India's Neighbourhood Conundrum: Nepal Crisis A Wake Up Call For New Delhi

However, to graduate from being an emerging power to a “great power”, any country with India’s size and stature not only needs to have a stable neighbourhood but also a periphery that allows it to expand its security and economic interests.

Ability To Anticipate Crisis

While non-interference in internal affairs of a sovereign state is never preferred, ability to anticipate revolutions like in Bangladesh and Nepal and adopt pre-emptive measures to secure own interests should be a hallmark of Indian diplomacy, which has fought many challenges across continents to produce results over decades including in the recent years.

Bangladesh’s ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was India’s most trusted ally in South Asia after Bhutan. India was certainly not prepared for her exit despite signals.

Hasina as PM of Bangladesh visited India twice in 2024 before being deposed. Interestingly, before her China visit, she even chose to come to New Delhi, something that was taken as a significant message.

Yet India was not fully equipped to either pre-empt the crisis or handle the post-crisis situation. It was not just Awami League but India was at the target of the protestors in Dhaka that once welcomed Indian troops who played a role in the country’s Freedom struggle 1971.

India was a rare victorious power whose troops left the newly independent country instead of staying put and creating a military base.

More recently Prime Minister Narendra Modi led from the front in providing support to enable Bangladesh dream to be an Asian tiger. But as Sheikh Hasina grew unpopular despite her delivery, India’s nimble footed approach on the ground was missing, paving the way for the anti-India constituency to call the shots.

The South Asian country is now going through a turbulent phase with radicalists now dreaming of coming to power in the 2026 parliamentary elections.

The Indian state can ill-afford to have a force with links to Muslim Brotherhood to run Bangladesh. The silver lining has been that cross-border energy and energy projects initiated by India have not yet been touched by the non-state actors and the anti-India constituency.

Yet, India needs to be on guard and take steps to uphold its strategic and economic interests.

A progressive Bangladesh is not just in India’s interests but also in the interests of the region.

Unprepared for Nepal Crisis 

Before India could absorb the shock from the exit of Hasina, it is now the streets of Kathmandu that are burning.

Yet another revolution led by the Gen-Z. It unseated the KP Sharma Oli government and brought about a regime change.

Fortunately, unlike in the past, anti-India sloganeering was not heard or visible. The entire ire was against the old guard and its corruption.

The country remained poor and backward with diaspora remittances as the primary source of revenue. The old guard from across parties including the Maoists were focused on building mansions and pocketing benefits from China.

However, quietly a revolution was in the making led by concerned citizens and most importantly the youth who felt cheated and let down by politicians who once promised them prosperity and wealth.

Notwithstanding the Jan Andolan and abolishment of monarchy Nepal has remained on the periphery by all yardsticks.

India’s push led to revenues from the power sector over the last three years but it was nowhere close to Bhutan. Chinese assistance in the Himalayan country has been increasing. Beijing is seeking to create conditions for its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.

India and Nepal on the other hand have an open border. The two countries are tied culturally and through civilisations. New Delhi has always given priority to people to people contacts.

While the deposed PM was no friend of India -- having created an anti-India rhetoric, New Delhi was neither prepared for the street revolution nor the post-crisis political structure.

Nonetheless, New Delhi has been rather mature in handling the situation, it sent a congratulatory message to the new interim government headed by Sushila Karki, a former chief justice of the country’s Supreme Court and a student of Banaras Hindu University.

The real challenge for Indian diplomacy begins now as the situation demands that New Delhi handholds the regime in Kathmandu only if the Himalayan nation seeks assistance.

One of the starting points could be guidance to revive tourism in Nepal, create conditions for micro small and medium enterprises, widening connectivity networks and working with the interim government to harness the full potential of the hydel power resources.

Incumbents in both Bangladesh and Nepal succumbed to street protests and yet both situations are unique. Painting the two with the same brush will not be fair.

Repeat Of Sri Lanka Success Story?

In 2022, following the Covid pandemic, Sri Lanka, which was once South Asia’s success story, faced a similar situation. Revolution paved the way for a mainstream politician. Indian diplomacy triumphed and New Delhi handheld Colombo through aid and other assistance, the most critical requirements of the day. 

Once the militant Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) but a mainstream force was elected to power, it has established cordial ties with India.

It needed deft handling and correct understanding of the ground situation that led to the new President making India his first foreign destination in December 2024. Maldives too realised that its economy is better served with India’s assistance.

Wake-up Call For India 

The role of external powers in the revolution in Bangladesh was evident. Nepal may also have had external powers fishing in troubled waters. Regimes were uprooted in days.

This should be a wake-up call for India which first needs to secure its immediate and extended neighbourhood to achieve a great power status. PM Modi had sought to integrate South Asian economies with the Indian economy – something that will push the region as a self reliant bloc.

Simultaneously, Indian diplomacy on the ground needs to respond to local situations and prepare appropriate solutions. It would not be prudent to think that China will not extend its reach to India’s periphery. 

New Delhi on its part needs to innovate to address challenges by charting long term solutions, a strong people to people network is always a winning idea. Along with that India must focus on projects that benefit the local communities. 

(The writer is a commentator on geopolitics and geo-economics. Views are personal)