecosystems.

Further, increased rainfall is not being stored due to extensive encroachment in catchment areas and disruption of natural hydrology due to large-scale projects. 

Also Read: 85% Of Rural India Survives On Groundwater, And It's Running Out

These factors end up aggravating water scarcity. The imbalance and the unpredictability of rains result in one of the biggest threats a densely populous country could face: Food Security. 

“Groundwater irrigation, which has been our main way of adapting to rainfall variability, will not remain an option in many parts of India, particularly where groundwater overuse is already a problem,” said Aditi Mukherji, director of the Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Impact Action Platform at CGIAR, an independent organisation dedicated to combating climate change by implementing strategies for both adaptation and mitigation. 

These issues not only affect rural economies but deeply impact the availability of food and resources necessary for sustaining large urban centres. 

Also in other ways, the impact of rainfall extends beyond rural areas and agricultural economies, as evidenced by the recent crises in Chennai and Bengaluru. Despite receiving what might be considered "adequate rainfall", these cities struggle to manage water effectively, leading to shortages and pollution. 

Urban growth intensifies this issue, as increased demand for water coincides with diminishing surfaces for groundwater recharge. The interplay of urbanisation and water management highlights the need for effective strategies to address water scarcity in rapidly growing urban areas.

How To Move Away From The Precipice

Climate change action plans are important to address water scarcity due to their role in mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources. This would safeguard agricultural productivity, enhance water security for urban and rural communities, promote adaptation and resilience building, and fulfil international commitments such as the Paris Agreement. 

Understanding the shifting rainfall patterns is crucial, but so is equitable resource distribution between urban and rural areas. Additionally, addressing legal frameworks and urban design is critical.

With changing rainfall patterns and rising temperatures adding to water stress, these action plans are essential for implementing adaptive measures, investing in resilient infrastructure, and promoting water conservation practices to ensure sustainable water management. It should be made mandatory for all city and regional plans to have a section that specifically addresses water holistically.