Sat, Nov 09, 2024
The tiny archipelago of Maldives, which is in the news for all the wrong reasons, is for the larger powers – India, China and the US – a vital piece of terra firma that lies astride geostrategic sea routes with access to rare mineral wealth.
The brouhaha over derogatory comments made by three Maldivian ministers about India and her Prime Minister and the subsequent attempt by the Maldives government to paper it over by suspending the offending trio, has brought the strategically located chin of islands back into focus.
India delivered a rap on the knuckles by calling Male's envoy in Delhi and informing him that the comments were unwarranted and behaviour unacceptable.
The row has, however, since escalated with social media calls for boycotting Maldives, a nation with which India has a long association rooted in mutual cooperation and strong cultural and linguistic ties.
Until October last year, we have to remember, it also had a President, Ibrahim Mohamed Soli who publicly followed a policy called "India First", which gave primacy to the island nation's relations with its larger neighbour.
The elections which brought the current regime to power was strongly contested and nearly half of the island nation's population voted in favour of Soli's "India First" policies. It required a run-off to the first round of elections to determine who would be the final winner, a sign that India still enjoys strong support among ordinary Maldivians.
Maldivian leaders and common citizens were also the first to protest the anti-India remarks by the three offending ministers and to force the current President, Mohamed Muizzo, to distance the island nation from these offensive comments and order suspension of his cabinet colleagues even as he embarked on a trip to China.
India has moved on in full realisation of both its own strength as also the geo-strategic and geo-economic position of the tiny island group.The sea lanes linking East Asia to the Middle East pass by Maldives and this has heightened the competition between India, which has traditionally been the numero uno among naval powers in the region, and China, which has been spreading its tentacles in the Indo-Pacific.
The Indian Ocean is strategically important for most countries around the globe as 80 per cent of the world’s sea-borne oil and trade transits through this region.
India’s modest military base in a small island in the Maldives is intended mainly to keep its eyes and ears on a region plagued by wars and piracy, which could threaten its US$ 500 billion a year foreign trade, especially its vital oil imports.
China, too, has the same interests in the region. Additionally, it worries that its rivals could hamper the Communist-ruled nation's strategic oil supplies in case of a “new cold war”. Hence, Beijing has been bolstering its presence in the region by setting up bases in Djibouti near Somalia, Gwadar in Pakistan’s Balochistan, and Sittwe in Myanmar, besides aggressively wooing island states to its fold including both Maldives and Sri Lanka.
Maldives’ President Mohamed Muizzu, who reached China on Monday on a five-day state visit, is believed to be in favour of closer relations with China and has been critical of the Indian military presence on the archipelago. Many experts believe his decision to choose China over India for a state visit after assuming office might be signalling a shift in the island nation's foreign policy and strategic priorities. Convention has it that every Maldivian president, on assuming office, visits India first.
However, China’s Global Times newspaper, largely seen as reflective of the official Chinese government's thinking, asserted in an editorial asserted, “Muizzu’s decision to visit China before India does not necessarily reflect that he is pro-China and anti-India.” On his part, Muizzu, according to his office, sees China as one of Maldives' "closest allies and development partners."
The two countries are expected to hold talks which could dovetail Maldives into China’s plans to strengthen its 'Belt and Road Initiative' in the Indian Ocean Region.
The US, the world’s leading trading nation, which also has the largest naval presence in the Indian Ocean is believed to be keenly watching how things unfold in the Maldives and its relations with both India and China. Maldives though a blip on the map for the Americans, has assumed significance of late, though, till now, Washington has largely depended on India to look after this vital part of the ocean.
“Maldives remains an important partner for us and the fact that its government acted swiftly against some of its ministers who made unseemly comments about India, without us prompting them to do so, simply show that the ties between the two countries remain despite changes in government,” said Shantanu Mukharji, former National Security Advisor to Mauritius and a foreign policy expert.
India needs to play its cards diplomatically in the strategically located island chain not only because geo-strategic interests are at stake but also because it is geo-economically an important locale.
The region is rich with vital polymetallic nodules including rare earth minerals, much needed in the manufacture of certain high-tech defence equipment, smartphones, new generation laptops, electric vehicles, solar panels to name a few of the new age industries which form the core of the move towards a ‘green world’.
India has been given exclusive rights by the International Seabed Authority to explore 75,000 square km of the central Indian Ocean basin, where Maldives is located.
“We have already made significant progress in deep sea mining and naturally would want to use Maldives as a partner and a base for some of our work,” said a senior official in India’s Ministry of External Affairs.
Under the circumstances, clever diplomacy and people-to-people contact and stress on India’s all-weather role in protecting and aiding Maldives will continue to be stressed, even as “new friends” line up to woo the strategic island.
“In the 1980s, it was India which rushed troops to save the island nation from being taken over by mercenaries and Maldivians still acknowledge that,” pointed out Mukharji.