India's US Challenge: Time For Tough Policy

It is not even the post-Pokhran 1998 moment but a reflection of the 1971 phase when India got cornered by the White House to such an extent that the biggest pillar of partnership – people to people ties looked strained. 

The beginning of Donald Trump 2.0 regime brought hope that ties between India and US would further take new wings but things have only gone southward. 

Many political pundits thought that the India-US relations would be on the mend and that the worst was over after President Donald Trump described India as a close partner and even sent a warm birthday message to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A US trade delegation too visited India.

But within just a few days, things have again gone awry.

The decisions on withdrawing sanctions waiver from the Chabahar Port and increasing the H1-B visa fees have made a further dent. But this has led to raising a serious question: Can the US be a reliable partner? What will be the scope of the strategic partnership? 

These announcements have shaken the very foundation of the India-US ties and has put pressure on the Modi government to rechart policy-framing. 

Conspiracy theories apart, the move may be intended to weaken the Modi government. Under such circumstances, a reality check on initiatives like QUAD is imperative. India has the capacity to safeguard the Indian Ocean Region.   

It appears that the twin measures, announced almost back-to-back last week, will be used by the Trump administration as a pressure tactic to conclude a trade deal by extracting concessions from India. 

Interestingly, the announcements were made just before Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal landed in the US.

There is little doubt that the twin measures were intended to arm-twist India into accepting many of the US demands on the trade deal.    

Chabahar Port And Its Importance

The significance of Chabahar Port for India cannot be explained through mere statements. The Chabahar Port was India’s maiden acquisition of a port abroad and despite US pressure in the past, New Delhi remained determined to protect its interests and went on with the project. 

Successive Indian governments have weathered several storms including strong reservations from Pakistan and China to hold on to Chabahar port. 

In 2024 India and Iran signed a 10-year pact, which among other things granted management rights to New Delhi. As per the pact, India will have management rights for 10 years. 

It is a misnomer that the Port was contributing to the finances of the Iranian military. Chabahar Port’s significance does not lie in its capacity to generate revenues. It lies in its strategic location that provides India access to Afghanistan, Central Asia and Russia and further up into Europe. 

It provides Afghanistan, Central Asia and Russia access to the Indian Ocean Region and beyond. 

It gives India a foothold closer to Gwadar Port – the entry point for the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). 

While there is no evidence to show that Pakistan had a role to play in influencing the Trump administration’s decision on the Chabahar port, it can be safely concluded that Islamabad lobbied hard with Washington to reverse the sanction waiver on the port, a move that will adversely impact India’s outreach to the region. 

India’s limited role in Iran works to Pakistan’s advantage. 

Since Trump took charge, the Pakistan military establishment has been nimble footed in opening channels of communication with Washington, luring it through crypto deals, promises of critical minerals and a base against Iran. 

In return the Pakistan military has sought support from the US to neutralise Baloch Liberation Army and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). 

The Trump administration, in its singular agenda to weaken Iran, may concede to Pakistan’s demands. 

Now, this should serve as a wake-up call for Tehran and may call for closer ties with India. 

Deepening ties with India is imperative for Iran to counterbalance Pakistan where radicals have spared no efforts to target Shias.

H1-B Visa Fee Hike

The decision on Chabahar port was not all. It was nimbly followed up with the announcement on hiking H1-B visa fees – impacting the very foundation of India-US ties. 

While the White House later clarified that the decision is intended only for fresh H1-B applicants, it was enough to dampen sentiments and served as a wake up call for Indian policy makers. 

People-to-people ties have been the edifice of India-US strategic partnership that grew and matured over two and half decades. 

Interestingly, it was in front of the huge Indian diaspora that cheered Modi and Trump while walking together for an address during the latter’s earlier regime.

Importantly neither Trump nor his team considered the fact that H1-B visas have not just helped the Indian middle-class but also contributed significantly to the US economy. 

The MAGA (Make America Great Again) crowd driven by the zeal of ultra-nationalism and protectionism wants to create an America with dominance of the whites, while pushing immigrants who until now formed an equally important fabric of the country into a corner. 

The biggest lesson that India should draw from Trump’s flip flop policies in the last six months is this – New Delhi should not put all eggs into one basket. 

Despite a multipolar approach, India has always taken comfort in its ties with the US. Trump policies have come as a rude shock – and needless to say that Indians were not prepared. In fact many believed that the Trump administration will be beneficial for India. Some even thought it would be better than the Biden administration which was allegedly interfering in India’s domestic politics. 

While India with its economic might will be able to work out an ecosystem to absorb talent, especially those returning from the US and create a right environment for research, innovation and services, it is a message for New Delhi that it cannot depend on a handful of powers to steer through. 

India’s mantra – strategic autonomy needs to be reinforced. Trump’s moves have made this even more relevant.

The Modi government has the advantage and leverage and it would be appropriate to use that to deal with the US – on equal terms and if need be, act tough as and when needed. 

Only a pushback may force the Trump administration to realise that the era of feudalism is over.   

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics and geo-economics. Views are personal)