India’s Census: An Exercise With High-Stakes Policy & Political Implications

The last census took place in 2011, before the rise of smartphones, Aadhaar identities, and growing urban migration. Since then, India has undergone major demographic, technological, and political shifts.

Now expected in February 2027, this will be the country’s first census in 16 years, the longest gap since Independence. The Household Listing phase is likely to begin by March-April 2026, according to government timelines.

A tender document describes the census as “the most credible source of information” on everything, from housing and literacy to migration and mortality.

Yet, the delay has raised concerns about how out-of-date information may have already skewed decisions and how politicised the exercise could become.

“In a country like India, where most people-focused policies are implemented by the states, we need to know not just how many people there are, but where they are,” economist and former Chief Statistician of India, Pronab Sen told The Secretariat. “That’s what the census tells us,” he said.  

Conducting the next census presents an opportunity to reset policymaking with reliable data. But what exactly gets measured and how will be just as critical.

Not Just a Headcount

From welfare schemes to urban planning, policy needs better data. The Indian state runs one of the world’s largest welfare systems, but many of its assumptions are now built on outdated data.

For instance, the 2011 figures still inform decisions on school locations, urban housing, food grain distribution, and electoral boundaries.

“The further you move away from the last census, the population estimates become less reliable. Samples drawn from these estimates start becoming unrepresentative, and that risks skewing all kinds of policymaking,” said Sen.

Without updated information, policymakers may be misallocating funds, over-serving areas with shrinking populations, and under-serving rapidly growing urban settlements.

Lack of up-to-date migration data makes it difficult to design inclusive schemes for the urban poor, particularly those living in informal housing or working in precarious jobs.

The pandemic exposed just how invisible many internal migrants were to official databases. A new census could help correct these blind spots. “For most centrally sponsored schemes, population is a central variable in the allocation formula. The absence of new census data would have affected how welfare funds were distributed," said Sen.

When asked if there was any way of knowing what was going wrong, he said that figuring out where the under-serving happened would be a tedious, scheme-by-scheme exercise. 

Apolitical Or Political Document?

Beyond its technical value, the census is a deeply political exercise. It determines not just resource allocation, but representation.

This will be the first time since Independence that caste will be officially enumerated in the census. While the Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC) of 2011 attempted to collect such data, it was said to be riddled with inconsistencies and never formally released in full.

Including caste within the formal census framework gives the data greater legitimacy, but also adds operational complexity.

“Caste enumeration takes time,” said Sen. “You have to present the person with a list of castes and then allow the person to choose. That makes every interview longer and means each enumerator will be able to cover fewer people.”

The political implications extend beyond resource allocation. The 2027 census is also expected to inform the long-delayed delimitation of parliamentary constituencies, a move that could reshape representation in Parliament.

Southern states have expressed concern that their success in controlling population growth may lead to reduced political influence.

“This is not the first time this issue has come up,” Sen told The Secretariat. “We’re still working with the delimitation based on the 1971 census. For 50 years, we haven’t changed it, precisely because of that specific problem,” he said.

As for a way forward, Sen suggests that the number of seats in Parliament need not be altered immediately, but constituency boundaries could be redrawn to reflect population changes.

The Method Matters

Even as attention focuses on when the census will happen, experts point to another crucial factor: How it will be conducted. Will digital tools improve reach and accuracy, or widen gaps for those without access?

Will enumerators be trained to account for newer forms of technology, households, and employment, or will the technology and survey categories skew the collection? 

“If enumerators are allowed to use their own phones, data quality could be compromised,” Sen speculated. “With dedicated devices, once data is uploaded, it cannot be tampered with. That’s not the case with personal phones,” he thinks. 

“In 2011, we trained about 2.2 million people. This time, it’s expected to be over 3.1 million. That’s a 30 per cent increase. Training them well will be the real challenge,” he added.

The census is not just a statistical ritual. It is a mirror of the nation, flawed or clear, depending on its design.

With India standing at a demographic crossroads, the coming census could help reimagine public policy for the next decade. But that will require political will, transparency, and a recognition that counting is, at its core, about who counts and how.