India Needs To Shift Its Foreign Policy Gear To Address Growing Pakistan Challenge

Pakistan Field Marshall Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah has been lucky. 

The Trump administration 2.0 has opened a Pandora’s Box for Islamabad. The country indeed batted on the front foot and sought to fit the bill that has been laid by US President Donald Trump. 

For a US leader who believes in flattery, he found a “friend” in Pakistan and laid out the red carpet. In return, Islamabad naturally expects support to bridge asymmetry against India. 

Moves Towards Pakistan

But it is not just the US that is now moving towards reviving the Cold War-era ties with Pakistan. Riyadh, too, has found utility in Pakistan. After signing the defence pact, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have agreed to an economic framework and support, which will be a much-needed lifeline to the South Asian economy. The defence pact is unlikely to work against India, but the Pakistani Generals have not left any stone unturned in showcasing it as a big victory. The economic support is critical to keep the Pakistani economy afloat. 

The Saudi-Pakistan framework has plans for joint ventures in a slew of areas, including energy, industry, mining, information technology, tourism, agriculture, and food security.

The “pious” Generals in Pakistan realised that it is imperative to recultivate Saudi Arabia, which has widened its ties with India across sectors and is building a modern nation state, which is not just guided by religion. 

While India-Saudi ties under Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman have strengthened, and the two will continue to deepen economic engagement, Riyadh has also found virtue in Islamabad.

Diplomatic Outreach 

Pakistan simultaneously has been able to position itself as a key player in West Asia’s biggest crisis in Gaza by participating in the Israel-Hamas peace plan, drawing appreciation from Trump. The Pakistani PM made several trips to the region and positioned himself as a stakeholder to address the crisis. This has also given Islamabad an opportunity to cultivate other powers in the Arab World that were warming up to India in the last decade, seeking to build stronger economic and security partnerships. 

But it is not Pakistan’s active diplomatic outreach alone that brought Islamabad back in contention. Countries have also taken the lead from the Trump administration to re-examine their ties with Islamabad and explore opportunities at least in the short term. 

Pakistani diplomats can take satisfaction from the fact that their current Generals, blindly backed by the country’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and his team, have been able to keep both the US and China in good humour. 

Islamabad is mindful of not breaching Beijing’s red line. After all, China is Pakistan’s iron brother.      

Pakistani troops could be part of the stabilisation force in Gaza, enabling Islamabad to establish formal contacts with Israel. Tel Aviv may not be enthusiastic at this stage to transform this contact into a diplomatic arrangement, but the Pakistani military and polity will claim that it has been able to soften Israel’s position on Islamabad. 

Why Israel, The West Should Be Cautious

It would only be prudent for Tel Aviv to treat any contact with Islamabad with caution, given its own fight against extremism. The West has realised the hard way that Pakistan can hardly be a reliable partner in the fight against international terror, in what has been a vindication of India’s position. 

Buoyed by the support from the US and China, Pakistan’s goal now is to create circumstances to force India to launch peace talks and build on its geography and boost its economy with its lofty goal to match New Delhi’s rising power. 

It feels that the time is opportune to strike the iron while it is hot. This has obviously raised the cost for India and created the sense that New Delhi, despite its economic heft and leadership role in the Global South, has not read the situation well. 

Gaps have surfaced in India’s strategy to counter Pakistan and keep it off the headlines. It would therefore be prudent to reimagine and redraw its strategy in the extended neighbourhood. 

What India Needs To Do

While plain speaking with the US on Pakistan is the need of the hour, it is also important to expand diplomatic outreach in the extended neighbourhood in both East and West. Regular high-level visits to the key capitals in the Arab world will give these countries confidence in India. 

This can be pursued without disturbing India’s robust ties with Israel. Simultaneously, India needs to pursue a proactive policy to position itself as a key interlocutor in the Israel-Palestine impasse to blunt Pakistan’s so-called Palestine policy. 

On the policy related to the East and Far East, cultivating Indonesia and Malaysia is equally necessary to blunt Pakistan’s outreach across the Muslim majority nations. It is important to open channels of communication with some of Pakistan’s close allies and work to soften their reservations against India. The goal of diplomacy is to open doors and not to shut them. India has enough arsenal and goodwill to overcome the Pakistan challenge. It needs to act.

(The writer is a commentator on geo-politics and geo-economics. Views are personal.)