Ironically, China’s first overseas air force base is located at Laos’ Ban Keun Airport, earlier known as “Lima Site 44” and used by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) as a covert logistics and support base during the Vietnam War.

Satellite images show a 2,000-metre runway, taxiway, and parking apron for 22 aircraft, with eight Hongdu JL-8 two-seater training-cum-light-attack jets and more than 24 military vehicles already present.  

Laos is part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which the US and India oppose.

The Laos part of BRI China claims the new air base aims to train Laos Air Force pilots and is “not ​directed against any third party”.

Inaugurated by President Xi Jinping in 2013, BRI is a massive international infrastructure project involving ports, railways, highways, power stations, aviation and telecommunications in more than 100 countries.

Under BRI, China starts overseas infrastructure projects that also lay the groundwork for military use. The civilian-military integration is part of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) strategic expansionist policy.

For example, China began with the Laos–China Railway, Vientiane–Boten Expressway, Nam Ou River Cascade Hydropower Project, Power Grid Integration and special economic zones, culminating in the air base.

Laos is also part of several BRI nations — Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, and others — that are either linked with or use China’s BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS).

Although a global navigation satellite system, BeiDou helps track and monitor moving vehicles and ships by providing real-time location data the PLA can use.

String Of Pearls And India

The biggest danger to India is China’s unofficial “String of Pearls”, the BRI’s maritime front, a geopolitical strategy aimed at encircling India in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) by establishing a network of dual-use ports.

The strategy — stretching from China and the IOR to the Horn of Africa and the Persian Gulf —involves constructing overseas Chinese-controlled dual-use ports and integrating them with industrial parks, including shipbuilding and logistics, so that Chinese warships and submarines can dock there.

These ports are located near critical maritime chokepoints and lanes, such as the Straits of Hormuz, Malacca, and Mandeb, to help the PLA Navy (PLAN) project power in the Indo-Pacific.

In a conflict with India, PLAN will utilise these ports to dock its warships and submarines and also as logistics bases.

Of particular concern are the Hambantota Port, Sri Lanka; Gwadar Port, Pakistan; Chittagong Port, Bangladesh; Kyaukpyu Port, Myanmar; Ream Naval Base, Cambodia; and the People’s Liberation Army Support Base, Djibouti.

In 2014, a Chinese diesel-electric attack submarine and a nuclear attack submarine docked at the Colombo Port.

In 2023, a diesel-electric attack submarine docked at Karachi Port as part of Sea Guardian-3 exercises.

In 2016, Google Earth satellite imagery showed a nuclear attack submarine docked at the Karachi Port.

In 2015, a Yuan-class air-independent propulsion submarine docked twice at the Karachi Port.

Moreover, Chinese aircraft carriers could also dock at Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Cambodia, targeting Indian naval bases and coastal defence.

The J-15, a twin-engine, 4.5-generation multirole fighter, operates from carriers like the Liaoning and Shandong while the J-15T operates from the Fujian.

China’s second fifth-generation fighter, the J-35, can operate from all three carriers. China’s sixth-generation fighters, the J-36 (naval variant) and the carrier-based J-50—both in prototype phase—will enhance the PLA’s dominance in the Indo-Pacific, challenging both India and the US.

China’s Malacca Dilemma And India

China, whose military doctrine, strategy and modernisation are US-centric, has now gained a strategic foothold in Southeast Asia given its rivalry with the US in the South China Sea (SCS) or the Taiwan Strait.

India is also part of China’s strategic equation. In a conflict, India will face the same PLA war machine, especially in the IOR. Therefore, India can’t afford to overlook China’s Laos air base.

Construction at the air base suggests China is planning a longer runway that can accommodate bombers — the Xi’an H-6 and Xi’an H-20 (under development)—and AEW&C aircraft, such as the KJ-500, KJ-2000 and KJ-3000 (under development).

Laos might be landlocked, but a full-fledged air base with fighters, bombers and surveillance aircraft, air defences and ammunition, and fuel depots will be a big deterrent against the adversary.

The first is China’s Malacca Dilemma, a term coined by former President Hu Jintao to describe Beijing’s strategic vulnerability due to its dependence on oil imports.

The Strait of Malacca is a strategic chokepoint only around 3 km wide that connects the Indian Ocean to the SCS and the Pacific. Around 90% of total petroleum flows annually through the strait, including almost 80% of China’s crude oil imports.

The Laos air base will play a critical role in securing Chinese crude oil imports if India strangles it during a conflict.

India has a big advantage with the Andaman and Nicobar Command, the first and only unified tri-service theatre command, from where warships and Su-30MKIs and Jaguar IMs (Car Nicobar Air Force Station) can target the Strait of Malacca.

In 2020, naval author and creator of the Harpoon war game series, Larry Bond said, “If India wanted to cut off trade with China, all that they have to do is park a bunch of ships at the Strait of Malacca. And that’s it, nothing else is getting through that way.”

Now, India has decided to develop a dual-use airport near Chingen and Galathea Bay, near Great Nicobar Island, the southernmost and largest island of the Nicobar archipelago, to counter an attack launched from the eastern Indian Ocean and the Strait of Malacca.

If China’s crude flow is disrupted, Beijing will be forced to use the Straits of Sunda, Lombok, and Ombai-Wetar, located farther east, adding transportation costs and time.

On the other hand, if the Laos air base expands to host fighter jets — J-10, J-11, J-16, J-20 and J-35A — and bombers, China can counter Indian moves to choke the strait.

Moreover, combined with warships and nuclear attack submarines docked at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base, China will have both naval and air power to counter India.

(The writer is a columnist and journalist. Views expressed are personal.)